Why Being Right 75% of the Time Still Costs You Money — The Chop Tax and What Gary Glover's Personal Audit Reveals About ASX Momentum Trading
- Christopher Hall
- May 8
- 19 min read
Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated May 2026 Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)
In difficult ASX momentum trading conditions, being right on the direction of three quarters of trades is not enough to make meaningful progress. A constrained, volatile market extracts a hidden cost from disciplined traders — not through large losses, but through a consistent pattern of setups that advance toward the profit target then reverse to breakeven. Gary Glover describes this as the most frequently occurring trade in a challenging cycle. The answer is not working harder to find better setups. It is understanding where the real gains come from — and building the patience to wait for those conditions to return.
What Is the Chop Tax and Why Does It Affect Even Disciplined ASX Momentum Traders?
The chop tax — the hidden cost extracted by a volatile, range-bound market through a pattern of correct directional calls that reverse before reaching their profit target — is not a sign of poor trading. It is one of the most demoralising experiences in ASX momentum trading, precisely because it strikes traders who are doing most things correctly. The entries are valid. The risk management is sound. The process is intact. And yet the returns barely move.
A chop tax environment is like surfing in onshore wind. The waves are real. The paddle-ins are timed correctly. But the condition prevents a clean ride. The skill is not wrong — the environment is. Recognising this distinction is the difference between a trader who protects capital while conditions are unfavourable and one who dismantles a working methodology trying to solve a problem that is not theirs to solve.
The FMP Momentum Profile — the FMP market conditions measure published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members, which quantifies how favourable current ASX conditions are for momentum trading — showed at the time of this session that the market was running approximately 10% harder than normal. Only 54% of tradable ASX companies were above the 50-day moving average. These are not catastrophic readings. They are the specific conditions that produce the chop tax: enough stocks working to generate activity, but insufficient broad momentum to allow positions to follow through.
In Gary Glover's anecdotal experience across his trading career, the pattern in this type of environment is unmistakable:
"I feel like two thirds to maybe even three quarters of the trades I'm taking are actually moving in my direction initially but they're not moving big enough and then when they're pulling back they're pulling back quite sharp."
The outcome of that pattern is equally consistent:
"Getting that initial move and then getting cut back out at break even has been probably the most popular trade for the last three weeks. Nothing lost but not a lot of gains in that."
The chop tax does not announce itself in the account balance through dramatic drawdowns. It accumulates quietly — through a series of technically correct positions that collectively produce nothing. That invisibility makes it one of the most dangerous conditions for an ASX momentum trader to navigate without a framework for identifying and responding to it.
For a detailed breakdown of how to measure current market conditions before sizing up any position, see How to Find the Best ASX Stocks When the Market Turns: The Momentum Profile Filter System. The IBD Power Trend — which defines the specific conditions under which momentum traders should be deploying maximum capital — is explained in What Is the IBD Power Trend? The Three Conditions That Tell ASX Momentum Traders to Be Fully Invested. Christopher Hall's full background and methodology are outlined at About Christopher Hall. For historical context on what a favourable momentum environment looks like by the numbers, see ASX Momentum Trading Returns: 72% of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average.
Why Do Correct ASX Trades Keep Reversing Before Reaching the Profit Target?
The mechanical reason behind the chop tax pattern is straightforward. In a constrained environment, the institutional buying momentum behind any individual move is insufficient to sustain it cleanly through the first profit target. The advance is real — enough buyers arrive to push the position into profit. But the conviction behind it is shallow. Profit-taking and broader market uncertainty combine to stall the move at precisely the point where the setup should be delivering its return.
This produces a specific emotional profile that is distinct from a normal losing streak. A string of losses — while painful — is identifiable as a negative outcome. The chop tax produces something more disorienting: a series of positive-feeling trades that generate no positive result. The entry signal fires. The position advances. The first target approaches. Then the move fades. The stop is not triggered. Breakeven is hit and the position is closed at flat. The trader did nothing wrong — and has nothing to show for it.
In a $100,000 account applying a standard 1% risk rule, each setup risks $1,000. In a robust, trending environment, a quality setup might deliver $2,500 to $3,000 to the first profit target — a 2.5 to 3.0 times risk-reward outcome. In a chop tax environment, the same setup advances $1,400 and then reverses to breakeven. The entry was correctly executed. The environment prevented the return from being realised.
In Gary Glover's anecdotal experience, this pattern creates its own compounding risk:
"I've been caught a few times where I've just pulled up shy of my three times one risk-reward and then basically lost momentum and come all the way back to breakeven."
The temptation in this situation is to hold positions longer, hoping the move will resume. Gary describes what happens when that instinct is suppressed in favour of rules — and what happens when it is not:
"I was in and the market being so choppy I just didn't want to reduce my risk. And then of course the next day it pops."
Mark Minervini's dynamic position sizing framework addresses this directly. The methodology specifies 2.0% capital risk per trade in bullish conditions, 1.0% in neutral conditions, and zero exposure in deteriorating markets. The environment itself determines the correct allocation before any individual setup is evaluated. A chop tax reading is, by definition, a neutral-to-deteriorating signal — which means the framework instructs a 50% reduction in capital deployed before a single chart is opened.
For the complete entry mechanics and position sizing process, see VCP Trade Execution on ASX: Minervini's Entry, Position Sizing & Exit Strategies. The conditions required for a valid B-wave entry — which are more stringent than a standard breakout — are covered in B-Wave Trade Checklist: 3 Conditions ASX Momentum Traders Need. How the 50-day moving average functions as the structural dividing line between valid and invalid trading conditions is explained in The 50-Day Moving Average Trading System: How One Line Captures 70–80% of Major ASX Moves.
What Does a Personal Trading Audit Reveal About Where ASX Momentum Gains Actually Come From?
The answer to the chop tax is not found in better stock selection or tighter entry criteria. It is found in a different question entirely: which trades, historically, actually moved the needle?
Gary Glover's personal audit of his trading results produced a finding that is straightforward in hindsight but rarely acted upon consistently in practice. When he reviewed the positions that generated his largest gains — the ones that genuinely shifted the account — almost every one of them shared a common characteristic. They were the dominant names in the leading sectors at the time of the entry.
In Gary Glover's anecdotal experience reviewing his own trading history:
"Just had to be in sectors that are strong. The stats for me personally when reviewing them just jumped off the page — just had to be in sectors that are strong."
This observation has a specific practical implication that most ASX momentum traders underweight. Sector selection is not a secondary filter applied after identifying a compelling stock setup. It is the primary decision. The stock selection process — the chart analysis, the volume assessment, the pattern recognition — is the secondary layer. Getting that sequence inverted is the single most common structural error in a momentum trader's approach.
Gary Glover's anecdotal experience is consistent with the academic evidence. Moskowitz and Grinblatt's research, published in the Journal of Finance in 1999, established that momentum stocks in leading sectors achieve 18.7% annual outperformance. The same methodology applied to stocks in weak sectors produces only 4.3% annual outperformance. The sector context explains the overwhelming majority of the gap between a momentum strategy that compounds and one that treads water.
FMP educational analysis of ASX momentum trades — presented here for educational purposes and not as a formally published study — reflects a similar pattern. Strong stocks in dominant sectors produce a 68.2% win rate with average gains of 14.7%. The same quality of stock selection applied to a weak sector delivers a 51.3% win rate with average gains of 9.2%. At 51.3%, the strategy is barely distinguishable from random after brokerage and spread costs are applied.
Gary Glover's framing of this in session is direct:
"If you're seeing good setups and the sector is showing strength, that's a big plus for me. That's just so important."
For a deep examination of why sector and thematic filters outweigh individual stock selection in momentum trading, see Mark Minervini VCP Patterns: Why Sector and Thematic Filters Matter More Than Stock Selection. For a case study in how sector context determined the outcome of two individual stock positions, see How to Identify ASX Momentum Leaders: Why Beach Energy Failed While Paladin Rallied 40%. Broader lessons from Gary Glover's live ASX watchlist reviews are collected in 7 Momentum Trading Lessons from Gary Glover's ASX Watchlist Review. For a complementary examination of how relative strength during a decline identifies the next rally leaders, see Why the Stocks That Fall the Least Are the Ones That Run the Hardest.
Why Does Sector Strength Amplify Individual ASX Stock Performance — and Its Absence Neutralise It?
Understanding why the audit finding holds up requires understanding the mechanism. Institutional capital — the fund managers, superannuation allocators, and professional traders who generate the volume that drives sustained price appreciation — does not allocate stock by stock. It rotates sector by sector. When a theme receives institutional attention, the coordinated buying pressure lifts the entire segment. Even average stocks within a buoyant sector benefit from the tailwind of coordinated inflows. Conversely, the best individual setup in a sector experiencing institutional outflows faces a structural headwind that overwhelms its technical merits.
The Launch Pad — the FMP screening tool that identifies stocks entering momentum before they become widely recognised market leaders — provides a practical early signal of where institutional rotation is occurring. When multiple names from the same thematic segment appear on the Launch Pad simultaneously, it reflects coordinated positioning that is rarely coincidental.
At the time of this session, the FMP Momentum Profile — published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — showed that 80% of current ASX momentum leaders had emerged from recent Launch Pad entries. That concentration of new leadership in Launch Pad names confirmed that sector-level institutional positioning was the dominant driver of individual stock performance in the prevailing environment.
Gary Glover's anecdotal experience across his career reflects this dynamic consistently:
"It's 50% more likely to go up if you're in a sector... so it's really important if you're seeing the sector show strength."
He describes a specific real example from the session period — the data centre segment — to illustrate how sector strength functions as a multiplier on individual stock performance:
"The data centre space was hot. The sector was strong. That's just so important — if you're seeing good setups and the sector is showing strength that's a big plus."
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk. The patterns and frameworks described here are educational in nature and do not constitute financial advice.
The academic foundation for this is established. Jegadeesh and Titman (Journal of Finance, 1993) confirmed that prior winners continued outperforming by 12.01% annually. Moskowitz and Grinblatt subsequently demonstrated that this persistence effect concentrates within sectors rather than spreading uniformly across the broader market. The sector is the amplifier. Without it, momentum strategies revert toward average returns. With it, they access the full compounding potential of the methodology.
For a systematic framework for identifying which ASX sectors are in institutional favour before that rotation becomes obvious, see How to Identify Leading Sectors for VCP Pattern Trading (ASX Focus). Why the standard GICS sector classification system obscures thematic clustering that matters for momentum traders is explained in Why GICS Classification Fails ASX Momentum Traders: The Thematic Solution. The Launch Pad concept and how to interpret sector clustering within it is covered in Launch Pad Themes: Finding Emerging Opportunities Before the Market. Gary Glover's 3-signal framework for identifying sector rotation before it appears in the index is outlined in From Energy to Growth: The 3-Signal Framework Gary Glover Uses to Identify the Next ASX Market Leaders.
How Does Maintaining Process Discipline Protect Capital When ASX Momentum Trading Conditions Are Unrewarding?
Process discipline in a chop tax environment is not a consolation prize. It is the specific behaviour that preserves capital, maintains confidence, and keeps a trader positioned to act at full conviction when conditions recover. The value of staying within the rules during a period of unrewarding conditions is not visible in the account balance at the time — it becomes visible in the next favourable cycle, when the trader who maintained their methodology is available to participate fully while those who abandoned their framework during the difficult period are still rebuilding.
Gary Glover's anecdotal assessment of his own trading conduct during this period is direct:
"I'm personally pleased that I've kept within my playbook, stayed my rules and made a little bit of progress. But yeah it's been tough going."
And his perspective on the forward implication of that discipline:
"Good process that I've got in place here now is going to reward me when the market gets better."
The most seductive alternative to process discipline in a chop tax environment is the value play. When the primary methodology is not delivering, beaten-down sectors begin to look attractive. The stocks are cheaper than they have been in years. The valuation argument seems compelling. The temptation is to deploy capital into something that is moving — even if it is moving in the wrong direction for a momentum framework.
Gary Glover's anecdotal experience addresses this directly:
"Even when stocks are getting ridiculously cheap, just because they're cheap doesn't mean they can't get cheaper. Capital sits there for three or four months waiting — you're better off actually waiting for them to set up."
The timing observation is equally important. In Gary Glover's anecdotal experience across his career:
"When I see them come on the radar and think, well, these things are really cheap — it's usually about another two to three, four weeks later that they find the low."
The opportunity cost of premature value buying is not just the potential loss on the position. It is the capital tied up in a static trade for months that is unavailable when a genuine momentum entry fires in a leading sector. A catalyst — an episodic pivot, which is a news-driven gap that transforms a consolidating stock into a momentum leader in a single session — is the signal required before a beaten-down sector becomes a valid momentum opportunity. Without that catalyst, the trade belongs to a different methodology entirely.
Mark Minervini's framework makes this structural. Zero exposure in deteriorating conditions is not a judgement call — it is the systematic instruction built into the position sizing model. In a $100,000 account, chop tax conditions instruct $1,000 maximum risk per trade, not $2,000. Removing the discretion from the decision removes the temptation to override the framework in search of activity.
For a deeper exploration of why process consistency outperforms opinion-based trading across market cycles, see Why Gary Glover's Trading Philosophy Emphasises Process Over Market Opinions. How to build and evaluate the trading system that holds up in adverse conditions is covered in How to Improve Your Trading System: Expected Value, Position Sizing and the Trade Journal. The episodic pivot concept — the catalyst event that signals when a beaten-down sector is ready to re-enter the momentum framework — is explained in full at What is Episodic Pivot Trading? The Complete Guide to Catalyst-Based Momentum Trading. Why the best momentum traders study the same stocks repeatedly rather than searching constantly for new names is explored in Why the Best Momentum Traders Study the Same Stocks Repeatedly.
How Do ASX Momentum Traders Measure Whether Market Conditions Justify Full Position Sizing?
The following five steps represent the systematic sequence for assessing whether current ASX conditions support full position sizing or require a scaled-back approach. Each step narrows the assessment before the next is applied.
Step 1 — Read the FMP Momentum Profile signal strength
The FMP Momentum Profile — the FMP market conditions measure published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — provides a standardised reading of ASX conditions on a favourable percentage scale. A reading below 50% favourable indicates a chop tax environment is active. In those conditions, reduce capital at risk per trade by 50% from the standard allocation before evaluating any individual setup.
Step 2 — Count the percentage of ASX tradable stocks above the 50-day moving average
A reading of 54% or below indicates average or deteriorating conditions. Above 65% indicates a strengthening environment where standard position sizing is appropriate. Below 40% signals broad market deterioration — consider moving to minimal exposure across the entire portfolio rather than seeking individual exceptions.
Step 3 — Confirm whether momentum leaders are emerging from the Launch Pad
A high conversion rate — where 70% or more of new momentum leaders have emerged from recent Launch Pad entries — signals genuine new leadership forming from institutional sector rotation. This is the green light for selective full-sized positions within confirmed sector clusters. A low conversion rate indicates the market is recycling extended names rather than generating fresh opportunities.
Step 4 — Apply sector confirmation before sizing any individual position
Sector strength is confirmed before stock selection — not after. FMP educational analysis indicates strong stocks in robust sectors produce a 68.2% win rate. The same quality of stock in a weak sector produces 51.3%. Never allocate full size to an individual position without first confirming the sector is in the leading tier of current market conditions.
Step 5 — Scale position sizing to the environment systematically
Minervini's dynamic position sizing framework: 2.0% capital risk in bullish conditions, 1.0% in neutral, zero in deteriorating. In a $100,000 portfolio operating in a chop tax environment, maximum risk per trade is $1,000 — not because the setup is weaker, but because the environment does not support full exposure. The framework makes this decision automatic and removes the temptation to override it based on conviction in a single chart.
For the complete weekly scanning workflow that feeds this assessment, see How to Scan the ASX for VCP Patterns Every Week (Step-by-Step). Maintaining and monitoring the watchlist that emerges from this process is covered in Building a VCP Watchlist: Criteria and Monitoring Process. The full Momentum Profile filter system that contextualises these steps within broader market conditions is explained in How to Find the Best ASX Stocks When the Market Turns: The Momentum Profile Filter System.
Frequently Asked Questions — ASX Momentum Trading and Difficult Market Conditions
What is the chop tax in momentum trading?
The chop tax is the hidden cost extracted from disciplined traders by a volatile, range-bound market — not through large individual losses, but through a consistent pattern of correct directional trades that advance toward the profit target and then reverse to breakeven. It is distinct from a losing streak because the trades are technically valid. The entries fire correctly, the positions advance, the target approaches, and then the move fades. The account sits flat while the trader expends effort and capital on setups that produce no return.
Why do momentum trades keep reversing before hitting the profit target?
In a constrained market environment, the institutional buying momentum behind any individual move is insufficient to sustain a clean advance through the first profit target. There is enough buying to push the position into profit — but not enough conviction behind the move to hold it there against profit-taking and broader uncertainty. The result is a consistent pattern of advances that fall just short of the target before reversing. This is a market environment problem, not a process problem. The appropriate response is reducing exposure — not changing the entry methodology.
How does sector strength affect ASX momentum trade win rates?
Significantly. FMP educational analysis of ASX momentum trades — presented for educational purposes and not as a formally published study — shows strong stocks in leading sectors produce a 68.2% win rate with average gains of 14.7%. The same quality of stock in a weak sector produces a 51.3% win rate with average gains of 9.2%. Academic research by Moskowitz and Grinblatt (Journal of Finance, 1999) established that momentum stocks in strong sectors achieve 18.7% annual outperformance compared to only 4.3% in weak sectors. Sector selection is the primary variable in whether a momentum strategy delivers meaningful returns. Stock selection is secondary.
When should ASX momentum traders reduce position sizing?
When the FMP Momentum Profile reads below 50% favourable, when fewer than 60% of tradable ASX stocks are above the 50-day moving average, or when the majority of new momentum leaders are not emerging from fresh Launch Pad entries. Minervini's dynamic position sizing framework provides the structural response: 2.0% capital risk per trade in bullish conditions, 1.0% in neutral conditions, and zero in deteriorating conditions. These are not judgement calls — they are systematic instructions built into the methodology to remove discretion from the decision.
Why do cheap ASX stocks in beaten-down sectors keep getting cheaper?
Because cheapness is not a catalyst. Without an episodic pivot — a news-driven event that demonstrates a structural change in the company's or sector's fundamental position — declining stocks reflect unresolved headwinds that the market has already priced in and will continue pricing in. Capital deployed in anticipation of a recovery that has not yet been confirmed sits idle for months, accumulating opportunity cost while producing no return. In Gary Glover's anecdotal experience, the observation that a stock looks cheap typically precedes the actual low by two to four weeks. Waiting for the catalyst before entry is not missing the opportunity — it is the systematic entry the methodology requires.
How do you maintain trading discipline when the market is not rewarding correct setups?
By recognising that the chop tax is a market environment problem and that the only variable within a trader's control is their response to it. Process discipline in a constrained environment preserves three things: capital, which is required to trade at full size when conditions recover; confidence, which is damaged when rules are broken under pressure; and systematic clarity, which deteriorates when discretionary overrides begin accumulating. A trader who survives a chop tax period within their rules is positioned to act decisively when conditions improve. One who dismantled their methodology attempting to force returns in poor conditions is not.
The Audit Finding That Changes the Framework
The chop tax is permanent — it returns in every market cycle. The conditions change, the specific stocks are different, and the sector rotation that preceded the constrained period was unique. But the pattern of correct directional calls that fail to convert into meaningful returns in a volatile, range-bound ASX momentum trading environment is constant.
Gary Glover's audit finding provides the structural answer that survives every iteration of that pattern: the largest gains in a trading career come from the dominant names in the leading sectors. Not from working harder to find more setups in a constrained environment. Not from deploying capital into beaten-down sectors because they appear cheap. From identifying which sector is receiving institutional rotation, finding the strongest stocks within it, and sizing up correctly once the environment confirms those conditions.
The discipline required is to protect capital, confirm sector strength, scale exposure to match the environment, and remain patient. When conditions recover, the process that survived the chop tax intact is the one positioned to deliver the return that the difficult period withheld.
For an ongoing view of which ASX sectors and stocks are currently demonstrating momentum leadership, visit the FMP Momentum Leaders page. For traders who want to test their pattern recognition before applying this framework to live markets, the free VCP quiz identifies the specific gaps most likely to affect trading decisions under pressure. Common questions about ASX momentum trading methodology are answered in the ASX Momentum Trading FAQ.
Bibliography
Primary Sources
Glover, G. (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168). Recorded market analysis session with Finer Market Points. All observations attributed to Gary Glover in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.
FMP Momentum Profile. Published daily. Accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members. All FMP Momentum Profile data cited in this article reflects readings at the time of the recorded session.
FMP Sector Analysis. Internal educational analysis of ASX momentum trades. Presented for educational purposes only — not a formally published study.
Books
Minervini, M. (2013). Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market. McGraw-Hill.
Peer-Reviewed Academic Research
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x
Moskowitz, T.J., & Grinblatt, M. (1999). Do Industries Explain Momentum? Journal of Finance, 54(4), 1249–1290. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00146
Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources
Hall, C. (2026). How to Find the Best ASX Stocks When the Market Turns: The Momentum Profile Filter System. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). What Is the IBD Power Trend? The Three Conditions That Tell ASX Momentum Traders to Be Fully Invested. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). Mark Minervini VCP Patterns: Why Sector and Thematic Filters Matter More Than Stock Selection. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). How to Identify Leading Sectors for VCP Pattern Trading (ASX Focus). Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). Launch Pad Themes: Finding Emerging Opportunities Before the Market. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). Why GICS Classification Fails ASX Momentum Traders: The Thematic Solution. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). VCP Trade Execution on ASX: Minervini's Entry, Position Sizing & Exit Strategies. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). B-Wave Trade Checklist: 3 Conditions ASX Momentum Traders Need. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). The 50-Day Moving Average Trading System: How One Line Captures 70–80% of Major ASX Moves. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). Why Gary Glover's Trading Philosophy Emphasises Process Over Market Opinions. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). What is Episodic Pivot Trading? The Complete Guide to Catalyst-Based Momentum Trading. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). How to Identify ASX Momentum Leaders: Why Beach Energy Failed While Paladin Rallied 40%. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). Why the Stocks That Fall the Least Are the Ones That Run the Hardest. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). From Energy to Growth: The 3-Signal Framework Gary Glover Uses to Identify the Next ASX Market Leaders. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). How to Improve Your Trading System: Expected Value, Position Sizing and the Trade Journal. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). Why the Best Momentum Traders Study the Same Stocks Repeatedly. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). 7 Momentum Trading Lessons from Gary Glover's ASX Watchlist Review. Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). How to Scan the ASX for VCP Patterns Every Week (Step-by-Step). Finer Market Points.
Hall, C. (2026). Building a VCP Watchlist: Criteria and Monitoring Process. Finer Market Points.
This article is based on analysis and commentary provided by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded market analysis session. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes. Gary Glover has not independently reviewed or endorsed this publication.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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