Why Gold Stocks May Continue Lower: The 1983 Panic Pattern and March Equinox Analysis
- Christopher Hall
- Mar 25
- 20 min read
When gold stocks break vertical trends with seven accelerating trend lines—the most extreme pattern Gary Glover (Novus Capital) has observed in his trading career—historical precedent suggests potential for substantial further declines regardless of inflation fundamentals. Analysis of the 1983 gold panic reveals central bank forced liquidation during oil crises prevented gold recovery for nearly two decades, a pattern showing disturbing parallels to current market conditions in March 2025.
This article examines why ASX gold stocks including Northern Star Resources (NST) and Capricorn Metals (CMM) demonstrate technical patterns that historically return to their acceleration starting points, why the 1983 precedent suggests gold may face extended weakness despite high inflation, and how the March equinox cycle—which has marked major ASX turning points every third year since 2002—provides timing framework for identifying potential bottoms.
The educational framework covers seasonal cycle analysis, historical gold panic comparisons, vertical trend breakdown mechanics, and accelerating trend line identification. Gary Glover's research combining Bryce Gilmore's geometry of markets, McLaren's blow-off top framework, and multi-decade historical pattern analysis provides systematic approach to understanding why gold stocks face potential for further declines before establishing sustainable lows.
Lesson 1: Why the March Equinox Marks Major ASX Turning Points Every 3 Years
The March equinox—occurring annually on March 20-22 when daylight and darkness achieve equal duration—has marked major ASX turning points with remarkable consistency, particularly following a three-year cycle pattern observable since 2002.
The Every-Third-Year Pattern
Gary Glover's analysis of ASX market turning points reveals the March equinox marked significant highs or lows every third year:
Major Turning Points:
2023: Major market low
2020: Major market low
2017: Minor market low
2014: Minor market low
2011: Early year low (minor)
2008: Major market high
2005: Lower high
2002: Significant turning point
This pattern extends beyond three-year intervals, with additional minor and major turning points occurring on other March equinox dates throughout the observation period. The question facing traders: does the March 2025 equinox represent a minor turn (3-5 day bounce before continuation lower) or a major turn marking sustainable lows?
Bryce Gilmore's Geometry of Markets Framework
Educational framework from Bryce Gilmore's "Geometry of Markets" suggests major global indices experience significant turning points on equinox and solstice dates. The theoretical foundation: at least one major global index that market participants widely follow will turn on these astronomical dates.
The Four Key Dates:
March Equinox: March 20-22 (equal day/night)
June Solstice: June 20-22 (longest day)
September Equinox: September 20-22 (equal day/night)
December Solstice: December 20-22 (shortest day)
These dates mark seasonal transitions—literally the changing of seasons from astronomical perspective. Human behavioural patterns follow seasonal rhythms: the Christmas rally, "sell in May and go away," and other calendar-based market phenomena demonstrate habitual trading patterns aligned with seasonal cycles.
Sunspot Activity and Market Correlation
Educational research extending beyond Gilmore's work examines sunspot activity correlation with market performance. The theoretical framework: when Earth orbits closer to the sun with higher sunspot activity, markets tend to demonstrate more buoyant behaviour. Conversely, when Earth is furthest from the sun with reduced sunspot activity, markets tend toward weakness.
Glover acknowledges scepticism: "It sounds fairly focus-pocus." However, academic studies have documented correlations between solar activity and market performance, though the mechanisms remain subject to debate within scientific community.
The practical application doesn't require accepting causation. The observable pattern—that major market turns cluster around these dates with frequency exceeding random distribution—provides timing framework regardless of underlying mechanism.
How Gary Glover Uses Equinox Dates in Position Management
Educational methodology doesn't involve "betting the farm" on seasonal dates. Instead, Glover integrates equinox awareness into existing technical analysis, similar to how systematic traders apply Mark Minervini's SEPA methodology for combining multiple confirming factors before entry.
Position Management Applications:
Scenario 1: ABC Correction at EquinoxIf a stock demonstrates ABC correction pattern that undercuts previous low right on the equinox date, particularly at key Fibonacci retracement level, this represents "adding evidence" that strengthens the setup. Multiple confirming factors (technical pattern + seasonal timing + Fibonacci level) increase probability versus single factor alone.
Scenario 2: Stop ManagementTraders holding short positions approaching March equinox might tighten stops or consider closing shorts temporarily, recognising historical tendency for at least minor bounces from these dates. Risk management acknowledges seasonal pattern without requiring conviction in the framework.
Scenario 3: Building Long PositionsGlover's approach: "I might have a couple of little small longs on the day and then as the evidence starts to build and support that, then I might start to build position around that." Small initial positions allow participation if the turn materialises, while limited size prevents significant damage if the date proves insignificant. This scaling approach shares similarities with position sizing frameworks discussed in VCP Trade Execution on ASX: Minervini's Entry, Position Sizing & Exit Strategies.
Critical Limitation:Seasonal dates cannot override prevailing trends. The ASX market demonstrated negative trend heading into March 2025 equinox, suggesting any bounce might prove brief (3-5 day relief rally) before resuming declines. As Glover notes: "Sometimes these can just be minor... we might get a 3 to 5 day move and then we roll off there."
W.D. Gann: "Nothing New Under the Sun"
The legendary trader W.D. Gann observed: "Nothing new under the sun"—market patterns repeat because human behaviour repeats. Mark Twain's variation: "History doesn't repeat but it rhymes."
Human beings demonstrate habitual behaviour at multiple timeframes:
Daily habits: Tying the same shoe first each morning
Weekly habits: Weekend routines
Monthly habits: Bill payment cycles
Yearly habits: Holiday shopping, tax planning, seasonal activities
These habitual patterns aggregate into observable market cycles. When millions of market participants follow similar seasonal rhythms—vacation planning, year-end portfolio adjustments, tax-loss selling—the collective behaviour creates recurring patterns in market data.
The share market represents "all human psychology melted down into one number." Technical analysis examines patterns in those numbers, which fundamentally reflect human behavioural patterns and habits playing out across different timeframes.
Lesson 2: The 1983 Gold Panic—Why Central Bank Liquidation Kept Gold Down 20 Years
When Gary Glover began researching gold stocks in March 2025, he expected to find bullish fundamental case: high inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply disruptions typically favour gold. Instead, his analysis of the 1983 gold panic revealed disturbing parallels suggesting gold may face extended weakness despite seemingly supportive conditions.
The 1983 Oil Crisis and Forced Central Bank Liquidation
The 1983 gold panic occurred during a Middle East oil crisis bearing striking similarity to current conditions. Oil supply disruptions in the region created paradoxical situation for oil-producing nations: oil prices spiked higher, but these nations couldn't capitalise because they couldn't get product to market.
The Liquidation Mechanism:
Oil-producing nations typically generate substantial revenues from petroleum exports. When supply disruptions prevent export despite high prices, government revenues collapse while operating expenses continue. These nations held significant gold reserves but faced immediate cash flow requirements.
The forced liquidation sequence:
Oil supply disruptions reduce export revenues despite high prices
Government expenses continue (payroll, infrastructure, social programs)
Nations liquidate gold reserves to raise cash and maintain operations
Increased gold supply from central bank selling overwhelms demand
Gold prices decline despite inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
Why Gold Didn't Recover:
The critical question: after central banks liquidated gold at distressed prices, why didn't gold recover when conditions normalised?
Institutional selling dynamics differ from retail selling. When central banks sell substantial gold holdings at depressed prices, they don't typically "buy back" those positions when prices fall further. The selling represents permanent reserve reallocation, not tactical position management.
Christopher Hall's research during the discussion: "I'm running through IRIS trying to find a 50-year chart of gold and looking back at the 80s... it's telling me that we didn't surpass that gold price until the commodity super cycle" of the 2000s.
Gold peaked in the early 1980s (around 1980-1981), declined through 1983 panic, then remained in extended sideways/downward pattern until the commodity boom beginning around 2002-2003. This represents nearly 20 years of no recovery despite intermittent inflation concerns, geopolitical events, and other factors typically considered gold-positive.
2025 Parallels: Iran Oil Crisis and Central Bank Pressure
March 2025 conditions show disturbing similarities to 1983, creating what professional traders might recognise as sector rotation away from gold—a dynamic explored in detail in Understanding Vertical Trends and Sector Rotation: Advanced Trading Lessons from ASX Growth Stocks.
Supply Disruption:Geopolitical tensions in Middle East created oil supply constraints. Oil prices spiked, but producing nations faced challenges getting product to market through disrupted shipping routes and trade restrictions. The mechanics of how professional traders respond to these oil shocks is detailed in How Professional Traders React to Oil Price Shocks: The 3-Phase ASX Playbook.
Revenue Pressure:Oil-producing nations experienced same paradox as 1983: high oil prices they cannot fully monetise due to supply chain disruptions, while government expenses continue.
Gold Reserve Holdings:These nations maintain substantial gold reserves accumulated during previous commodity cycles, available for liquidation to meet cash flow requirements.
Inflation Environment:High inflation typically considered gold-supportive, yet in both 1983 and 2025, inflation coincides with forced central bank selling that overwhelms demand.
Who Buys Gold at Depressed Prices?
Glover's critical analysis: "Retail money was in at the highs here so they're not going to be buying because they're all caught. Institutional sort of are they going to be buying dips here maybe maybe a little bit. But central banks are probably the biggest buyer there—they're liquidating here because they can see pressure coming here."
Demand Analysis:
Retail Investors:Retail participants who purchased gold stocks at higher prices (the typical late-cycle buyers) now hold underwater positions. This cohort lacks capital or conviction to average down into further declines.
Institutional Buyers:Institutional participants may provide some buying support at technical levels, but institutions typically avoid "catching falling knives" during forced liquidation events. They wait for stabilisation evidence before committing significant capital.
Central Banks:Historically the largest gold buyers during accumulation phases, central banks currently represent the seller side during liquidation phase. This removes the traditional buyer of last resort from the market.
The Missing Buyer Problem:If retail is trapped, institutions are cautious, and central banks are selling, who provides the demand necessary to absorb supply and create sustainable lows? This question suggests extended bottoming process rather than sharp V-shaped recovery.
Why "This Time Is Different" May Not Apply
Glover acknowledges: "The data there from the 80s. I mean markets are different there. Look, maybe it'll be different this time, but the data was just saying to be a little cautious there about rushing in."
Common rationalisations for dismissing 1983 precedent:
Gold was on gold standard in 1980s (false—US abandoned gold standard in 1971)
Markets more sophisticated now
Central bank policies different
Digital gold/crypto alternatives didn't exist
Modern portfolio theory emphasises gold allocation
However, the core mechanism—forced central bank liquidation during revenue crisis—remains identical. The fundamental dynamics of supply overwhelming demand don't change regardless of market structure evolution.
Educational Takeaway: Research That Changed The Trade
Glover's research process demonstrates systematic approach: "I was thinking before this week that we should be looking to try and buy these, just thinking rationally around high inflation, gold does well in that environment there. But after seeing what happened in the last similar type of event here, that didn't quite work out. So made me a little cautious as to why that would happen."
The willingness to change thesis based on historical evidence—even when conflicting with logical fundamental analysis—represents disciplined trading approach. Fundamental logic suggested buying gold (inflation, uncertainty, geopolitical risk), but historical precedent revealed pattern where those exact conditions coincided with extended decline. This process-over-opinion methodology mirrors the systematic framework discussed in Why Gary Glover's Trading Philosophy Emphasises Process Over Market Opinions.
Lesson 3: Northern Star Resources—Understanding Vertical Trends and Blow-Off Tops
Northern Star Resources (NST) provides educational case study in vertical trend identification and blow-off top pattern recognition. Understanding these technical patterns explains why gold stocks face potential for substantial further declines regardless of fundamental considerations.
What Defines a Vertical Trend
A vertical trend occurs when price acceleration becomes progressively steeper, creating unsustainable advance that resembles a near-vertical line on price charts. McLaren referred to these as "blow-off moves"—the terminal phase of an advance where momentum reaches extreme levels before exhaustion.
Vertical Trend Characteristics:
Acceleration Pattern:Price doesn't advance at constant rate. Instead, the rate of advance itself accelerates—stocks gain 10% one week, 15% the next week, 25% the week after. This acceleration of acceleration creates the distinctive parabolic shape. This pattern shares structural similarities with the accelerating trend line breakdown patterns observed across multiple ASX stocks.
Volume Pattern:Volume typically expands substantially during vertical trends, indicating broad participation and often retail capitulation into the move (FOMO buying). The highest volume often occurs near the peak, representing final surge before reversal.
Time Compression:Vertical trends compress substantial price gains into short timeframes. Advances that might typically take 6-12 months occur in 4-8 weeks, indicating speculative excess rather than sustainable accumulation.
Momentum Divergence:Despite price reaching new highs, momentum indicators (RSI, MACD, rate-of-change) often show negative divergence—momentum peaks before price, indicating underlying strength deteriorating even as price advances.
McLaren's Blow-Off Top Framework
Educational framework from McLaren's technical analysis work suggests blow-off tops follow predictable retracement patterns. The critical observation: when vertical trends break, price historically returns to where the "last drive started"—the point where the final acceleration phase began.
The Retracement Principle:
When a stock makes its final vertical drive from Point A to Point B, subsequent breakdown typically retraces to Point A or slightly below. This occurs regardless of whether the breakdown happens immediately or after period of distribution.
Why This Pattern Repeats:
The retracement to acceleration point occurs because:
Speculative Excess: The vertical phase attracted speculators buying momentum rather than value, creating price extension beyond fundamental support
Weak Holders: Recent buyers during vertical phase have low conviction and exit quickly when momentum reverses
No Accumulation Zone: Vertical moves don't create horizontal accumulation zones that provide support on decline
Momentum Reversal: The same forces driving explosive upside (FOMO, momentum chasing) create explosive downside when sentiment shifts
Historical Validation:
Glover's challenge to readers: "I've been asking people to show me a vertical trend that hasn't come back and I still haven't had one that hasn't come back to where it sort of started."
This represents empirical observation across decades of chart analysis. While individual exceptions may exist, the pattern demonstrates sufficient consistency to establish it as high-probability outcome rather than occasional occurrence.
Northern Star's Vertical Trend Breakdown
Northern Star Resources demonstrated classic vertical trend characteristics before breaking down in March 2025.
The Acceleration Phase:NST advanced from consolidation base with progressively steeper advances. Each leg of the rally showed greater percentage gain in shorter timeframe, creating the characteristic parabolic shape on weekly charts.
The Breakdown:When NST broke the vertical trend line connecting the lows of the final acceleration phase, it signalled the beginning of potential retracement to the starting point of that last drive.
The Retracement Target:Based on McLaren's framework and Glover's empirical observations, NST historically would be likely to retrace to the level where its final vertical acceleration began. This target sits substantially below March 2025 price levels.
Important Nuance:Glover notes: "May not get there all on the first leg here but it often gets pretty close. But it does tend to get back there."
The retracement to acceleration point may occur in multiple waves:
First decline captures 60-70% of the expected retracement
Bounce creates lower high
Second decline completes retracement to acceleration point
Or: Extended choppy decline gradually works down to target over months
The pattern doesn't require immediate crash to target level. The high-probability outcome is eventual return to acceleration point, whether achieved in one sharp move or through extended distribution.
Practical Application for Traders
For Long Positions:Educational frameworks suggest avoiding attempts to buy vertical trend breakdowns until price demonstrates stabilisation at or near the acceleration starting point. Premature entry during the decline frequently results in additional drawdown as the retracement completes.
For Short Positions:Vertical trend breakdowns can provide high-probability short opportunities, though position management requires care due to potential volatility during the decline. Covering partial positions at interim technical levels while holding core short to the acceleration point target represents one approach.
For Position Avoidance:Simply recognising vertical trends and avoiding new long positions in stocks breaking these patterns represents valid application. Capital preservation—not participating in every trade—contributes to long-term success. This selective approach aligns with the leader identification framework detailed in How to Identify ASX Momentum Leaders: Why Beach Energy Failed While Paladin Rallied 40%.
Risk Management:Glover's caution: "Just telling us be careful about trying to jump in too quickly on gold here."
The temptation to "catch the falling knife" increases when stocks decline 30-40% from highs. However, if the high-probability outcome involves retracement to acceleration point (potentially another 20-30% lower), premature entry simply extends the pain trade.
Lesson 4: Capricorn Metals—7 Accelerating Trend Lines Explained
Capricorn Metals (CMM) provides what Gary Glover describes as "one of the most impressive vertical trends I've seen" due to the extreme nature of its acceleration pattern. The stock demonstrated seven distinct accelerating trend lines—an unusual number indicating exceptional speculative excess.
How to Identify Accelerating Trend Lines
Accelerating trend lines connect successive lows during an advance, with each new trend line demonstrating steeper angle than the previous line. This pattern represents the same technical framework examined in Life360's 75% Vertical Move: The Most Extreme Accelerating Trend Line Pattern on the ASX, though Capricorn Metals' seven-line structure proves even more extreme.
The Identification Process:
First Trend Line:Connect the initial lows of the advance. This baseline trend line typically shows moderate slope, representing sustainable rate of advance during early accumulation phase.
Second Trend Line:As the advance continues, price may pull back to a higher low that sits above the first trend line. Connect this new low to a previous low earlier in the advance. This second trend line will have steeper slope than the first, indicating acceleration.
Third Through Seventh Trend Lines:The process repeats—each successive pullback finds support at progressively higher levels, creating new trend lines with incrementally steeper slopes. Each trend line demonstrates the advance is accelerating, not merely continuing at constant rate.
Visual Representation:On Capricorn Metals weekly chart, drawing all seven trend lines creates fan pattern—lines emanating from left side of chart spreading out like a fan toward the right, with the most recent (seventh) line appearing nearly vertical.
Why Seven Accelerating Trend Lines Is Extreme
Most vertical trends demonstrate 3-4 accelerating trend lines before reaching blow-off phase. Capricorn Metals' seven trend lines indicates exceptional momentum that extended well beyond typical speculative excess.
Comparative Context:
Typical Pattern (3-4 Lines):
First line: Initial sustainable advance
Second line: Momentum increases, attracts broader attention
Third line: Speculative participation increases
Fourth line: Blow-off top, FOMO buying
Extreme Pattern (7 Lines - Capricorn Metals):
Lines 1-3: Standard acceleration
Line 4: What would typically represent blow-off continues
Lines 5-6: Exceptional extension, rare to see this many acceleration phases
Line 7: Final parabolic drive, most extreme angle
Glover's observation: "It's probably been one of the most impressive vertical trends I've seen there just because you don't only see that many accelerating trend lines."
The rarity of seven-line patterns doesn't make them invalid—it simply indicates the magnitude of speculative excess reached more extreme levels than typical vertical trends.
The Retracement Implications
The critical question: does having seven accelerating trend lines (versus typical three or four) change the retracement dynamics?
Retracement Principle Remains:Regardless of whether a stock has three or seven accelerating trend lines, McLaren's principle suggests retracement to where the "last drive started." For Capricorn Metals, this means the seventh (most recent) trend line's starting point.
However, Magnitude Considerations:
More accelerating trend lines typically indicates:
Greater Distance: More acceleration phases create larger gap between peak and acceleration start point
Weaker Support: No horizontal consolidation zones developed during vertical ascent to provide support
Broader Participation: More phases attracted more participants, meaning more underwater holders potentially selling on bounces
Deeper Retracement Risk: Extreme patterns sometimes overshoot targets, declining below the acceleration start point
CMM Specific Pattern:
Glover notes Capricorn Metals "broke early, before Evolution and Newmont there. So actually broke that seventh line there, then went back and retested that line before it sort of failed there."
This retest behaviour—breaking the trend line, bouncing back to test it from below, then failing—represents classic resistance/support role reversal. The prior support trend line becomes resistance once broken, creating opportunity for short entry or long exit on the retest bounce.
Comparative Analysis: CMM vs Other Gold Stocks
Capricorn Metals Timing:Broke the vertical trend line earlier than peer group stocks Evolution Mining (EVN) and Newmont Corporation operations, providing early warning signal for the broader gold sector weakness.
Northern Star Timing:NST held its final acceleration trend line longer than Capricorn Metals, suggesting relative strength initially. However, once broken, both stocks demonstrate similar retracement pattern toward their respective acceleration starting points.
Educational Insight:Within sector experiencing broad weakness, individual stocks break vertical trends at different times. The first breaks (like Capricorn Metals) serve as early warning signals that sector momentum is deteriorating, even if other stocks initially hold support levels. This dynamic parallels the leader-versus-laggard identification framework, where systematic traders monitoring multiple sector stocks can use first breaks to reduce exposure, tighten stops on remaining positions, or avoid new long entries in the sector—even before their specific holdings break down.
The "Show Me Otherwise" Challenge
Glover issues direct challenge: "I haven't seen it not do that. So that's the minimum move that we should be looking for."
This empirical observation—based on decades of analysing thousands of charts—establishes the retracement to acceleration point as high-probability outcome rather than theoretical possibility. The burden of proof rests with those arguing "this time is different" to demonstrate vertical trends that didn't retrace to their acceleration starting points.
For educational purposes, traders should:
Identify vertical trends in their own analysis
Mark the acceleration starting point (where final drive began)
Monitor whether breakdown retraces to that level
Document exceptions if found
Calculate success rate of the pattern over meaningful sample size
This systematic approach transforms theoretical framework into personal conviction based on observed outcomes rather than accepting patterns on authority.
Lesson 5: Using March Equinox Timing for Gold Entry Signals
The integration of March equinox seasonal timing with gold stock technical analysis creates systematic framework for identifying potential bottom formations while avoiding premature entries during ongoing breakdowns.
The Timing-Technical Integration Framework
The March equinox (March 20-22, 2025) provides potential timing signal for short-term lows, while vertical trend retracement targets provide price objectives. Combined, these create entry zone framework similar to how VCP pattern traders combine multiple timeframes for higher-probability entries.
Scenario 1: Equinox Low with Incomplete Retracement
If gold stocks form short-term low on March equinox dates but haven't completed retracement to vertical trend acceleration points:
Pattern: ABC correction finds low on equinox, forms higher low, begins bounce
Assessment: Likely minor turn (3-5 day bounce) before resuming decline toward retracement targets
Possible Response: Traders may avoid new long positions; potential for day-trading bounce but not position trades
Risk: Misinterpreting minor turn as major bottom leads to premature long entry
Scenario 2: Equinox Low at Retracement Completion
If gold stocks retrace to acceleration starting points and form lows coinciding with March equinox:
Pattern: Complete retracement meets seasonal timing signal
Assessment: Higher probability major bottom formation (multiple confirming factors)
Possible Response: Monitor for additional evidence—volume contraction, higher lows, range breaks
Entry Framework: Small initial position on equinox, add on technical confirmation
Scenario 3: Equinox Passes Without Retracement
If March equinox arrives before gold stocks complete vertical trend retracements:
Pattern: Calendar timing signal occurs but technical targets not achieved
Assessment: Technical analysis takes precedence over calendar timing
Possible Response: Maintain caution; subsequent equinox dates (June, September) may prove more significant
Educational Principle: Technical patterns override seasonal timing when in conflict
Evidence-Based Entry Criteria
Glover's approach emphasises waiting for confirming evidence rather than anticipating turns based solely on calendar dates:
Primary Evidence Requirements:
ABC Correction Structure:Three-wave decline into equinox date demonstrates corrective pattern (temporary decline) rather than impulsive breakdown (trend continuation). ABC pattern suggests higher probability of bounce, similar to the ABC correction methodology detailed in Cup & Handle Patterns: Why 40% of ASX Momentum Leaders Form This Setup.
Fibonacci Level Confluence:Equinox low occurring at key Fibonacci retracement level (50%, 61.8%, or vertical trend acceleration point) adds technical support to calendar timing.
Volume Characteristics:Final decline wave (C-wave) demonstrates lightest volume of the correction, indicating supply exhaustion. Subsequent bounce shows expanding volume, confirming demand returning.
Range Break Confirmation:After forming potential equinox low, price breaks above prior day's high (or multi-day range high), providing first technical evidence that downward momentum has arrested.
Position Management on Equinox Dates
For Existing Short Positions:
Tighten stops to recent swing highs
Consider covering partial position to lock in profits
Recognise potential for multi-day bounce even if larger trend remains down
Avoid letting profitable short turn into loss through equinox reversal
For New Long Positions:
"Couple of little small longs on the day" (Glover's approach)
History indicates starting with smaller position sizes (perhaps 25-50% of normal) initially
Add to position only if technical evidence confirms the turn
Accept losses quickly if bounce fails to materialise
For Cash Positions:
Create watchlist of potential entries
Monitor for evidence through March 20-25 window
Recognise opportunity cost of remaining sideline if major turn occurs
Accept that waiting for complete confirmation may sacrifice early entry advantage
The 1983 Precedent Warning
The critical caution: even if March equinox marks short-term low for gold stocks, the 1983 historical precedent suggests this may represent beginning of extended bottoming process rather than launch point for new advance.
Extended Bottom Scenarios:
Scenario A: Multiple Equinox LowsGold stocks form low at March 2025 equinox, rally briefly, decline to new low at June or September 2025 equinox, creating multi-month base. This represents "correction in time" where price oscillates in range while overhead supply gets absorbed.
Scenario B: Failed Rally PatternMarch equinox marks short-term low, stocks rally 20-30%, then roll over and make new lows months later. Pattern similar to 1983 when initial bounces failed to establish sustainable advance.
Scenario C: Extended Sideways RangeGold stocks stabilise near March equinox lows but don't advance meaningfully for months or years, similar to post-1983 pattern where gold remained range-bound for extended period.
Educational Framework:Identifying a low differs from identifying beginning of new bull market. The March equinox may successfully mark THE low (price doesn't go lower) without marking the START of sustainable advance (price doesn't go significantly higher either).
Alternative Opportunities vs Gold
While gold faces technical headwinds and historical precedent suggesting extended weakness, Glover's methodology involves scanning broader market for relative strength opportunities rather than forcing trades in sectors showing distribution. This sector rotation awareness, detailed in From Energy to Growth: The 3-Signal Framework Gary Glover Uses to Identify the Next ASX Market Leaders, helps traders allocate capital to highest-probability setups.
The March equinox may prove more significant for sectors building accumulation patterns than for gold stocks completing distribution. Systematic approach involves capital allocation to highest-probability setups rather than loyalty to particular sectors or assets.
Practical Application Framework
Systematic approach to gold stocks through March-June 2025 period integrating technical, historical, and seasonal analysis:
Step 1: Monitor Vertical Trend Retracement ProgressTrack Northern Star, Capricorn Metals, Evolution Mining, and Newmont positions relative to their final acceleration starting points. Calculate percentage completion of expected retracement.
Step 2: Mark March Equinox Window (March 20-25)Monitor price action during five-day window around equinox. Look for potential reversal patterns—ABC corrections, volume exhaustion, failed breakdown attempts.
Step 3: Assess Evidence QualityIf low forms during equinox window, evaluate: Does it coincide with retracement target completion? Does volume contract on final decline? Does range break confirm reversal? Multiple confirming factors increase probability versus single factor.
Step 4: Consider Position Sizing Based on ProbabilityInitial entries reflect probability assessment. High-confidence setups (multiple confirming factors) may justify larger allocations. Lower-confidence setups (calendar timing only) historically involve smaller initial positions with plan to add on confirmation.
Step 5: Manage Based on EvidenceMonitor whether bounce develops follow-through (higher highs, higher lows, expanding volume on advances). Traders may add to positions showing confirmation or exit positions failing to develop constructive pattern within 5-10 days.
Step 6: Reference 1983 PrecedentMaintain realistic expectations. Even successful equinox low may mark beginning of extended base rather than V-shaped recovery. Adjust position sizing and time horizon accordingly.
Educational Disclaimer
This content provides educational analysis of seasonal cycles, historical market patterns, and technical chart analysis frameworks. The methodologies discussed represent educational synthesis of Bryce Gilmore's geometry of markets, McLaren's blow-off top frameworks, and Gary Glover's empirical observations. This content does not constitute financial advice, recommendations, or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.
Stock Examples: All stock examples (Northern Star Resources/NST, Capricorn Metals/CMM, and references to Evolution Mining/EVN and Newmont) reference historical price action during specific observation periods for educational pattern illustration only. These examples do not constitute recommendations for current or future action. These securities may no longer display these patterns, may have materially different fundamentals, or may no longer be suitable for the strategies discussed.
Historical Analysis: The 1983 gold panic analysis represents historical observation of market dynamics during specific economic conditions. Historical patterns do not predict future outcomes. Current market conditions may differ materially from 1983 in ways that invalidate pattern comparisons.
Seasonal Cycles: References to March equinox, Bryce Gilmore's geometry of markets, sunspot activity correlations, and W.D. Gann's observations represent educational discussion of market timing frameworks. These frameworks do not guarantee turning points occur on specified dates. Calendar-based timing should not be used as sole basis for trading decisions.
Gary Glover's Methodology: Gary Glover's trading experiences, research process, and methodologies represent individual approaches based on his specific experience, capital, and risk tolerance. These methodologies are presented for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as recommendations for individual application.
Risk of Loss: All trading and investment involves substantial risk of loss, including total loss of capital. The vertical trend analysis, accelerating trend line frameworks, and seasonal timing approaches discussed require adaptation to individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and financial objectives.
Content Source Disclosure
This educational analysis draws from weekly ASX market discussions between Gary Glover (Novus Capital) and Christopher Hall (Finer Market Points), recorded March 2025. Gary's observations represent his personal trading methodology and educational commentary, not recommendations. All stock examples reference historical price action from that discussion period for educational purposes only.
Gary Glover (AR 259215) is an Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168) providing educational market analysis during FMP's weekly video discussions. His commentary represents personal trading experiences and educational observations—not recommendations from Finer Market Points.
Educational Disclaimer
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