The Hard Penny Market: Gary Glover's Two Adjustments for Trading ASX Momentum When Moves Stop Following Through

Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated July 2026

Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)

A hard penny market is a momentum regime where trade setups still trigger but the moves fail to follow through — breakouts start, then stall and pull back into the range before the gain that pays for the risk arrives. The phrase belongs to Mark Minervini; on the ASX it describes the conditions Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), reviewed in his 3 July 2026 session, with the FMP Momentum Profile flatlined for roughly three months. Gary's response is not to stop trading but to make two adjustments — trade lighter and trade tighter. This article explains what a hard penny market is, why the approach has to change, how each adjustment works, and how to still find the few names worth trading.

What is a "hard penny market"?

A hard penny market is a low-yield momentum regime in which setups still trigger but the follow-through fails to arrive. The term comes from Mark Minervini, and it captures a tape where the work required to make a gain rises while the size of the gain falls. Gary Glover, who reviews ASX momentum stocks in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points, noted during the 3 July 2026 session that the market had not been a runaway one for months: the FMP Momentum Profile — published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — had been flatlined for roughly three months at the time of the session, and the ability to find a clean 10% gain was, in his words, lacklustre. This is a practitioner observation, not a formal study.

The mechanism is in the shape of the pullbacks. In a healthy trend a leader breaks out, runs, then rests sideways on light volume before the next leg. In a hard penny market the rest is missing — the pullback snaps straight back into the range, and a trailing stop moved up to breakeven is caught before the trade can pay. Gary described this as his most frequent current outcome:

"Getting set, getting a nice move, getting myself to break even and then getting knocked out — that seems to be the most prominent trade currently going on. It feels like Groundhog Day." — Gary Glover, 3 July 2026 session

The tell is not one failed trade but a pattern of them, alongside a broader loss of leadership. Gary noted more names than usual across the Top 30 momentum list breaking their moving averages, with back-to-back selling days — the same weak-tape backdrop that produces clusters of distribution days that warn of a forming top. The signs a market has turned hard:

• Breakouts trigger but stall instead of extending.

• Pullbacks snap straight back into the range rather than holding sideways on light volume.

• Trailing stops reach breakeven, then get knocked out.

• More leaders than usual break their moving averages, with distribution days clustering.

Why do momentum traders need to change their approach when moves stop following through?

When follow-through disappears, holding a normal-size position to a normal target quietly converts small winners into breakeven-or-worse trades. The setup did not fail — the regime changed — so the correct response is to protect capital rather than force gains out of a tape that is not paying them.

Think of it like panning a worked-out creek. In a rich season the pan turns up nuggets, and a prospector can afford to move a lot of gravel chasing them. In a hard penny market the same creek yields fine flakes, not nuggets — so the prospector moves less material and banks the small flakes rather than holding out for a nugget that is not there. Trading lighter and tighter is the same discipline applied to a portfolio.

There is a timing logic underneath it. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that the bulk of a year's gains tend to be made in only about 20–25% of the year, with the remaining weeks spent keeping losses small. A hard penny market is one of those remaining stretches — a period to preserve capital and stay solvent for the window when conditions turn, not to trade at full size into weakness. This is the same reasoning behind the handful of weeks each year that produce most of the gains.

How does trading "lighter" work — reducing position size?

The first adjustment is size: trade lighter than normal so a failed follow-through costs less, and add only if the move proves itself. Gary framed the pair of changes simply:

"Two things we want to be doing is probably trading a little lighter than normal, and a little tighter than normal as well." — Gary Glover, 3 July 2026 session

In practice, lighter means starting with a partial position rather than a full one. Gary noted during the session that he will "get a small position on just in case it keeps going," then add back to it on a pullback toward a moving average rather than chasing an extended entry — because in a hard penny market a chased entry tends to throw straight back the next day. The starter position keeps a trader in the game if the move works while capping the damage if it does not.

Adjustment	What changes	Why
Trade lighter	Smaller position size; start with a partial parcel	A failed follow-through costs less; leaves room to add only if the move confirms
Trade tighter	Smaller profit target; reward-to-risk compressed	Banks a realistic gain instead of holding out for a runaway that is not coming

The point of the starter-and-add approach is that capital is committed as the stock confirms, not before. Each addition is earned by price, which is a very different posture from sizing up on conviction into a market that keeps stalling.

The weekly Top 30 ASX momentum data Gary Glover reviews — the same research behind these observations — is available to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members 19 hours before the Gary Glover weekly session goes live, as early access to the educational data discussed in this article.

How does trading "tighter" work — compressing targets and reward-to-risk?

The second adjustment is the target: keep risk tight and accept a smaller gain, rather than holding out for a runaway move that is not coming. Gary noted that where a strong market might justify a reward-to-risk of 3-to-1, 4-to-1 or even 5-to-1, a hard penny market often forces professionals down toward 2.5-to-1, and sometimes 2-to-1 — still trading the same setups, just banking less from each.

That instinct is not unique to the ASX. Mark Minervini describes tightening stops as market quality deteriorates:

"We're averaging anywhere between, if we're really tight, 3%, 3.5%, 4%. In a market that's not very good we might be five, six percent. Line in the sand at 8%." — Mark Minervini, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (2013)

Minervini traces the 8% ceiling to William O'Neil, whose How to Make Money in Stocks (2009) sets the same discipline: beyond roughly 10%, losses begin to work geometrically against the account — a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to recover. Tighter targets and tighter stops are two sides of protecting that maths in a market that is not rewarding risk. This is the same conclusion behind why momentum breakouts stop working and it pays to wait for a moving-average pullback.

The too-tight-stop trap

There is a limit to "tighter," and Gary illustrated it with one of his own trades. He noted during the 3 July session that he took a range break in Zip Co (ASX: ZIP), but his stop was set too tight and he was knocked out the next day; the stock then went sideways in a tight range with no aggressive selling — the throwback was noise, not a failure. The lesson is that "tighter" belongs on the target and the position size, not on a stop set so close that a normal pullback triggers it. In a hard penny market, where roughly three-quarters of moves throw back the next day, a stop needs enough room to survive the noise while the position stays small enough that the risk is still contained.

Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.

How do you still find the few names worth trading in a weak market?

Even in a hard penny market a thin cohort of genuine leaders keeps working — names in the top few percent of relative strength that hold the 10-day moving average and pull back on light volume. Selection tightens as the market weakens, because the pool of stocks actually paying is smaller.

The scale of that concentration is the argument for being selective. In Gary Glover's own compilation of ASX 300 performance for the 2026 financial year — his session observation of one index over one year, not a formal study — roughly 45% of stocks were profitable, and the year's returns were concentrated in the top decile. The full ranking of the best and worst ASX performers of FY2026 is covered separately, but the takeaway for a hard penny market is simple: a thin band of leaders does the work, so the job is to trade that band, not the laggards.

Gary contrasted two sources of new names. Genuine leaders emerge from strength — holding their moving averages, pulling back on drying volume. The names surfacing on the FMP Launch Pad this week, by contrast, were mostly emerging from weakness, carrying heavy overhead supply from prior declines, and he flagged the late-stage risk of "dogs barking" — beaten-down laggards jumping at the end of a cycle as a warning sign rather than a green light. The way leaders reveal themselves is through how they hold the 10-day and 20-day moving averages on light-volume pullbacks.

Among the names Gary reviewed on 3 July, the ones behaving like leaders shared that signature: FortifAI (ASX: FTI) held its base through a dry-volume handle; Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL) formed a higher handle and broke out on a heavy-volume pivot day while hugging its 20-day; Jade Gas Holdings (ASX: JGH) built a tight handle just under a 52-week high while holding its 10-day; and Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) held its 10-day through a tight consolidation. These are illustrations of the leadership signature, not recommendations.

Conclusion

A hard penny market is not a signal to stop — it is a signal to adjust. Setups still trigger, but moves fail to follow through, so Gary Glover's response is two changes: trade lighter, committing less capital and adding only as a move confirms, and trade tighter, compressing profit targets and reward-to-risk rather than holding out for a runaway that is not coming. Selection narrows to the thin band of genuine leaders holding their moving averages on light volume. The thing to watch for a change of regime is the FMP Momentum Profile lifting off its flatline and back-to-back distribution days easing — an observation, not a trading signal. The same FMP Momentum Profile data Gary reviews each week, including the Top 30 momentum list and Launch Pad, is available to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members as early access to the educational research behind analysis like this.

Finer Market Points publishes the FMP Momentum Profile daily — the Top 30 ASX momentum list and Launch Pad that frame which names are still worth trading in a hard penny market. FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members access this proprietary research and receive the weekly Top 30 data 19 hours before the Gary Glover weekly session goes live, as early access to the educational data discussed in this article. For information on FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership, visit the membership page.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a hard penny market?

A hard penny market is a low-yield momentum regime — a phrase Gary Glover borrows from Mark Minervini — where trade setups still trigger but the follow-through that pays for the risk does not arrive: moves stall and pullbacks snap back into the range. In these conditions Gary keeps trading but adjusts, trading lighter (smaller size) and tighter (smaller targets and reward-to-risk).

How should position sizing change in a difficult momentum market?

Gary Glover's anecdotal approach is to trade lighter than normal: take a smaller starter position so a failed follow-through costs less, then add only if the move proves itself — ideally on a pullback toward a moving average rather than chasing an extended entry. Position sizing, not conviction, does the risk control when moves are not following through.

What reward-to-risk ratio do momentum traders use when trends aren't following through?

Gary noted that where a strong market might justify a 3-to-1, 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 reward-to-risk, a hard penny market often forces professionals down toward about 2.5-to-1, and sometimes 2-to-1 — keeping risk tight and banking a smaller gain rather than holding out for a runaway move that is not coming.

Why do momentum traders keep getting stopped out at breakeven?

When moves do not follow through, a trailing stop moved up to breakeven is repeatedly caught by the sharp pullbacks typical of a hard penny market. Gary described this as his most frequent current outcome — get set, get an initial move, reach breakeven, then get knocked out. It reflects the regime, not a flawed setup.

Should a trader stop trading altogether in a weak momentum market?

Not necessarily. Gary's approach is to keep trading selected leaders but lighter and tighter, prioritising capital preservation. He notes the bulk of a year's gains tend to come in a minority of weeks, so the goal in the rest is to lose little. Traders unsure of their own approach may wish to speak with a qualified financial adviser.

What share of ASX stocks actually drives the yearly gains?

In Gary Glover's session compilation of ASX 300 performance for FY2026, roughly 45% of stocks were profitable and the strongest returns were concentrated in the top decile — the reason selection tightens as the market weakens. This is Gary's session observation of a specific index and period, not a formal study; the full breakdown is covered in a separate article.

Does Mark Minervini keep trading in a hard penny market?

By Minervini's own account he keeps trading his setups but adjusts, tightening stops — averaging around 4–6% in a poor market, with 8% the "line in the sand" — and accepting smaller gains. The principle Gary applies on the ASX is the same: adapt size and targets to the regime rather than abandoning the method.

Sources

#	Source	Type
1	Gary Glover session, 3 July 2026, and the FMP Momentum Profile	Practitioner session / FMP proprietary data
2	Mark Minervini, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (2013)	Published research
3	William O'Neil, How to Make Money in Stocks (2009)	Published research

All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.

Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources:

• When ASX Momentum Breakouts Stop Working: the 50-Day Extension Rule — Christopher Hall

• What Distribution Days Reveal About a Forming Market Top — Christopher Hall

• ASX Momentum Trading Conditions: the Weeks That Drive Annual Gains — Christopher Hall

• Moving Averages for ASX Momentum Stocks — Christopher Hall

• Dogs of the ASX: Best and Worst ASX 200 Performers of FY2026 — Christopher Hall

This article is based on analysis and commentary provided by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded market analysis session on 3 July 2026. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes. Gary Glover has not independently reviewed or endorsed this publication.

Educational Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Consider your financial situation and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Finer Market Points Pty Ltd, CAR 1304002, AFSL 526688, ABN 87 645 284 680. This general information is educational only and not financial advice, recommendation, forecast or solicitation. Consider your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting. Seek appropriate professional advice. We accept no liability for any loss or damages arising from use. Authors and presenters may hold positions in discussed companies and investment products.