Marginal New High or Marginal New Low? How Gary Glover Reads a False Breakout on the ASX

Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated August 2026

Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)

A false breakout on the ASX usually begins as a marginal new high — a break that clears prior resistance by a token amount and then stalls. The level is cleared in both the case that runs and the case that fails, so the level itself decides nothing. What separates them is the volume on the push measured against the volume on the pullback. That test comes from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), who reviews ASX momentum stocks in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points, speaking on 18 August 2026 with the ASX 200 consolidating under the 9,300 level. This article sets out the test, applies it at the top and the bottom of a range, and identifies which moving average confirms the pullback.

Watch the 18 August 2026 session in full.

https://youtu.be/qBMuW1GPiu4

Gary Glover and Christopher Hall review the ASX momentum leaders through reporting season — recorded 18 August 2026.

What Is a Marginal New High, and When Is It a False Breakout?

A marginal new high is a break above a prior high by a token amount, followed by a stall rather than a decisive advance. The breakout is technically valid — which is exactly what makes it ambiguous. A rule written on the price level alone returns "valid" for the break that doubles and the break that collapses, so the level cannot be the decider.

Think of it as a door pushed just past its catch. The latch is cleared either way; that part is a matter of a few millimetres. What decides whether the door swings open or falls back and re-latches is whether there is still force behind the hand at the moment it passes. Volume is how that force becomes visible on a chart — and because a door can be pushed from either side, the same reading works at the bottom of a range as well as the top.

The level still matters as a location. William O'Neil's quantitative analysis of 3,000+ of the greatest stock market winners from 1880 to the present, documented in How to Make Money in Stocks (2009) and further detailed in IBD and MarketSmith coaching materials, found that 90.77% broke out from sound bases during confirmed Stage 2 uptrends. The base is where the advances start. The open question is which breaks from those bases are real.

Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that a marginal new high can just as readily become a marginal new low. This is a practitioner observation, not a formal study. He has also made the point in the other direction. Asked during the 12 June 2026 session about a stock that broke out convincingly and immediately reversed back below the level, his answer was short:

"Ninety percent, it goes the other way." — Gary Glover, 12 June 2026 session

His reading is that the false break flushes weak holders out, and the reclaim of the level that follows is the stronger signal — a pattern he has observed across his own trading rather than one drawn from a documented study. It is worth keeping the two figures on this page separate: O'Neil's 90.77% is a quantitative analysis of thousands of historical winners; Gary's ninety percent is a career recollection, and he offered it as one.

Four combinations cover almost every case:

Situation	Volume on the break	Volume on the pullback	What Gary reads
Break being absorbed	Heavy	Light	Momentum behaviour — the move can continue
Break failing	Light, a drifting rally into the high	Heavy, selling arriving at the peak	A topping pattern forming
False break of support	Light on the break down	Heavy as the level is reclaimed	Supply exhausted at the low
Overshoot after an extended run	Thinning, at the end of a long hug of the line	—	A caution flag, not a breakout

The three ASX examples that follow are one of each: Emerald Resources at the top of a range, AGL Energy at the bottom, and Paladin Energy doing both inside a single chart.

How Does Volume Separate a Real Breakout From a False Breakout?

The test is asymmetric: heavy volume on the advance paired with light volume on the decline says the marginal high is being absorbed rather than distributed. Gary described the mirror image first — what he would expect to see if a stock were genuinely topping — and then showed the chart doing the opposite.

Emerald Resources NL (ASX: EMR) had tagged its overhead resistance for a marginal new high and come back off it. On Gary's reading of the topping case, that pullback should have been preceded by low-volume rallies into the high, with selling arriving once the peak was reached. It was not:

"So far we've seen good volume on the rally and then very little volume on the selling here." — Gary Glover, 18 August 2026 session

What followed the marginal high was three days down, on light volume, with the stock holding its 10-day moving average and staying high in the trend. Gary noted during the 18 August 2026 session that this is the price behaviour he wants to see in a momentum name — not proof the stock advances, but the condition under which continuation remains on the table. His first target was the minimum zone marked on his own chart.

One distinction has to be stated plainly, because it is where traders most often misread heavy-volume vs thin-volume breakouts. Light volume on a pullback is constructive: it says genuine sellers have exhausted and the remaining movement is structural. Light volume on the break itself is not: it says the buyers needed to carry the move never arrived. The same reading, two places on the chart, opposite meanings. A marginal new high on thin volume followed by a thin pullback is not a confirmed setup at all — it is an unconfirmed one, which is a different thing from a failed one.

The practical consequence is that the marginal high is not the moment of decision. The three or four sessions after it are.

What Does a Marginal New Low Signal at the Bottom of a Range?

The same test inverts. A marginal new low that is quickly reclaimed, with volume arriving as price recovers the level rather than as it breaks, reads as a false break of support that reverses rather than the start of a downtrend.

AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) is the worked example from the session. On the weekly chart the stock came back and retested its 2025 low, put in a marginal new low, and did not stay there — a false break in Gary's terms. What raised his interest was not the break itself but that this was the third touch of the same level, forming a weekly triple bottom, with a company update and rising volume arriving as the stock came up out of the low.

The direction of the volume is the discriminator. Volume expanding as a stock breaks down through support is participation in the decline. Volume expanding as it recovers the level is the opposite: the sellers who were going to sell have sold, and the buyers stepping in are doing so against a level that has now been tested three times. Gary observed that big moves have come out of triple-bottom setups on weekly charts — recalling, in hedged terms, that Newcrest had done something similar around five or six dollars before trending higher for years. He offered the figure as an approximate memory rather than a record.

One qualification belongs here rather than in a footnote. AGL is a lower average true range stock — Average True Range (ATR) being a volatility indicator measuring the average range between a security's high and low price over a given period, incorporating gaps from the prior close. As Gary put it, it does not move as fast as other names. That makes the reversal slower to develop and easier to enter, and it means the AGL read cannot simply be transplanted onto a volatile chart. The next section is about exactly that problem.

The FMP Momentum Profile — accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — included the relative strength and momentum rankings referenced at the time of the 18 August 2026 session, giving members early access to the educational data discussed in this article.

Which Moving Average Confirms the Pullback — the 10-Day or the 50-Day?

Which moving average confirms a pullback is set by how loosely the stock trades, not by the trader's preference. Applying one average across a whole watchlist produces false signals in half of it.

Tight leaders hold the 10-day

Gary observed that the ASX gold names had tightened up and broken out together on strong volume, and that most of them were then holding their 10-day moving averages on pullbacks. He reads that as a sector-level sign of strength rather than a single-stock signal — when the whole group behaves the same way, the information is about the group. Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) was the example on the weekly chart: the trend intact, the stock sitting well within it, strong volume through the breakout, and a pullback that tightened rather than gave much back.

Loose momentum names cut straight through the 50-day

In the uranium names the 10-day test is meaningless. Gary observed that these stocks cut straight through the 50-day moving average and come back the other side as a matter of habit, so what he waits for is a three-to-four-day pullback that undercuts the 50-day — in his words, about as good as it gets on a chart that erratic.

NexGen Energy (ASX: NXG) shows why: large overnight gaps from offshore trading make an intraday entry unreliable, and the chart is a sequence of holes rather than a continuous line. Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shows the sequence at work. After roughly six or seven months of consecutive lower highs — Gary's own approximate estimate — the stock broke a couple of old swing highs, cleared its July–August box and crossed the 50-day, then made a marginal new high and fell back. Gary's recollection, which he qualified in the session as approximate, is that five of Paladin's last six rallies began after a swing high broke.

	Tight leader (e.g. GMD)	Loose momentum name (e.g. PDN, NXG)
Average that holds	10-day moving average	50-day, and only loosely
Normal pullback	Three days, tightening, little given back	Three to four days, sharp, undercutting the 50-day
What the trader waits for	The 10-day to hold	The undercut, after swing highs have already broken
What invalidates it	A decisive close below the 10-day	Deep retracement with no reclaim

Drawing on Gary Glover's practitioner approach, developed across his trading career and synthesised from the 18 August 2026 session:

1. Wait for one or two old swing highs to break — until then, the downtrend has not shown it is finished.

2. Do not chase the break. In a loose name the entry taken into strength is the entry taken at the worst price.

3. Wait for the three-to-four-day pullback, and let it undercut the 50-day rather than treating the undercut as failure.

4. Read the rest of the thematic while waiting — if the sister companies are falling over, the setup in front of the trader is worth less.

The last point was the one Gary returned to. He noted that Boss Energy (ASX: BOE), previously the laggard of the uranium group, was showing more strength this time than some of the names ahead of it, and that the honest way to use that information is to let price action name the leader rather than deciding in advance which company deserves to be one. The distinction between a first and the second 50-day break is a related refinement of the same idea, and traders working with volatility filters will find the mechanics in FMP's coverage of average true range (ATR) extensions.

When Does a False Breakout on the ASX Actually Mark the End of the Move?

The failure case has a signature of its own: an extended run that hugs a resistance line for a long time and then overshoots it. That is the version Gary treats as a warning rather than a breakout.

"Oftentimes when a stock will sort of run across a certain range or across a resistance line, and then at the end it'll sort of overshoot there — that can actually mark the end of the move." — Gary Glover, 18 August 2026 session

He applied it to the Dow Jones, which had conformed to a broadening pattern for an extended period before tipping over the top of it, and said plainly that he does not like seeing that. The same behaviour appears in reverse at lows: a market that hugs its way down and then rolls off sharply frequently finds its low there.

At index level the volume equivalent is the distribution day, and what distribution days reveal about a forming top is the same asymmetry read across a whole market rather than one chart. Gary noted that the first distribution day of this move had arrived overnight after roughly two weeks of rallying — the first down day on volume since the indices broke out of their consolidations.

Two things about this section have to be held together rather than resolved. Gary's own observation is that ninety percent of the time an immediate reversal off a break goes the other way — so an overshoot is a caution flag, not a reversal call. The two readings are not in conflict: one describes a break that fails within a session or two, the other describes a run that has already gone a long way and ends in one. What separates them is how much has already happened before the break occurs.

Reece Limited (ASX: REH) is the counter-case from the same session. The stock broke out of the top side of a channel it had been in for a long time, above its 50-day moving average and above old highs, on volume Gary described as modest — but modest is normal for Reece, and he treated the volume as neither a positive nor a negative because it was in character for the stock. That is a genuine break rather than an overshoot: a level cleared after a base, not after an extended hug. Gary also noted that Reliance Worldwide (ASX: RWC), a competitor in the same space, had received a takeover bid that day, which he read as a sign that the sector was attracting longer-term interest.

Update — August 2026: the tell showed up across several leaders at once

Three days after this article was published, the same pattern appeared in a cluster rather than a single chart. During the 21 August 2026 session Gary Glover returned to the marginal new high and described a group of ASX leaders that had each run, tightened into a congestion, broken to a new high, and then reversed without follow-through. He named SKS Technologies (ASX: SKS) as the clearest instance — a last drive up to a new high, then failure — and Data#3 (ASX: DTL) as the same structure: tightened, congested, broke to a new high, failed there.

"Seeing a lot of the leaders fail, but we go to a new high and fail as well. So not seeing the follow through there." — Gary Glover, 21 August 2026 session

What makes the cluster different from the single chart is what it says about the tape rather than the stock. A marginal new high that fails on one leader is a stock-specific event. Gary's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that when several leaders produce the same failure in the same week — and he noted the same setup appearing in US leaders at the time — the reading shifts from the individual chart to market condition. His phrase for it was that the market was showing "a little bit of underbelly", with US indices at all-time highs while the leaders underneath them were not confirming.

That is a diagnostic use of the pattern rather than a trading one, and it is worth separating from the entry question the rest of this article covers. It also sits alongside a structural reason a leader can arrive at a new high with nothing behind it — a run that has already banked several ramps without a genuine consolidation, set out in the high tight flag exhaustion limit.

Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.

About the author

Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP, is an Authorised Representative under AFSL 526688 and writes on ASX momentum methodology for Finer Market Points. His work focuses on pattern identification, risk framing and the research process behind the FMP momentum data, applied specifically to Australian listed markets. More detail is on his author profile.

Conclusion

A false breakout on the ASX is ambiguous by construction: the level is cleared whether the move continues or reverses, so the volume behaviour on either side of it is what carries the information. The same test runs in both directions — volume arriving as a stock reclaims a broken low is a false break of support, while a low-volume rally into a high followed by selling at the peak is a top forming. And which moving average confirms the pullback is set by the stock's own character, not by habit: tight leaders hold the 10-day, loose names undercut the 50-day and come back.

What is worth watching from here is whether the gold leaders keep holding those 10-day moving averages on pullbacks, and whether the uranium names offer the pullback under the 50-day that Gary said he was waiting for. Neither is a signal on its own. The supporting Momentum Profile data from the 18 August 2026 session is accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members. Gary's closing point was about the discipline the whole method rests on:

"Get rid of your biases there and just let the price action guide you… don't pick the ones that you think are better companies — let the price action tell you who's the strongest." — Gary Glover, 18 August 2026 session

The analysis in this article draws on Gary Glover's recorded session and the FMP Momentum Profile data, which is published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members. Members receive early access to the educational data that forms the basis of articles like this one. The relative strength and momentum rankings referenced during the 18 August 2026 session are available to members. For information on FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership, visit the FMP YouTube membership page.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a marginal new high in technical analysis?

A marginal new high is a break above a prior high by a token amount, followed by a stall rather than a decisive advance. The breakout is technically valid, which is what makes it ambiguous — the price level alone cannot separate a break that continues from one that reverses. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career on ASX momentum charts, is that a marginal new high can just as readily become a marginal new low, and that the volume behaviour on the push and the pullback is the discriminator.

How can a trader tell a false breakout from a real one?

By comparing the volume on the advance with the volume on the decline that follows. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation from the 18 August 2026 session is that strong volume into the break followed by light volume on the pullback indicates the move is being absorbed, while a low-volume rally into the high followed by selling at the peak is the signature of a topping pattern. This is a practitioner observation from ASX momentum charts, not a formal study, and it describes probability rather than certainty.

What is the difference between a marginal new high and a marginal new low?

They are the same event at opposite ends of a range. A marginal new high is a token break above resistance; a marginal new low is a token break below support. The reading inverts with the direction of the volume: at a high, light volume on the pullback is constructive, while at a low, volume arriving as price reclaims the level is the constructive tell. Both qualify as false breaks when the level is recovered quickly.

Why does volume matter more than price at a breakout level?

Because the price level is cleared in both the case that continues and the case that fails, so on its own it carries no information. Volume measures the participation behind the move. William O'Neil's quantitative analysis of 3,000+ of the greatest stock market winners from 1880 to the present, documented in How to Make Money in Stocks (2009) and further detailed in IBD and MarketSmith coaching materials, found that 90.77% broke out from sound bases during confirmed Stage 2 uptrends — and participation at the break is what distinguishes those bases from the ones that fail.

When should a pullback hold the 10-day moving average rather than the 50-day?

It depends on how loosely the stock trades. Gary Glover observed during the 18 August 2026 session that tight sector leaders — the ASX gold names at that time — were holding their 10-day moving averages on pullbacks, which he reads as a sign of strength. Loose, high-volatility names such as the uranium majors routinely cut straight through the 50-day and back, so applying a 10-day test to them generates constant false signals rather than information.

Does a false breakout mean the trend is over?

Not on its own. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that a stock which breaks out and immediately reverses back through the level resolves the other way roughly ninety percent of the time — the false break clears out weak holders and the reclaim that follows is the stronger signal. The case that concerns him is different: an extended run that has hugged a resistance line for a long time and then overshoots it. The distinction is how much has already happened before the break.

What are the risks of buying a stock immediately after a marginal new high?

The break may be an overshoot at the end of an extended run rather than the start of a new one. Gary Glover cautioned in the 18 August 2026 session that a stock or index which hugs a resistance line and then overshoots it can be marking the end of the move, and entering before the pullback has confirmed removes the only evidence available. Traders in this situation may wish to speak with a qualified financial adviser before acting on any trading decision.

Sources

#	Source	Type
1	Gary Glover (AR 259215), Novus Capital Limited. Finer Market Points session, 18 August 2026.	Practitioner session
2	Gary Glover (AR 259215), Novus Capital Limited. Finer Market Points session, 21 August 2026 — August 2026 update.	Practitioner session
3	Gary Glover (AR 259215), Novus Capital Limited. Finer Market Points session, 12 June 2026.	Practitioner session
4	William O'Neil. How to Make Money in Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2009), with IBD / MarketSmith coaching materials.	Published research
5	Christopher Hall, Finer Market Points. FMP Momentum Profile and relative-strength rankings, 18 August 2026.	FMP proprietary data

All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.

Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources

• Breakout Volume Confirmation: What Gold, Software and Uranium Showed ASX Traders in August 2026 — Christopher Hall

• Wyckoff Springs ASX Trading: Complete Educational Guide for Australian Markets — Christopher Hall

• The Second Break of the 50-Day Moving Average: A Stronger ASX Momentum Entry — Christopher Hall

• Relative Strength Ratings, ATR Extensions and Progressive Exposure — Christopher Hall

• What Distribution Days Reveal About a Forming Market Top — Christopher Hall

This article includes a general trading observation made by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded Finer Market Points session on 18 August 2026. The observation reflects Gary Glover's general approach and his anecdotal observations developed across his trading career — it is general commentary only, and is not a formal study, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade any security. It was made in the course of that session and not in response to any individual's circumstances. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes.

Educational Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Consider your financial situation and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Finer Market Points Pty Ltd, CAR 1304002, AFSL 526688, ABN 87 645 284 680. This general information is educational only and not financial advice, recommendation, forecast or solicitation. Consider your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting. Seek appropriate professional advice. We accept no liability for any loss or damages arising from use. Authors and presenters may hold positions in discussed companies and investment products.