The Hard Penny Market: Gary Glover's Two Adjustments for Trading ASX Momentum When Moves Stop Following Through

Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated September 2026

Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)

A hard penny market is a momentum regime where trade setups still trigger but the moves fail to follow through — breakouts start, then stall and pull back into the range before the gain that pays for the risk arrives. The phrase belongs to Mark Minervini; on the ASX it describes the conditions Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), reviewed in his 3 July 2026 session, with the FMP Momentum Profile flatlined for roughly three months. Gary's response is not to stop trading but to make two adjustments — trade lighter and trade tighter. This article explains what a hard penny market is, why the approach has to change, how each adjustment works, and how to still find the few names worth trading.

What is a "hard penny market"?

A hard penny market is a low-yield momentum regime in which setups still trigger but the follow-through fails to arrive. The term comes from Mark Minervini, and it captures a tape where the work required to make a gain rises while the size of the gain falls. Gary Glover, who reviews ASX momentum stocks in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points, noted during the 3 July 2026 session that the market had not been a runaway one for months: the FMP Momentum Profile — published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — had been flatlined for roughly three months at the time of the session, and the ability to find a clean 10% gain was, in his words, lacklustre. This is a practitioner observation, not a formal study.

The mechanism is in the shape of the pullbacks. In a healthy trend a leader breaks out, runs, then rests sideways on light volume before the next leg. In a hard penny market the rest is missing — the pullback snaps straight back into the range, and a trailing stop moved up to breakeven is caught before the trade can pay. Gary described this as his most frequent current outcome:

"Getting set, getting a nice move, getting myself to break even and then getting knocked out — that seems to be the most prominent trade currently going on. It feels like Groundhog Day." — Gary Glover, 3 July 2026 session

The tell is not one failed trade but a pattern of them, alongside a broader loss of leadership. Gary noted more names than usual across the Top 30 momentum list breaking their moving averages, with back-to-back selling days — the same weak-tape backdrop that produces clusters of distribution days that warn of a forming top. The signs a market has turned hard:

• Breakouts trigger but stall instead of extending.

• Pullbacks snap straight back into the range rather than holding sideways on light volume.

• Trailing stops reach breakeven, then get knocked out.

• More leaders than usual break their moving averages, with distribution days clustering.

Why do momentum traders need to change their approach when moves stop following through?

When follow-through disappears, holding a normal-size position to a normal target quietly converts small winners into breakeven-or-worse trades. The setup did not fail — the regime changed — so the correct response is to protect capital rather than force gains out of a tape that is not paying them.

Think of it like panning a worked-out creek. In a rich season the pan turns up nuggets, and a prospector can afford to move a lot of gravel chasing them. In a hard penny market the same creek yields fine flakes, not nuggets — so the prospector moves less material and banks the small flakes rather than holding out for a nugget that is not there. Trading lighter and tighter is the same discipline applied to a portfolio.

There is a timing logic underneath it. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that the bulk of a year's gains tend to be made in only about 20–25% of the year, with the remaining weeks spent keeping losses small. A hard penny market is one of those remaining stretches — a period to preserve capital and stay solvent for the window when conditions turn, not to trade at full size into weakness. This is the same reasoning behind the handful of weeks each year that produce most of the gains.

How does trading "lighter" work — reducing position size?

The first adjustment is size: trade lighter than normal so a failed follow-through costs less, and add only if the move proves itself. Gary framed the pair of changes simply:

"Two things we want to be doing is probably trading a little lighter than normal, and a little tighter than normal as well." — Gary Glover, 3 July 2026 session

In practice, lighter means starting with a partial position rather than a full one. Gary noted during the session that he will "get a small position on just in case it keeps going," then add back to it on a pullback toward a moving average rather than chasing an extended entry — because in a hard penny market a chased entry tends to throw straight back the next day. The starter position keeps a trader in the game if the move works while capping the damage if it does not.

Adjustment	What changes	Why
Trade lighter	Smaller position size; start with a partial parcel	A failed follow-through costs less; leaves room to add only if the move confirms
Trade tighter	Smaller profit target; reward-to-risk compressed	Banks a realistic gain instead of holding out for a runaway that is not coming

The point of the starter-and-add approach is that capital is committed as the stock confirms, not before. Each addition is earned by price, which is a very different posture from sizing up on conviction into a market that keeps stalling.

The weekly Top 30 ASX momentum data Gary Glover reviews — the same research behind these observations — is available to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members 19 hours before the Gary Glover weekly session goes live, as early access to the educational data discussed in this article.

How does trading "tighter" work — compressing targets and reward-to-risk?

The second adjustment is the target: keep risk tight and accept a smaller gain, rather than holding out for a runaway move that is not coming. Gary noted that where a strong market might justify a reward-to-risk of 3-to-1, 4-to-1 or even 5-to-1, a hard penny market often forces professionals down toward 2.5-to-1, and sometimes 2-to-1 — still trading the same setups, just banking less from each.

That instinct is not unique to the ASX. Mark Minervini describes tightening stops as market quality deteriorates:

"We're averaging anywhere between, if we're really tight, 3%, 3.5%, 4%. In a market that's not very good we might be five, six percent. Line in the sand at 8%." — Mark Minervini, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (2013)

Minervini traces the 8% ceiling to William O'Neil, whose How to Make Money in Stocks (2009) sets the same discipline: beyond roughly 10%, losses begin to work geometrically against the account — a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to recover. Tighter targets and tighter stops are two sides of protecting that maths in a market that is not rewarding risk. This is the same conclusion behind why momentum breakouts stop working and it pays to wait for a moving-average pullback.

The too-tight-stop trap

There is a limit to "tighter," and Gary illustrated it with one of his own trades. He noted during the 3 July session that he took a range break in Zip Co (ASX: ZIP), but his stop was set too tight and he was knocked out the next day; the stock then went sideways in a tight range with no aggressive selling — the throwback was noise, not a failure. The lesson is that "tighter" belongs on the target and the position size, not on a stop set so close that a normal pullback triggers it. In a hard penny market, where roughly three-quarters of moves throw back the next day, a stop needs enough room to survive the noise while the position stays small enough that the risk is still contained.

How do you still find the few names worth trading in a weak market?

Even in a hard penny market a thin cohort of genuine leaders keeps working — names in the top few percent of relative strength that hold the 10-day moving average and pull back on light volume. Selection tightens as the market weakens, because the pool of stocks actually paying is smaller.

The scale of that concentration is the argument for being selective. In Gary Glover's own compilation of ASX 300 performance for the 2026 financial year — his session observation of one index over one year, not a formal study — roughly 45% of stocks were profitable, and the year's returns were concentrated in the top decile. The full ranking of the best and worst ASX performers of FY2026 is covered separately, but the takeaway for a hard penny market is simple: a thin band of leaders does the work, so the job is to trade that band, not the laggards.

Gary contrasted two sources of new names. Genuine leaders emerge from strength — holding their moving averages, pulling back on drying volume. The names surfacing on the FMP Launch Pad this week, by contrast, were mostly emerging from weakness, carrying heavy overhead supply from prior declines, and he flagged the late-stage risk of "dogs barking" — beaten-down laggards jumping at the end of a cycle as a warning sign rather than a green light. The way leaders reveal themselves is through how they hold the 10-day and 20-day moving averages on light-volume pullbacks.

Among the names Gary reviewed on 3 July, the ones behaving like leaders shared that signature: FortifAI (ASX: FTI) held its base through a dry-volume handle; Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL) formed a higher handle and broke out on a heavy-volume pivot day while hugging its 20-day; Jade Gas Holdings (ASX: JGH) built a tight handle just under a 52-week high while holding its 10-day; and Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) held its 10-day through a tight consolidation. These are illustrations of the leadership signature, not recommendations.

Update — 31 July 2026: Four Weeks On, and Where the Entry Moved

The hard penny conditions described above persisted for roughly another month, and the sharpest refinement was not to size but to where the entry is taken. In his 31 July 2026 session Gary Glover described having traded light for the previous three or four weeks and characterised the tape as a paper-cut environment — losses individually small but persistent, with capital preservation doing most of the work. The FMP Momentum Profile data reviewed at the start of that session — the same daily research available to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — put roughly 48% of tradable ASX companies above their 50-day moving average, with the likelihood of a randomly selected company gaining 10% at about 3%. Those figures describe the whole tradable ASX universe on that single date; they are a snapshot of conditions, not a forecast.

The refinement sits in where the two adjustments get applied. Rather than buying the breakout, Gary described waiting for the throwback: let the setup tighten, let the stock break a swing high, then look for the pullback toward the 10-day or 20-day moving average and position there instead. His reasoning was that in a loose tape a chased entry tends to throw straight back the next day, so the pullback offers a better entry on the same setup — consistent with the MA pullback entry method covered separately. On one name he put the difference at roughly $5.73–$5.75 on a throwback against about $6.15–$6.30 chasing the break. These are dated session observations, not recommendations.

Using an inside day to define the risk

Gary illustrated how "tighter" can be made workable rather than merely close. After a wide-range day of nearly two dollars, rather than buying into that range he described waiting for the following day to contract — an inside day running roughly $16.28 to $16.80 — then buying a break above $16.80 with the stop beneath $16.28. On a $16–17 stock that is about 52 cents, or roughly 4% of risk, against a two-dollar range the day before. The distinction matters: the inside day sets the stop by structure rather than by a percentage chosen in advance, which is what separates a workable tight stop from the too-tight stop described earlier. He then described selling a parcel into day three or four and trailing the balance toward breakeven using the moving averages. The figures are the session's illustrative numbers, not a recommendation.

Update — 14 August 2026: When the Rhythm Itself Breaks Down

Six weeks on, the hard penny conditions had eased on every breadth measure and the follow-through problem had changed shape rather than disappeared. The FMP Momentum Profile — published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — showed the momentum profile better than 62% of all observations at the time of the 14 August 2026 session, with 66% of tradable ASX companies above their 50-day moving average. On those numbers the tape was constructive. What Gary Glover described was a market that still would not hold a move.

The diagnostic he gave was about rhythm rather than direction:

"In a normal trending market, it's normally impulsive move up and a corrective decline, and then impulsive move and a corrective decline. Unfortunately we're getting impulse impulse impulse impulse." — Gary Glover, 14 August 2026 session

A normal trend alternates: the advance is impulsive, the pullback is corrective. A corrective decline is slow, overlapping and consumes time, which is what allows a trader to enter into it. When both legs are impulsive, the pullback offers no such window — the stock runs hard, then gives it back semi-aggressively, and an entry taken into the third day of a burst carries the risk of the whole move.

Study the counter-trend, not just the trend

Gary Glover's adjustment in these conditions is to read the pullback as closely as the advance. His instruction from the 14 August 2026 session was direct: "You want to study the counter-trend as much as the trend itself." This is a practitioner observation developed across his trading career, not a formal study.

What separates a tradable pullback from a warning, in his description:

The pullback shows	Reading	Response
Two or three down days, price not travelling far, holding above the 10-day, volume light	Normal and healthy — supply is not arriving	The setup remains intact
Three days sideways on lower volume, range tightening	The tradable condition in this regime	Watch for the range break out of the tightened bar
Selling accelerating, volume rising into the decline	Not what a holder wants to see	Tighten the stop

The tightening itself is the signal. Where a stock has run, paused for roughly three days without giving much back, and traded on lighter volume as it did so, the subsequent break of that small range is the entry — a construction covered in detail in narrow range day trading on ASX momentum stocks. In a market of alternating impulses, the three-day breather is the only part of the cycle that offers a definable risk.

One filter sits ahead of all of this. A pullback can look textbook and still fail if the stock is trading below the midpoint of its own twelve-month range, because the advance has to work up through everyone who bought higher — the mechanism set out in overhead supply and the top half of the chart.

These are observations from a recorded session, not recommendations. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.

When the adjustments come off

These are adaptations to a regime, not a change of method. Gary was explicit that the lighter-and-tighter posture, and the throwback entry with it, belong to a hard penny market specifically. In a stronger momentum market — when momentum scores improve and leadership broadens — the adaptation comes off: the approach reverts to running with the leading companies in the strongest themes on the best relative strength, at normal size, taking the breakout rather than waiting for it to come back to a moving average. Read the two adjustments as what a momentum trader does while waiting for that market to arrive, not as a permanent downgrade of the method.

Watch the 31 July 2026 session this update draws on: https://youtu.be/GA6SNOAPuwg

Update — 25 September 2026: Half the Risk, but Higher Caps

Gary Glover's 25 September 2026 session showed the hard penny adjustments still in force — about half the normal risk per trade — alongside a change to one of his portfolio rules: a higher cap on how much of the portfolio can sit in a single strongly trending sector. The data reviewed at the start of the session put 41% of tradable ASX companies above their 50-day moving average. Gary described the market as messy, with leaders that keep pausing and re-emerging, and said he was taking tighter setups and keeping his risk at almost half of what he would normally risk. He added that he had not taken a 20% position since the recent gold run.

The amended rule: a higher sector cap, spread across more names

Gary described a rule he had changed in the session. He had limited himself to about 40% of his portfolio in one sector. After watching several strong sector runs — a rise in relative strength across a sector, launch pad names emerging, then whole groups tightening together — he asked whether the cap was holding back his best setups, and raised it to 50%. He said the extra room would be spread across more names, for example 20%, 20% and 10%, or 20%, 10%, 10% and 10%, so that a big win is captured when several setups line up. It follows the 14 August disclosure on how Richard Redpath builds positions in breakout stocks, where he described cutting a gold weighting from about 40% to 20% into strength.

Buying small on the break day and adding on the pullback

Gary also described how he now builds the position. On a break, he said he buys only a small parcel — his example was around 5% — and hopes for a retreat to the moving averages within a couple of days, where he fills the rest. He noted that this cuts against a good trading rule, that a trader should add to winners rather than losers, and that he battled with it for a while before trying it:

"I started doing it and started working. So you do what works." — Gary Glover, 25 September 2026 session

His reasoning was that a market that is not super strong tends to hand back the break, so waiting for the pullback gave a better entry. On the exit side, he said that in this market, if a stock reaches about five times his risk he takes another parcel off, because follow-through has been poor.

Why a very low-priced stock stays off the list

In the members session for the same day, Gary noted a size limit that applies before any of these rules: on a share priced around 1.2 cents each tick is roughly a 10% move, so two ticks is about 20%, which he said rules such stocks out for him. His framing was that a momentum trader builds capital and then protects it, looking for low-risk entries rather than maximum exposure. The members session recording covers the full watchlist review. The related filter on stocks with heavy supply in front of them is covered in why a bottom-half chart struggles to rally.

Source and disclosure for this section: the observations above were made by Gary Glover during recorded Finer Market Points sessions on 25 September 2026 and include a disclosure of his own portfolio rules and trading activity. They reflect his general approach and were not made in relation to any specific stock named elsewhere in this article. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes. These are observations from a recorded session, not recommendations.

Conclusion

A hard penny market is not a signal to stop — it is a signal to adjust. Setups still trigger, but moves fail to follow through, so Gary Glover's response is two changes: trade lighter, committing less capital and adding only as a move confirms, and trade tighter, compressing profit targets and reward-to-risk rather than holding out for a runaway that is not coming. Selection narrows to the thin band of genuine leaders holding their moving averages on light volume. The thing to watch for a change of regime is the FMP Momentum Profile lifting off its flatline and back-to-back distribution days easing — an observation, not a trading signal. The same FMP Momentum Profile data Gary reviews each week, including the Top 30 momentum list and Launch Pad, is available to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members as early access to the educational research behind analysis like this.

Finer Market Points publishes the FMP Momentum Profile daily — the Top 30 ASX momentum list and Launch Pad that frame which names are still worth trading in a hard penny market. FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members access this proprietary research and receive the weekly Top 30 data 19 hours before the Gary Glover weekly session goes live, as early access to the educational data discussed in this article. For information on FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership, visit the membership page.

Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a hard penny market?

A hard penny market is a low-yield momentum regime — a phrase Gary Glover borrows from Mark Minervini — where trade setups still trigger but the follow-through that pays for the risk does not arrive: moves stall and pullbacks snap back into the range. In these conditions Gary keeps trading but adjusts, trading lighter (smaller size) and tighter (smaller targets and reward-to-risk).

How should position sizing change in a difficult momentum market?

Gary Glover's anecdotal approach is to trade lighter than normal: take a smaller starter position so a failed follow-through costs less, then add only if the move proves itself — ideally on a pullback toward a moving average rather than chasing an extended entry. Position sizing, not conviction, does the risk control when moves are not following through.

What reward-to-risk ratio do momentum traders use when trends aren't following through?

Gary noted that where a strong market might justify a 3-to-1, 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 reward-to-risk, a hard penny market often forces professionals down toward about 2.5-to-1, and sometimes 2-to-1 — keeping risk tight and banking a smaller gain rather than holding out for a runaway move that is not coming.

Why do momentum traders keep getting stopped out at breakeven?

When moves do not follow through, a trailing stop moved up to breakeven is repeatedly caught by the sharp pullbacks typical of a hard penny market. Gary described this as his most frequent current outcome — get set, get an initial move, reach breakeven, then get knocked out. It reflects the regime, not a flawed setup.

Should a trader stop trading altogether in a weak momentum market?

Not necessarily. Gary's approach is to keep trading selected leaders but lighter and tighter, prioritising capital preservation. He notes the bulk of a year's gains tend to come in a minority of weeks, so the goal in the rest is to lose little. Traders unsure of their own approach may wish to speak with a qualified financial adviser.

What share of ASX stocks actually drives the yearly gains?

In Gary Glover's session compilation of ASX 300 performance for FY2026, roughly 45% of stocks were profitable and the strongest returns were concentrated in the top decile — the reason selection tightens as the market weakens. This is Gary's session observation of a specific index and period, not a formal study; the full breakdown is covered in a separate article.

When should a momentum trader stop making hard penny market adjustments?

When the regime changes. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation is that trading lighter and tighter — and waiting for a throwback to a moving average rather than buying the breakout — is an adaptation to a hard penny market, not a permanent method. As momentum scores improve and leadership broadens, the adaptation comes off and the approach reverts to running with the leading companies in the strongest themes on the best relative strength, at normal size. The adjustments are what a trader does while waiting for that market, not a downgrade of the underlying method.

Does Mark Minervini keep trading in a hard penny market?

By Minervini's own account he keeps trading his setups but adjusts, tightening stops — averaging around 4–6% in a poor market, with 8% the "line in the sand" — and accepting smaller gains. The principle Gary applies on the ASX is the same: adapt size and targets to the regime rather than abandoning the method.

Sources

#	Source	Type
1	Gary Glover session, 3 July 2026, and the FMP Momentum Profile	Practitioner session / FMP proprietary data
2	Mark Minervini, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (2013)	Published research
3	William O'Neil, How to Make Money in Stocks (2009)	Published research
4	Gary Glover session, 31 July 2026 (https://youtu.be/GA6SNOAPuwg), and the FMP Momentum Profile breadth data reviewed in that session	Practitioner session / FMP proprietary data

All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.

Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources:

• When ASX Momentum Breakouts Stop Working: the 50-Day Extension Rule — Christopher Hall

• What Distribution Days Reveal About a Forming Market Top — Christopher Hall

• ASX Momentum Trading Conditions: the Weeks That Drive Annual Gains — Christopher Hall

• Moving Averages for ASX Momentum Stocks — Christopher Hall

• Dogs of the ASX: Best and Worst ASX 200 Performers of FY2026 — Christopher Hall

This article is based on analysis and commentary provided by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded market analysis session on 3 July 2026. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes. Gary Glover has not independently reviewed or endorsed this publication.

Educational Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Consider your financial situation and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Finer Market Points Pty Ltd, CAR 1304002, AFSL 526688, ABN 87 645 284 680. This general information is educational only and not financial advice, recommendation, forecast or solicitation. Consider your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting. Seek appropriate professional advice. We accept no liability for any loss or damages arising from use. Authors and presenters may hold positions in discussed companies and investment products.