Trend Starts and Retracement Depth — ASX APE, 360, DYL, GMD — Gary Glover FMP Session August 2026

Trend Starts and Retracement Depth — ASX APE, 360, DYL, GMD — Gary Glover FMP Session August 2026

Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | August 2026

Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)

In the 4 August 2026 Finer Market Points session, Gary Glover works through what a market top looks like before it forms, the August–September midterm-election window, bullish spacing across the US indices, the ASX XJO diamond top, and then the start and strength of a trend across two thematics — uranium and gold. Named this session: APE, 360, WTC, XRO, REA, HUB, TNE, CAR, SEK, LLC, JHX, REH, FBU, DYL, PDN, GMD, WDS and STO.

Watch the session: https://youtu.be/XI64DunmccY

Read the full analysis: How Deep Should an ASX Pullback Go? Retracement Depth for the Index, Industrials and Miners

Chapters

• [0:00] What a market top looks like

• [2:00] August–September market high — midterm election cycle

• [4:00] Bullish spacing points to upward movement

• [5:30] Carry trade and other pressures on markets

• [6:40] ASX XJO diamond top

• [8:30] Momentum Profile insights

• [9:40] Inflation impacts, Australian budget

• [11:00] Eagers Automotive (ASX: APE)

• [14:00] Life360 (ASX: 360) getting above the 50-day moving average

• [17:30] WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC) — the next chapter

• [21:30] Lend Lease (ASX: LLC) — builders showing strength

• [25:00] Uranium, energy and Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL)

• [26:30] Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN)

• [28:30] Gold stocks — insights

• [29:00] Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) — higher lows and tighter price ranges

• [31:00] Gold's relative strength

Transcript

Speaker labels are assigned from the question-and-answer structure of the session: Christopher Hall puts the questions and reads the charts; Gary Glover gives the trading assessment. Timestamps are the published chapter markers — this transcript is not timestamped per utterance.

[0:00] What a market top looks like

Christopher Hall: We're going to be looking at the start of a trend and how to assess the strength of a trend this week. We're also going to be looking at the top uranium companies on the ASX to understand where they are sitting in their current trend, or in the formation of a trend. Gary Glover has been looking at all of these charts and put them forward in his weekly report, and we're going to look at them to understand where we're up to with the indices.

Gary, as you're looking at this market you're consistently assessing the indices. It's volatile, to say the least, but it has been at the end of a very, very long run. And we sit inside that midterm election window, which we do know historically can be the weakest part of a four-year cycle that repeats time and time again. What's catching your eye? Where's your focus going this week?

Gary Glover: The Nasdaq and the S&P have gone sideways — more of a sideways consolidation. The Nasdaq is really the only one that's peeled back a bit, whereas the S&P has been in that tighter range, and the Dow as well. That's not typically how they finish. They can go through a long congestion period, but you'd want to see a congestion period and then a high. I think 1999 had a similar congested period and then ran up and marked a new high.

We've definitely got some of the leading sectors in the US that have already rolled off, which is interesting. Maybe we might see a bit of an improvement in breadth here. But we've just got to wait at this stage.

[2:00] August–September market high — midterm election cycle

Gary Glover: I'm still wary about an August high for the market. And if it's not August, then it won't go any further than September, in my opinion. Not many have pushed into September in the midterm years without pulling back.

If I go back and look at all those midterm years, maybe one out of the last twenty-five went back a fair amount — only one didn't have much of a correction in that last quarter. So the odds do favour a bit of a pullback into that midterm timeframe. Ideally you want to see congestion there, a bit of a fourth-wave type of thing, and then go to a new high.

It's interesting — we're seeing a few things starting to rally. It might be the first time in a while that we actually see a lot of the sectors rallying at the same time, whereas it has definitely been rotation from one to another. But we'll see what happens. I'll be watching that overhead trend line and seeing whether it can go back and retest some of those upper bands.

[4:00] Bullish spacing points to upward movement

Christopher Hall: I understand the ten-year cycle and the US presidential four-year cycle you're talking about, with the midterm elections and the high propensity for weakness between August and October. But what stood out to me in this week's report is the spacing you talk about — that bullish spacing telling you the strength of a trend.

On the Nasdaq we saw the pullback earlier in the year, in April, and then it shot out into May. That didn't get down to sit on the old highs, so that's bullish spacing, because there's distance between the high and the low. Similar thing on the S&P 500 — we've got distance between high and low. If it now pushes up to new highs from where it is, that's even more space between the old highs we had in late 2025 and early 2026. Putting aside the ASX for a second, the Dow is also giving us that spacing from the early-2026 highs to the lows we've seen in the last couple of weeks.

If I'm putting a momentum hat on and trying to understand the momentum of the indices — is this bullish spacing still valid, if we set aside the cycle and zero in on the spacing?

Gary Glover: I think it is for the S&P and the Nasdaq. The Dow's a little bit young. The Nasdaq has had a much healthier decline. The S&P is probably the strongest one, because it's really been more of a sideways correction, and as you say it has less spacing there.

Even last night we've taken out — we haven't taken the high out, but we've taken those two lower highs out. And that does point to going up here in the short term. So it looks like we're going to go to a new high, which is funny — it's what you're looking for if you learn the market dynamics, but you're kind of hoping it builds that way and holds that way. You never know sometimes. We did see quite a few distribution days in there. We saw a few market leaders in the US have some fairly hefty declines. We saw the Korean market, and some other markets, have some pretty hefty stuff.

[5:30] Carry trade and other pressures on markets

Gary Glover: You've got this carry trade, which is a bit of a concern at the moment. The Japanese government has tried to intervene, and now the US government is trying to intervene. Intervention normally doesn't end well. It's like the government here trying to slow down property — in the end they end up butchering it, probably killing it.

[6:40] ASX XJO diamond top

Gary Glover: I can definitely see this motoring up here and having a last little run. It's just how big that move is. Probably the better signal is the fact that we've had that little diamond top and come out the side. Last time we had that, it only went for a couple of weeks, it pulled back, then it went another week higher, then it pulled back again. So it doesn't guarantee you're going to have a massive move. But it does guarantee us, in some regards, that we're going to go and break that high. To me that's a bit of a breakout — I'd be shocked if we don't take the high out. Maybe we go to 9,300 or 9,400, and then that's when you start to see everything get involved.

[8:30] Momentum Profile insights

Gary Glover: We might get a bit of a push on. I'm still not seeing heaps of clear signals. That momentum score on Friday might be recovering a bit — we might start to see a few — but it's still a pretty tricky environment. Even though the market's breaking out here, everyone's waiting for what we call a follow-through day in the States. Still not seeing heaps of great tight setups. If anything it's probably a little loose, the market's a bit volatile. That diamond, if you look at how we came out of it last time, that was pretty loose coming out of it as well. Short-term wise, it looks like we want to go a little bit higher, for sure.

Christopher Hall: If we learn anything from the history of how the ASX trades — exactly like you said, the momentum profile isn't too great, could be improving, but our market likes consistency in market behaviour. This type of movement with the index tells us about the constituents — the ASX 200. Gary and I will look outside the ASX 200, so it's not completely reflected in this chart, but it's been giving this behaviour, those weaker signals. I'd agree with you. It probably just won't turn the tap instantly. We like a bit of consistency, and that helps momentum in our market.

Anything else to add on the Dow Jones, or is it just a little bit younger — and then we move into the individual shares?

Gary Glover: I'm pretty confident most of these markets are going to go to a new high. What I'm not confident about is how long this goes for. Does it go for two weeks, or can it extend out to six weeks? I can't see it going past mid-September — so that's probably only about six weeks. If we were to run up into the middle of September, do something like a six-week run, that's when I'd be de-risking in a big way. This market's been running for quite a while and there are still a lot of issues going on.

[9:40] Inflation impacts, Australian budget

Gary Glover: Think about inflation — it does fuel the push towards holding assets. And the government's budget, and what they've maybe done to the property market, probably bodes well for shares. If you kill one asset class, the money's going to go somewhere else — it's going to go to shares.

Christopher Hall: It looks like ETFs are set to gain because of how the rebalancing happens — it's the best way to index capital gains. It's almost as if the budget was written for the benefit of ETFs. We're not going to go that far, but it's just another case of who's getting the payment. Industry super funds taking it in-house, taking it away from fund managers, and MySuper — they all benefit. That's getting into the nuances. If we want to look at momentum trading and how to find the best opportunities, we need to know where those structural tailwinds are and use them to our benefit. So that's what we'll look for in the next layer, where we look at your individual companies.

[11:00] Eagers Automotive (ASX: APE)

Christopher Hall: When you're looking at companies with strength — Eagers Automotive. We can see there was a good tailwind here; 2025 was a stellar year for them. Look at that huge growth, going from about ten to twelve dollars up to thirty-six — a threefold move within the space of twelve months. It has come back, I want to say about halfway through the range, but then it's turned sideways a little bit. That overhead resistance, the downward red diagonal line, it has now popped up over, and the volume hasn't been huge in that movement. But it also hasn't been huge in that sideways congestion. What's the part that's caught your eye for this week?

Gary Glover: Two things. Obviously we've had a decent pullback. In recent times that decline has really stopped and slowed down. We've been trending down for a while, and that last probably four or five weeks before it broke out, it's been struggling to go down. So that's the first time in that trend where it's gone heavy down, heavy down, medium down, struggling to go down.

And then the whole thing's tightened up as well. Each correction has gotten smaller and smaller. And it just happens to have bounced off that key fib as well — 61.8. So it's got support at a bit of a key level for industrials. 61.8 is a big correction for a large industrial.

It's funny — our index has got a history of finding support at the 50% levels and expanding 50%. Industrial stocks have a history of coming back to either the 50% or the 61.8% — that would be a deep pullback for a blue chip or a mid-to-large cap. And then your mining stocks, they have this history of coming back three quarters of the range. They come back a lot further, because they're a bit more volatile. They'll come back to about three quarters, or the other key fib in there — 66.8. But they'll often come back three quarters of that range and expand from there.

So it's just at a key level. Watching this one — it looks like it's broken out, so it's likely to have a bit of a run. Again, is it going to run for two weeks or six weeks, or maybe a bit longer? But yes, it has broken out. Pretty good setup.

[14:00] Life360 (ASX: 360) getting above the 50-day moving average

Christopher Hall: We looked at it before with the indices — the strength of a trend and the spacing. But we're also looking at what starts a trend. APE has shown us in the last twelve to eighteen months that it's had the ability to really get on and get momentum behind it, then go through this transition, reload and rally again. So that's what Gary's looking at here — the start of a trend. And it can also start in a different way.

Life360 — you're talking about a company that goes up significantly. We've got a few different expansion points here, but it has pulled back from around the fifty-five level to, I want to say, seventeen-ish. That's more than a 50% retracement of the whole share price, let alone the move. What becomes important at this stage? Is it a 0-1-2-3 kind of low — understanding this is a weekly chart? Is it a higher low? Is it breaking out of a channel? Is it breaking a swing high? What becomes the key component you'd look for, for something like Life360 to become a viable trade?

Gary Glover: The first thing I want to see is it starting to get above those ten- and twenty-week moving averages. The ten-week is really, on the daily chart, the fifty-day moving average. And we know good things happen above the fifty and bad things happen below the fifty. Just from a momentum point of view, but also for industrials — getting above that fifty-day moving average is quite important. It shows you're starting to build above that.

We know bases take a little while to form. We want to see a few higher lows. What's encouraging here is that we're above the fifty, we're now above the hundred-day as well, and we're just starting to build. We've got a few higher lows in there. The last pullback has come back those three weeks on very light volume and just sat on top of that prior high. And then we've had a pretty decent volume up-week as well. That's constructive.

We don't want to be trying to pick bottoms — that's the risky part. But the first thing we want to see is it get above the fifty-day moving average on the daily. That's a big plus, because it starts to show the stock building. And now we're above the ten- and twenty-week moving average, which is pretty constructive.

It's been a pretty big decline, but it has taken a while to build. It looked pretty constructive, actually. It's up six or seven per cent today, so it looks like it's on its way. I'm not sure the fifty-week moving average is something to watch for — from what I've seen it's cut above and below that. But maybe looking at those levels, I was looking at 31.09 as the 250 expansion. I've seen some of those fibs on the way up, so they might be important on this wipe again as well.

[17:30] WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC) — the next chapter

Christopher Hall: The next one in your report — WiseTech Global. We've talked about this a few times, in the sense that it's been in the media for the wrong reasons. But the A-B-C side of things: this is A, this is B, and then C comes down to maybe here. Maybe this is a bottom. A equals C, maybe the retracement level is somewhat comparable. The important point I see on your chart is: yes, it had that rapid run-off in share price, and then volume was a little bit lower, and then it's picked up. And that pickup is almost — stealing a phrase from what you said before — the inability to go lower here. Is that enough time to show inability to go lower and get an interest, or is it a swing high that you want to see broken? What's the next chapter you want WiseTech to show us?

Gary Glover: I kind of highlight it in some regards because we've been looking at which stocks are the strongest, which follow, and which are the laggards in that area. TechnologyOne and, I think, PME have probably been the stronger ones that have come through and broken above the fifty. Most of them actually broke above the fifty, came back into the fifty, and then went. Some of the others are starting to follow now as well — CAR Group, SEEK and 360 are starting to get going. And probably WiseTech, maybe even REA and HUB, and Xero are the laggards there. That's not always the case; some of those have been stronger in prior periods.

From a momentum point of view it's always best to be with the strongest names. They're the ones that tend to kick on and have the bigger moves. But we are seeing the sector get healthy, so we know sister companies are probably going to play catch-up.

Interesting that WiseTech has had a month, maybe even six weeks of heavier volume, and came in with a bit of a sideways period — and a spring. It went sideways for a while, and on the daily it flashed down and made a new low. Xero actually did the same thing. What's interesting is that Xero came back to about a ten-year low — it's come back to where the last leg started quite a few years ago. So it's come back to a really long-term key level.

Both of these stocks have come back and found a new low, and they've actually rallied out of those lows in an aggressive manner and on pretty good volume. So a bit of a spring type of setup. It's a bit early and it's definitely been a laggard, but definitely one to watch, because this has had other things keeping it down. Normally the reporting hasn't been an issue — it's all the sideshow around the reporting that's been the issue for this company. So it could be one worth watching around reporting season, because I think it's probably going to be one of the bigger beneficiaries of AI as well. They've already started to implement it, saw some margin improvements, and hinted at some pretty decent layoffs. It'd be a pretty interesting company to watch this season, as to how that's implemented and how it affects the business.

You've seen some of those stocks that have had declines — all those software names are on the improve now.

[21:30] Lend Lease (ASX: LLC) — builders showing strength

Christopher Hall: Another one in the list is Lend Lease. It definitely has had that slide. Moving averages on the weekly chart tell us it's been long-term one-way traffic. Quite a spring — it came out, busted through that low and went significantly lower with a lot more volume. It's rallied back over the ten-week average, this blue line, and now it's toyed with it and got back under it. We've discussed in the last month or so the importance of actually getting over it, holding it, and quite often the second attempt to get through it. And you've talked about the twenty-day moving average as another tactic to use in a market like this. What are the key attributes you're looking at here for Lend Lease?

Gary Glover: It's funny how I'm showing the laggards here, which is probably not where we'd normally be trading. But Lend Lease highlights another thing, similar to WiseTech: those sectors are now showing strength. We are seeing strength in the builders — James Hardie, Reece, Fletchers has had a pretty good run. So we're starting to see the whole sector itself. Again, this shows that if you trade the leaders, those other leaders have really kicked on.

Whereas Lend Lease — it's had a nice rally off the low, and then it's had a little tight range, it's tightened up here. So this looks quite good. I think it'll probably bounce and have a nice move. But I'd suggest the rally out of Lend Lease is going to be a fair way shorter than those other stocks I've listed that have already run and led.

Lend Lease looks good just because it's had that nice burst, good volume, it's now got itself above the fifty-day, and we're threatening to break above the hundred-day moving average as well. Once they start to break above those, they're in better shape. There was good volume at the low, which is a sign of accumulation. But the reason it will probably underperform the other names, Chris, is where it sits on the chart, and all that overhead supply. Anyone who's bought it in the last eighteen months is going to be underwater — unless you bought it in the last few weeks. So it's going to face a bit of a wall of selling.

In the past I've played these sorts of stocks, and they've gone up and had a run, but they haven't had as strong a run as some of the leaders. Just interesting that we're starting to see a lot of the laggards look quite good here. That's probably the last thing we normally see at the tail end of these bull markets — the laggards get involved.

Small caps is the other thing to keep an eye on, but that's not the classic market here at the moment. The small caps have had a better go in the sector rotation already. Maybe we'll see a bit more there. The good sign is the laggards are looking pretty strong, which means we might hopefully run for the next two to six weeks at least.

[25:00] Uranium, energy and Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL)

Christopher Hall: You've talked about small caps. One area we've seen a lot of interest in over time has been the uranium small caps. But if we look at the larger names, the ones in the ASX 300 or the bigger names in the uranium space — Deep Yellow is one of them. Looking at that share price, huge range. Yes, it's a weekly chart, but we're seeing movements from eighty cents to three dollars within twelve months, and then giving most of it back to come back to where it is now, floating around the one-twenty, one-thirty area. Why this chart? What's this teaching us?

Gary Glover: Energy — obviously energy, precious metals and value shares have been some of the stronger places to be in the market. That's something we've seen historically in a high-inflationary environment as well. Most of those energy stocks — Woodside came back 50% of the range and then started to build. Maybe Santos came back a little deeper. We've still got to look in this energy sphere, and also the precious metals.

[26:30] Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN)

Gary Glover: Paladin has just broken a little swing high on the daily. That's the first time it's actually broken a high there. So I'm looking for the first higher low, and then a break above that zone. In the past, if we've just waited for that first lower high to be broken, that's been a reasonable trigger.

It's pretty volatile — you can definitely get a bit of a deep move here. Hopefully what happens is it goes to, say, the fifty-day, then it pulls back again and maybe tightens up, and maybe we get another lower high, an even lower entry. We want to see it tighten up and then come through.

I think that's a sector to watch out for. The long-term energy story is still pretty robust. We've seen all those energy stocks — coal stocks had a pretty decent pullback into the first quarter of this year and they've stayed pretty robust; oil and gas stocks had a pretty decent pullback and they stayed robust. So these uranium stocks are definitely ones to be watching for. We just want to see price tighten up, start to see a few higher lows, and then break through some higher highs. We've got to wait for that classic setup, because as we've seen, they can have some pretty big declines in those material stocks. Unlike the industrials, they'll come back three quarters of the range — they'll come back pretty deep.

Deep Yellow — I just think that's had a really nice correction. And as Paladin starts to tighten up here and show a little bit of strength, they've all come back here, and that's nice. The sector is pretty similar — all the uranium stocks are looking pretty similar.

[28:30] Gold stocks — insights

Gary Glover: And all the gold stocks are looking very similar as well. The only thing about the gold stocks is that some of them are making higher highs, and others are only making maybe one higher high. So we want to be looking at the stocks that are either showing that relative strength — basically holding up the best — or the stocks that are actually starting to make a series of higher lows already.

[29:00] Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) — higher lows and tighter price ranges

Christopher Hall: So is Genesis one of those you're talking about with gold? Talk about higher lows, but it's not quite higher highs. I'd almost want to say VCP — what I'm really talking about is the contractions within it. It is tightening up.

Gary Glover: Gold's doing the same thing. Gold has tightened up, maybe a little bit lower here. Some of the stocks have made two or three higher lows, and some others have actually continued to make lows and really only have one higher low at the moment. So I'm looking for the stocks showing the greatest strength.

GMD is still in a pretty strong position. And I also like the weekly setup, Chris — it was kind of in my B-wave sort of setup as well, in that the weeklies pulled back and kind of sat on top of the prior high. So it still leaves it in a pretty strong position longer term, if we're sat on top of the prior high as well. It just means the trend structure is still — like we were talking about at the start, spacing on top is pretty healthy for the US market, spacing's pretty good — but GMD has just come back and sat on top of a weekly high. I think that's constructive.

It's funny, everyone's watching gold at the moment. I see a few guys overseas talking about it and just how tight it is. Even some of the biggest gold bulls are just saying, please just break one way or the other so we can know. There are a few eyes on it, because the whole thing has tightened up.

[31:00] Gold's relative strength

Christopher Hall: An extension of what we talked about before with gold in a previous interview — I'm looking at the chart here where I run a ratio of the ASX gold miners versus the spot gold price. That's been flatlining pretty much since the start of July. So here we are, five coming to six weeks of it really not having a direction. And that's rare for this ratio not to give an indication one way or the other. What that flows through, from a trading perspective — Gary, you've probably traded this, where you find the gold equities end up leading the commodity itself, just because they have more leveraged exposure to a run or a price change in the commodity or the spot price. So I find that interesting.

Gary Glover: I do look at a lot of the relative strength. I look at certain market cap and a relative strength rating over seventy — I scan that on most days now. The number of gold names above the seventy RS has actually been growing, which is funny, because the whole thing has tightened up here and maybe the market's kicking up. But I haven't seen another sector emerge like that. It's got the hallmarks there, it just hasn't shown the kick. The whole thing is tightening up, but it's definitely the sector I'm watching probably the most closely at the moment.

Christopher Hall: If anyone's wondering how to run that sort of list Gary's talking about — Momentum Profile members are able to look at the whole ASX and filter exactly for that, over an RS of seventy and other filters they want. What we'll look forward to is what Gary looks at on Friday, when he goes through the Launch Pad and digs out the leading thematics, the ones lighting up the Launch Pad. That's been the precursor to something like uranium, lithium, gold or property trusts going for a run.

On that note, we'll say thank you and look forward to seeing you on Friday for your insights into those leading thematics.

Gary Glover: Thanks, Chris.

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This transcript is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Gary Glover (AR 259215) is an Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168). Finer Market Points Pty Ltd, CAR 1304002, AFSL 526688.