The Top Half of the Chart: Why Gary Glover Avoids ASX Stocks Trading in the Bottom Half of Their Range — and What Overhead Supply Does to a Rally
- Christopher Hall
- Aug 14
- 14 min read
Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated August 2026
Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)
Overhead supply on the ASX is the stock held by investors who bought at higher prices and are sitting on losses — and it is the reason a chart can look perfect and still fail. Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), who reviews ASX momentum stocks in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points, applies one positional filter before he assesses any pattern: the price must sit in the top half of its own twelve-month range. William O'Neil reached the same conclusion from a different direction more than fifty years ago. This article covers what the filter is, why overhead supply caps a rally, the two clocks that clear it, the single exception, what it does to position size, and what it ruled in and out on the ASX in the week to 14 August 2026.
Gary Glover reviews the ASX momentum leaders and Launch Pad entries for the week to 14 August 2026, and explains the overhead supply that keeps a bottom-half chart from running.
The filter was stated into an unusually constructive market. The FMP Momentum Profile — published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — showed the following readings at the time of the 14 August 2026 session:
Reading | Value at 14 August 2026 |
Momentum profile percentile | Better than 62% of all observations |
ASX tradable companies above their 50-day moving average | 66% |
Momentum tradability versus normal conditions | 9% easier than normal |
Share of that week's momentum leaders that came from the Launch Pad | ~90% |
What does "the top half of the chart" mean, and why is it the first filter?
The test is positional rather than technical. It asks one question — where does the current price sit inside the stock's own twelve-month range — and it runs before any assessment of pattern quality. Gary Glover put it plainly in the members session on 14 August 2026:
"It takes a long time to train the brain to stay in the top half… if you're looking at one year's data and you're not in the top half of the chart, I just avoid it personally." — Gary Glover, FMP members session, 20:20, 14 August 2026
The members session of 14 August 2026, in which Gary Glover states the top-half filter and the consolidation time a stock needs after a large advance.
This is a practitioner observation developed across Gary Glover's trading career, not a formal study. Its value is its cost: the check takes seconds and removes most of the tradable universe in one pass, before any time is spent judging pattern quality. With 66% of tradable ASX companies above their 50-day moving average on 14 August 2026, a great many charts looked constructive that week — and a positional filter is what separates them.
Christopher Hall described being taught the same discipline early in his career, where an idea below the top half of the chart was rejected before it could be argued:
"I could only put forward an idea if it was in the top right of the chart. Otherwise… you've got better opportunities in other places to make money." — Christopher Hall, FMP members session, 20:20, 14 August 2026
He named the lineage as Jesse Livermore's preference for probing into new-high territory, without citing a published source.
The four-part test
Drawing on Gary Glover's practitioner approach, developed across his trading career and synthesised from the 14 August 2026 session:
Take one year of daily data for the stock — twelve months, not three and not five.
Find the midpoint of the highest and lowest prices across that window.
Locate the current price against that midpoint. Above it is the top half.
Stop there if it fails. A stock below the midpoint is set aside before its pattern is assessed, not after.
Alliance Aviation (ASX: AQZ) is the illustration Gary Glover gave. A good result gapped the stock higher, and the selling arrived on the very first day — the response of a stock carrying a year of holders above the price rather than a verdict on the result itself. Traders screening for this condition systematically may find the Momentum Profile filter system a useful complement.
What is overhead supply, and how does it cap an ASX rally?
Overhead supply is the accumulated stock of buyers who are underwater, and every rally back toward their entry price releases some of them. These are not sellers taking profits. They are sellers escaping, and they arrive precisely where an advance needs demand instead.
Think of it as a crowded exit. In a room where nobody wants to leave, one person walks out unimpeded. When two hundred people all want out at once, the door itself becomes the constraint — and the rally back to their entry price is what opens the door.
Gary Glover described the inverse condition in the public session:
"The market moves a lot freer… if everyone's winning and the market's powering on higher, then nobody's panic selling or selling to liquidate a loss." — Gary Glover, FMP public session, 18:10, 14 August 2026
William O'Neil, whose quantitative work at Investor's Business Daily and MarketSmith built the CAN SLIM methodology, reached the same conclusion from the opposite direction:
"The first thing I learned about how to get superior performance is not to buy stocks that are near their lows, but to buy stocks that are coming out of broad bases and beginning to make new highs." — William O'Neil, How to Make Money in Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2009)
O'Neil's quantitative analysis of 3,000+ of the greatest stock market winners from 1880 to the present, as documented in How to Make Money in Stocks (2009) and further detailed in IBD and MarketSmith coaching materials, found that 90.77% broke out from sound bases during confirmed Stage 2 uptrends.
The contrast within a single session makes the point. Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) was described by Gary Glover as fighting the tape across roughly three years of prior trading, with the stock sitting well below where most of its holders bought. Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM), trading up near its highs, returned to a new high in quick time. The difference was not setup quality but the population above the price. The same logic governs how far each can fall before the trend is in question — a distinction covered in why miners retrace further than industrials.
How long does it take for overhead supply to clear?
Two clocks run at once, and they are frequently confused. The first is the decay of trapped holders, measured in years. The second is base construction after a large advance, measured in months.
On the first, Gary Glover's chart measurement during the public session was that roughly three to four years of passing time clears most of the wash.
On the second, his anecdotal observation from the members session concerns what happens after a stock has already run hard:
"That pause can be a minimum of sort of three months… a lot of them are in that five to seven, and some can go out to nine." — Gary Glover, FMP members session, 03:00, 14 August 2026
After a first leg of | Typical pause before a second leg | Frequency in Gary Glover's observation |
200–800% | 3 months | The minimum — uncommon |
200–800% | 5–7 months | The most common band |
200–800% | 9 months, occasionally longer | The tail |
This applies to the ASX stocks Gary Glover reviews in these sessions, and it is a practitioner observation rather than a tested parameter. He drew the parallel himself to a US practitioner he follows, who waits for the same structure on a three-to-five-day clock — the shape is scale-invariant rather than particular to one timeframe.
When the wait compresses
The exception is a market where momentum conditions are exceptional and high tight flag patterns are abundant across the small-cap universe. Christopher Hall's study of approximately 380 high tight flag patterns across ASX small and mid-cap stocks (FMP proprietary research, 2021–2025) shows that stocks forming tight, sideways consolidations after an initial 50–100% vertical move frequently produce a second flagpole of comparable size. In those conditions the pause can compress to a few weeks. The 14 August 2026 readings, constructive as they were, were not that environment — which is why the months-long expectation still applied.
Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) sat mid-range that week, a position where most holders from the past year are in the money and only the older ones are not — structurally a very different stock from one at a third of its high. The mechanics of that sideways phase are examined in how corrective trends develop in ASX momentum stocks.
The FMP Momentum Profile — published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — included the market-breadth and momentum-percentile readings discussed above at the time of the 14 August 2026 session, giving members early access to the educational data discussed in this article.
When is a stock in the bottom half worth an exception?
Gary Glover allows one exception, and he defines it narrowly: something totally abnormal — heavy volume paired with a genuinely tight consolidation. He is explicit that it remains the harder trade, because the position still has to work upward through everyone who bought higher.
The distinction between testing that exception and rationalising it comes down to preparation. His instruction was to study the individual stock first:
"Go back and look at the last five years, the price action, just see its nature, learn it… learn its character, learn its personality." — Gary Glover, FMP public session, 29:00, 14 August 2026
The reading is done bar by bar, not pattern by pattern. Gary Glover named David Weis's Trades About to Happen: A Modern Adaptation of the Wyckoff Method (Wiley, 2013) as the source he had been working through, and described the method it teaches:
"You're looking at individual bars, and you might be analysing three bars together… looking at the last seven bars, how the price is interacting." — Gary Glover, FMP public session, 07:00, 14 August 2026
Weis's adaptation of Richard Wyckoff's work reads each bar as a relationship between effort and result — the range covered against the volume required to cover it. A wide-range down day on tiny volume is a stock falling through empty air rather than one being sold, which is the reading that separates a genuine washout from active distribution. In a bottom-half stock, that distinction is the whole test: heavy volume into a tight range says the overhead is being absorbed, while light volume on the advance says it is still waiting above.
This matters because "deep" is not a fixed quantity. Retracement tolerance is set by security class, and Gary Glover's chart measurement separates the two:
Security class | Typical give-back of the prior advance |
Industrials | ~50% |
Mining stocks | ~three-quarters of the range |
Reading a miner's decline against an industrial's tolerance mistakes normal movement for failure. The uranium names on that week's Launch Pad — NexGen Energy (ASX: NXG), Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN), Silex Systems (ASX: SLX), Bannerman Energy (ASX: BMN) and Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) — were the group Gary Glover singled out as gap-prone and V-shaped. His stated plan was to spend the weekend studying how far that sector historically comes back rather than trading it blind. The method behind that work is set out in the chart personality methodology.
How does the top-half filter change entry and position size?
The filter changes the size of the first commitment, not only the choice of stock. Where overhead supply is thin, a position can be built into strength. Where it is thick, the same exposure has to be assembled in smaller pieces, because the pullbacks along the way are deeper and faster.
Gary Glover described his own sizing during the 14 August 2026 session. Position sizing is a general trading discipline rather than a Finer Market Points concept; the systematised version is Richard Redpath's position-building methodology.
Building in:
Open at approximately 10% of the intended full weighting.
Build toward 20% as the stock continues to behave.
In gap-prone sectors, assemble the same exposure in 5% clips instead — Bannerman Energy (ASX: BMN) was his example, in a sector that gaps in both directions.
Trimming out:
Gary Glover disclosed cutting a gold weighting from roughly 40% to 20% into strength during the session. This disclosure is made in accordance with the Gary Glover Source Disclaimer at the end of this article.
The purpose he stated was to move the trade to at least break-even, so the position goes home profitable regardless of what follows.
The remainder continues to run, and exposure can be rebuilt if the stock pulls back on light volume rather than heavy selling.
What did the top-half filter rule in and out on the ASX in August 2026?
Applied to the week to 14 August 2026, the filter split a strong-looking momentum list into two groups that a pattern scan alone would have treated identically. That is the week the filter earns its keep: with momentum conditions better than 62% of all observations and roughly 90% of that week's leaders arriving from the Launch Pad, a rising tape lifts bottom-half stocks far enough to look like setups.
Stock | Position in its own range | What Gary Glover observed |
Benz Mining (ASX: BNZ) | Top half | A prior contraction resolved upward; consolidation holding, volume light on down days |
Lindian Resources (ASX: LIN) | Top quartile | Tightening after a strong run, with volume drying up |
Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) | Near highs | Returned to a new high in quick time |
Alliance Aviation (ASX: AQZ) | Bottom half | A good result gapped the stock up and was met with selling on day one |
Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) | Bottom half | Fighting roughly three years of overhead; the laggard of its sector cohort |
Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
The pattern quality across those five was not the discriminator. Position within the range was.
Conclusion
Three things carry forward from the 14 August 2026 session. The filter is positional and runs before any pattern work, which is what makes it cheap enough to apply to a whole list. Overhead supply on the ASX is a seller-behaviour mechanism rather than a chart artefact — it is the population of holders above the price, and it releases stock into exactly the rallies that need buyers. And the clearing time runs on two clocks: months for a base to build after a large advance, years for trapped holders to disappear. The condition worth watching from here is whether the roughly 90% Launch Pad share of momentum leaders holds through the back half of reporting season, since that is what made this particular list unusually tradable. The supporting Momentum Profile data from the 14 August 2026 session is accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members.
The analysis in this article draws on Gary Glover's recorded session and the FMP Momentum Profile data, which is published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members. Members receive early access to the educational data that forms the basis of articles like this one. The momentum-profile percentile and 50-day breadth readings at the time of the 14 August 2026 session are available to members. For information on FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership, visit the FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership page.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is overhead supply in share trading?
Overhead supply is stock held by investors who bought at higher prices and are sitting on losses. As the price rallies back toward their entry, those holders sell to escape at break-even, adding supply precisely where an advance needs demand. The effect is heaviest in a stock that has fallen a long way on heavy volume. It decays as holders capitulate or as time passes — Gary Glover's anecdotal observation is that three to four years clears most of it.
How do I tell if an ASX stock is in the top half of its chart?
Take one year of daily data, find the highest and lowest prices over those twelve months, and check whether the current price sits above the midpoint. Above the midpoint is the top half. Gary Glover applies this before any pattern work, on the reasoning that a textbook setup below the midpoint still has to trade back through everyone who bought higher.
Why do stocks near 52-week highs outperform stocks near their lows?
A stock at a new high has no holders sitting on losses, so nobody is selling to recover one. William O'Neil's quantitative analysis of 3,000+ of the greatest stock market winners from 1880 to the present, documented in How to Make Money in Stocks (2009) and IBD and MarketSmith coaching materials, found that 90.77% broke out from sound bases during confirmed Stage 2 uptrends. Stocks near their lows carry the opposite condition — layers of trapped holders above the price.
How long does a stock need to consolidate after a big run before it can rally again?
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career on the ASX stocks he reviews, is that a stock which has advanced 200% to 800% pauses for a minimum of about three months, most commonly five to seven, and sometimes as long as nine. This is a practitioner observation, not a formal study. The exception is a market where momentum conditions are exceptional and high tight flags are abundant, when the pause can compress to a few weeks.
Is it ever worth buying an ASX stock in the bottom half of its range?
Gary Glover allows one narrow exception — something he describes as totally abnormal: heavy volume paired with a genuinely tight consolidation. He is explicit that it remains the harder trade, because the position still has to work through overhead supply the whole way up. His stated preference is to study five years of that stock's own behaviour first.
Does the top-half rule work in a falling market?
The filter is relative to each stock's own twelve-month range rather than to the index, so it continues to separate stocks in a falling market — but far fewer names qualify. The FMP Momentum Profile — published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — showed 66% of tradable ASX companies above their 50-day moving average at the time of the 14 August 2026 session. In a weak tape that figure contracts, and so does the filter's output.
What position size suits a stock with heavy overhead supply?
Gary Glover described opening at roughly 10% and building toward 20% in a stock behaving well, and assembling the same exposure in 5% clips where the sector gaps in both directions — uranium being his example on 14 August 2026. Position sizing is a general trading discipline rather than a Finer Market Points concept; the systematised version of progressive position building is Richard Redpath's, covered separately. Traders may wish to speak with a qualified financial adviser before acting on any trading decision.
Sources
# | Source | Type |
1 | Gary Glover (AR 259215), Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168). Finer Market Points session, 14 August 2026 — public session and members session. | Practitioner session |
2 | Christopher Hall, Finer Market Points. FMP Momentum Profile data, 14 August 2026. | FMP proprietary data |
3 | Christopher Hall, Finer Market Points. Proprietary research — approximately 380 ASX small and mid-cap high tight flag patterns, 2021–2025. | FMP proprietary data |
4 | William O'Neil. How to Make Money in Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2009); IBD / MarketSmith coaching materials. | Published research |
5 | David Weis. Trades About to Happen: A Modern Adaptation of the Wyckoff Method (Wiley, 2013). | Published research |
6 | Pradeep Bonde. Referenced by Gary Glover, 14 August 2026 session. No published source confirmed. | Session reference |
7 | Jesse Livermore. Referenced by Christopher Hall, 14 August 2026 session. No published source confirmed. | Session reference |
All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.
Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources
How to Find the Best ASX Stocks When the Market Turns: The Momentum Profile Filter System — Christopher Hall
How Deep Should an ASX Pullback Go? Retracement Depth for the Index, Industrials and Miners — Christopher Hall
Bill McLaren's Corrective Trend Framework: How Sideways Consolidation in ASX Leading Stocks Signals the Biggest Breakouts — Christopher Hall
Why the Best Momentum Traders Study the Same Stocks Repeatedly — Christopher Hall
Relative Strength Ratings, ATR Extensions and Progressive Exposure — Christopher Hall
This article is based on analysis and commentary provided by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded market analysis session on 14 August 2026. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes. Gary Glover has not independently reviewed or endorsed this publication.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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