Relative Strength Ratings, ATR Extensions and Progressive Exposure: The Wealth Hustle's Complete ASX Momentum Trading Framework
- Christopher Hall
- 16 hours ago
- 14 min read
Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated June 2026 Insights sourced from Richard Redpath, full-time ASX momentum trader, interviewed by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)
Progressive exposure is an ASX momentum trading method that concentrates position building into the first confirmed day of a move. Rather than spreading entries across a base of five to eight weeks, a full-time trader enters a high-conviction stock repeatedly across a single session — the largest allocation first, with progressively smaller increments as intraday price action confirms the move is real.
Richard Redpath form the Wealth Hustle, a full-time ASX momentum trader who left a 15-year career in electrical engineering to trade professionally, shared his complete methodology in a recorded interview conducted by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), with Finer Market Points on 10 June 2026. Richard's system targets 100% annual returns on a current win rate of 28% — a figure that is not a deficiency but a structural feature of a high-selectivity, concentrated approach. This article covers his complete framework: Relative Strength screening and ATR filtering, progressive exposure position construction with intraday entry logic, exit signals including the 10-ATR extension from the 50-day moving average, and a portfolio philosophy built around a maximum of five positions.
What Is Progressive Exposure and How Does It Differ from Standard Position Building?
Progressive exposure — a concept Richard Redpath credits to Tom Haugaard, the Danish futures trader and author of Best Loser Wins (2022, Harriman House) — concentrates the position-building sequence into the breakout day itself rather than spreading it across weeks of base formation.
The contrast with the standard approach is direct. Minervini's position sizing for VCP trades, as documented in the Volatility Contraction Pattern methodology, builds a position across a confirmed base of five to eight weeks — adding at a second pivot or on a follow-through day. Progressive exposure compresses the same capital deployment into intraday increments on the breakout day itself.
Richard's reasoning: a stock moving in real time on confirmed volume is a higher-conviction signal than the same stock's retrospective base. The live move is proof the institutional interest is active today. A retrospective base is proof it was active at some point in the previous eight weeks. The difference matters when concentration is the goal.
The mechanics work in one direction. The first entry is the largest. Each subsequent add is smaller as price moves higher — later entries carry more risk because the cushion above the initial entry is narrower, so size is reduced to reflect that. Over the course of a confirmed trading session, Richard may enter a single stock 15 to 20 times, building toward a position of 20 to 30% of the portfolio on the highest-conviction setups.
Think of it as auditing a position in real time rather than pre-approving it based on a historical pattern. Each progressive add is a further confirmation — the stock continues to earn capital as long as it continues to confirm. When it stops confirming, capital stops.
The structural implication is concentration. Richard runs a maximum of five ASX stocks simultaneously. On a 28% win rate, the mathematics only work when the winners are pressed hard — progressive exposure is the mechanism that makes pressing viable. The tradeoff is a structurally low win rate. When a position fails to confirm by the close — when the stock does not close in the top 12% (1 / 8 th) of the day's candle range — it is exited or reduced to a pilot stake. Same-day exit discipline is non-negotiable.
How Does Richard Redpath Screen for the Right ASX Stocks to Trade?
Before progressive exposure can work, the underlying stock must pass a layered filter. Richard's screening system applies four sequential gates: Relative Strength above 87–90, price above the 50-day and 200-day moving average, a minimum Average True Range of 4.5% per day, and thematic alignment with a sector being accumulated in US markets.
The Relative Strength filter comes first. The Relative Strength rating system, developed by William O'Neil and documented in How to Make Money in Stocks, measures how a stock's price performance compares to a broad market benchmark. Richard uses the IBD-based relative strength rating system through a custom TradingView script, measuring ASX stocks against the S&P 500. Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), confirmed in the session that Richard's RS approach is drawn from the IBD model: "that's obviously the IBD model." Richard screens for stocks with an RS above 90 — the top decile of his monitored universe relative to the S&P 500.
When the ASX tape is weak — declining market breadth, fewer stocks holding above the 50-day moving average — Richard lowers the threshold to approximately 87. This adjustment reflects his personal calibration for current conditions as at 10 June 2026, not a standing rule for all market environments.
The moving average filter establishes trend direction. The 50-day moving average is the hard cut-off: no entries on any stock trading below it. The 200-day moving average confirms the broader stage 2 uptrend. A stock in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend that has pulled back to the 50-day and is reclaiming it presents a cleaner risk/reward profile than a stock extended above both.
The ATR minimum ensures the stock can generate meaningful returns per add. A minimum Average True Range of 4.5% means a single confirmed session can produce a return worth the concentrated position. Stocks below this threshold do not have enough daily movement to make progressive exposure viable.
The thematic overlay is qualitative. Richard monitors NASDAQ-listed companies in active sectors as a leading indicator for ASX equivalents. When institutional capital is moving into a specific technology sub-sector in the US, he identifies ASX-listed companies with comparable business profiles and sufficient institutional liquidity — market cap above $1 billion (preferred) as a practical threshold for meaningful institutional participation. His reasoning: Australian fund managers mandated to trade ASX stocks will seek whatever ASX name provides access to a live US thematic. Why sector strength matters for VCP trading and stock selection is explored in detail in the FMP article library — for Richard, thematic alignment is the qualitative confirmation that institutional demand has offshore validation. Relative volume scans at 3× and 5× average daily volume run nightly to surface smaller stocks drawing persistent attention outside the headline screens.
WBT (Weebit Nano, ASX:WBT) was the stock Richard focused on in the 10 June 2026 session. It met all criteria: RS above 90, above the 50-day moving average, market cap exceeding $1 billion, and thematic confirmation through NASDAQ-listed semiconductor and data connectivity names — MXL (MaxLinear), ALAB (Astera Labs), and CRDO (Credo Technology Group) — all attracting institutional momentum in the same period.
These are Richard Redpath's personal screening thresholds as at the 10 June 2026 session — practitioner observations from a full-time trader, not universal trading rules.
How Does Richard Build a Position Using Progressive Exposure?
Once a stock passes Richard's filters and a trigger event occurs — a company announcement or a breakout above a prior swing high while the stock is trading above the 50-day moving average — position building begins. The first entry is the largest. Each subsequent add is smaller as price moves higher, and the number of adds tracks the intraday price confirmation.
Richard frames each trading day around three phases: manipulation, accumulation, and distribution. In the manipulation phase, price is pushed lower early in the session — running retail stop-losses. In the accumulation phase, institutional buyers absorb supply at the engineered low. In the distribution phase, price closes higher as the institutional position is established. He monitors five-minute candle behaviour to identify liquidity pockets — areas on the chart where relative equal highs signal that algorithms will seek price — and begins progressive adds as the accumulation phase becomes visible in the price structure.
This framing is Richard Redpath's context for intraday entry timing, not a standalone trading system. Not every session produces a clear three-phase structure. The framing provides a mental model for reading intraday price behaviour — it supplements the quantitative filters applied before entry rather than replacing them.
The WBT trade illustrates the approach in practice. On the day WBT released a company announcement, the stock broke above a prior swing high while holding above the 50-day moving average — how the 50-day MA captures major ASX moves is covered in the FMP 50-day moving average trading system. Richard entered progressively across approximately 20 five-minute candles through the session, starting with his largest entry on the initial breakout and reducing the size of each subsequent add as the stock moved higher. By the close, the accumulated position required a candle quality check.
The close quality rule is fixed: the stock must close in the top 12% (1/8th) of the day's candle range to justify holding overnight. A close in the lower half of the candle triggers a full exit or reduction to a pilot stake — regardless of the size of the accumulated position. As Mark Minervini documented in Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard, adding to a position before a cushion is established above entry compounds exposure at the worst time; the correct sequence is to build only as the stock confirms and reduce when it does not. Gary Glover noted in the session that Kristjan Kullamaggie applies a comparable overnight rule — hold only when the position provides a closing cushion above the entry price. The 8% candle close rule is Richard's quantitative implementation of this principle.
The full interview recording — where Richard Redpath walks Gary Glover through his complete methodology with live WBT chart examples — is accessible on FMP YouTube channel
How Does Richard Redpath Identify Exit Signals and Cut Losing Positions?
Richard uses two primary exit signals: the 10-ATR extension from the 50-day moving average and end-of-day candle quality. A third discipline applies across all positions — any setup that fails to show power from its entry pivot is cut immediately, regardless of how compelling the thematic case appears.
The 10-ATR extension is a custom chart indicator that prints yellow dots when a stock's price has moved more than 10 times its Average True Range above the 50-day moving average. This marks a zone of overextension — it does not automatically trigger a full exit. Richard's response is conditional: if end-of-day candle quality holds (close in the top 8% of the day's range), a high tight flag may be forming and the position continues. When to take profits on extended ASX positions is covered in the FMP profit-taking framework — including the systematic approach to trimming versus holding through an extension zone.
Christopher Hall's study of approximately 380 high tight flag patterns across ASX small and mid-cap stocks (FMP proprietary research, 2012–2025) shows that stocks forming tight, sideways consolidations after an initial 50–100% vertical move frequently produce a second flagpole of comparable size. This continuation potential is what Richard watches for when holding through the 10-ATR extension rather than exiting in full.
When candle quality deteriorates — closes repeatedly mid-range or below — the position is cut immediately. Richard's framing: a stock that closes repeatedly in the lower half of its daily range is communicating that buyers are not present in sufficient size to hold the gains. The thematic case may be intact; the price action may not support the position.
The WBT exit followed this logic. Yellow dots appeared at the 10-ATR extension; Richard trimmed 50% of the position at what turned out to be the session's top tick and held the remainder while monitoring for a high tight flag setup. When WBT subsequently traded out of character — closes failing to hold power — the remaining position was fully exited.
NXT (NextDC, ASX:NXT) provides the contrasting example — a position cut before the subsequent move. Sector conditions were strong, but NXT repeatedly closed mid-range after attempting breakouts from pivot areas. Richard cut each attempted entry, noting the candle structure showed no institutional buying interest. NXT later moved significantly without his participation. Richard's assessment: the decision was correct given the evidence available at each entry point. What happens after the exit does not retroactively change the quality of the exit decision.
What Portfolio Philosophy Does Richard Use to Target 100% Annual Returns?
Richard's portfolio is deliberately concentrated — a maximum of five stocks, leverage applied to the highest-conviction positions, and a win rate of 28% as at the 10 June 2026 session. The mathematics require the concentration.
A 28% win rate with small position sizes — 5 to 10% of the portfolio — cannot produce 100% annual returns even if every winner doubles. The numbers only work when the wins are large and the losses are small. Progressive exposure builds the win size by pressing hard on confirmed moves. Same-day exit discipline keeps the losses small by cutting immediately when a stock fails to confirm.
In strong market conditions, Richard's win rate rises to approximately 34% — still a majority of losing trades. Gary Glover noted in the session that this range is consistent with what top swing traders globally report, and that his own approach at a slightly different RS filter threshold produces a comparable ratio. The low win rate is a system feature: it reflects the discipline of taking only setups that meet all criteria and cutting the ones that do not confirm, rather than adjusting the rules to rationalise a borderline hold.
Richard shared his year-to-date results to 10 June 2026 as context for how the progressive exposure system works in practice — two major winning positions in WBT (Weebit Nano, ASX:WBT) and MP1 (Megaport, ASX:MP1) alongside a 4DX short position. This is Richard Redpath's personal performance at a single point in time. The ASX momentum trading returns data published by Finer Market Points provides broader context on concentrated momentum trading results across the Australian small and mid-cap universe.
Progressive exposure is not an aggressive method — it is a disciplined one. The system demands stock selection before position building, candle quality evidence before overnight holding, and immediate exits when a position stops confirming. A 28% win rate only works when the wins are pressed hard and the losses are cut immediately.
The filtering process is the foundation. Relative Strength above 87–90, a minimum ATR of 4.5%, price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and thematic alignment with a live US sector — these criteria narrow the field to stocks with the best conditions for a single-session move large enough to justify progressive exposure. Most stocks never pass all four filters simultaneously. That selectivity is the mechanism.
The current ASX tape — declining relative strength across the small-cap universe, reduced liquidity in the names Richard monitors — means fewer positions running with tighter filters. When the tape strengthens and a confirmed thematic emerges with US validation, the progressive exposure system is designed to press hard and fast. The full interview recording from the 10 June 2026 session is accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members.
This article draws on Richard Redpath's recorded interview with Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168). The full session recording — where Richard Redpath walks through his progressive exposure methodology, screening filters, and live ASX chart examples in real time — is accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members. Members receive early access to the educational content that forms the basis of articles like this one. For information on FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership, visit the Finer Market Points YouTube membership page.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is progressive exposure in ASX trading?
Progressive exposure is a position-building methodology where a trader enters a high-conviction ASX stock repeatedly across a single trading day, allocating the largest capital at the first entry and progressively smaller increments as price moves higher. The concept — attributed by Richard Redpath to Danish futures trader Tom Haugaard, author of Best Loser Wins (2022) — prioritises the live breakout day as the highest-conviction signal. Positions are concentrated and closed within the session if end-of-day candle quality deteriorates below the required threshold.
What Relative Strength rating does Richard Redpath look for before entering an ASX stock?
Richard Redpath screens for ASX stocks with a Relative Strength rating above 90, measured against the S&P 500 using a custom TradingView script adapted from the IBD/William O'Neil model. When the ASX tape is weak — declining breadth, fewer stocks holding above the 50-day moving average — he lowers the threshold to approximately 87, accepting a slightly reduced bar when high-quality setups become scarce. The RS filter runs alongside 50-day and 200-day moving average checks before any entry is considered.
How does Richard Redpath use ATR to filter and manage ASX positions?
Average True Range serves two functions in Richard's system. Before entry, he requires a minimum ATR of 4.5% per day — stocks below this threshold cannot generate meaningful single-day returns that justify concentrated exposure. During the trade, he monitors ATR-based extensions from the 50-day moving average: when price extends 10 times the ATR above the 50-day, a custom indicator prints a yellow dot on his chart, signalling a caution zone and prompting a position size review.
What is the 10-ATR extension signal and when does it indicate an exit?
The 10-ATR extension marks when a stock's price has moved more than 10 times its Average True Range above the 50-day moving average — a zone of overextension, not an automatic exit trigger. Richard's response is conditional: if end-of-day candle quality holds strong (close in the top 8% of the day's range), a high tight flag may be forming and the position continues. If candle quality deteriorates — closes repeatedly mid-range or below — he trims or exits. The candle structure decides; the extension signal prompts the review.
How many stocks does Richard Redpath hold at one time?
Richard runs a maximum of five ASX stocks simultaneously. This concentration is deliberate: the progressive exposure system requires each position to be large enough to generate meaningful portfolio returns when it works. A 100% annual target cannot be achieved through many positions at small sizes — it requires a small number of trades at 20–30% of the portfolio on the highest-conviction setups, pressed hard when conditions confirm. Most trades are exploratory and cut quickly; the winners are held and built progressively.
What win-loss ratio do full-time ASX momentum traders typically work with?
Richard Redpath's personal win rate was approximately 28% at the time of the 10 June 2026 session — a losing outcome on roughly 7 in every 10 trades. In stronger market conditions, this rises to approximately 34%. Gary Glover noted in the session that this range is consistent with what top swing traders globally report. The mathematics are intentional: a low win rate is sustainable when winning trades run to multiples of initial risk and losing trades are cut immediately. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
How does Richard Redpath find ASX stocks that reflect US thematic trends?
Richard monitors NASDAQ-listed companies in active thematics as a leading indicator for ASX equivalents. When a technology sub-sector is drawing institutional capital in the US, he identifies ASX-listed companies with comparable business profiles and sufficient liquidity — market cap above $1 billion as a practical threshold for institutional participation. When the ASX stock also meets the RS, ATR, and moving average filters, the thematic alignment confirms that Australian fund managers seeking the same exposure domestically may be buyers. This is Richard Redpath's qualitative overlay, not a rules-based system element.
Sources
# | Source | Type |
1 | Richard Redpath — 10 June 2026 FMP interview session, conducted by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168). All Richard Redpath observations in this article are practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not regulated financial advice. | Practitioner interview / recorded session |
2 | William O'Neil — How to Make Money in Stocks (4th ed., 2009, McGraw-Hill) | Published research |
3 | Mark Minervini — Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (2013, McGraw-Hill) | Published research |
4 | Tom Haugaard — Best Loser Wins (2022, Harriman House) | Published book |
5 | Christopher Hall — FMP ASX High Tight Flag Study (~380 patterns, small and mid-cap ASX universe, 2021–2025) | FMP proprietary research |
6 | Kristjan Kullamaggie — overnight cushion rule referenced by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), 10 June 2026. No specific publication confirmed. | Session reference (no confirmed publication) |
All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.
Related FMP Educational Resources:
Why the Stocks That Fall the Least Are the Ones That Run the Hardest: Relative Strength as a Leading Indicator — Christopher Hall
VCP Trade Execution on ASX: Minervini's Entry, Position Sizing & Exit Strategies — Christopher Hall
ASX Momentum Profit-Taking: The 50-Day Extension Rule — Christopher Hall
The 50-Day Moving Average Trading System — Christopher Hall
Mark Minervini VCP Patterns: Why Sector and Thematic Filters Matter More Than Stock Selection — Christopher Hall
Disclaimer: This article draws on practitioner observations made by Richard Redpath, full-time ASX momentum trader, in a recorded interview conducted by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), on 10 June 2026. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes. Richard Redpath has not independently reviewed or endorsed this publication.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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