Why Is Viva Energy (ASX: VEA) #5 on the FMP ASX 300 Momentum List?
- Christopher Hall
- 7 hours ago
- 13 min read
Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | July 2026
Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)
Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX: VEA) ranks #5 on the Finer Market Points ASX 300 momentum list as at 29 July 2026, carrying a momentum score of 0.1730 and a weekly gain of 9.80% — the 12th-strongest weekly move in the ASX 300 universe — alongside a 14.85% quarterly gain. The stock closed at A$2.76 on 29 July 2026, its 52-week high, and its highest close since January 2025. Viva Energy refines, imports and distributes fuel in Australia and operates a national convenience-retail network. The move follows a trading update in which the company disclosed first-half earnings roughly two and a half times the prior year's.
The Catalyst Is Company-Disclosed
In an ASX release on 28 July 2026, Viva Energy said unaudited Group EBITDA on a replacement-cost basis for the six months to 30 June 2026 was expected to be approximately A$770 million to A$780 million, against A$305 million in the first half of 2025. The company attributed the result to three things: elevated regional refining margins, growth in commercial and industrial sales volumes alongside favourable supply and hedging arrangements, and improved convenience and mobility performance on higher retail fuel sales.
The release also disclosed net debt of approximately A$1.7 billion at 30 June 2026, down from A$2.1 billion at 31 December 2025, which the company said was driven primarily by strong conversion of earnings to cash.
Where the Margin Came From
The single largest swing factor is the refinery. Viva Energy reported a Geelong Refining Margin of US$21.1 per barrel for the half, against US$8.2 per barrel in the first half of 2025 — an increase of 156.4% — on crude intake of 19.7 million barrels, itself up 4.5%. The company attributed the lift to disruption to oil flows from the Middle East, which reduced the production and availability of refined products and pushed regional refining margins higher. Energy and Infrastructure EBITDA is expected to be approximately A$353 million.
Two qualifications sit inside that number, both disclosed by the company. Geelong production was affected by a fire in the Alkylation unit on 15 April 2026; Viva Energy said production has since returned to over 90% of normal capacity following the restart of the Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit and associated units in June. And no Fuel Security Services Payment was received in the half, because the average Margin Marker was above the A$15.9 per barrel threshold at which the Commonwealth support mechanism engages — the refining margin was high enough that the safety net did not pay.
The Geelong Refining Margin is a non-IFRS measure calculated by Viva Energy as import parity price less cost of goods sold, expressed in US dollars per barrel. It involves elements of estimation, is not alone a measure of historical financial performance, and is only one contributor to replacement-cost underlying EBITDA.
The Two Retail-Facing Divisions
Commercial and Industrial sales volumes for the half were 5,865 megalitres, up 1.0%, which the company linked to continued strength in the resources sector and higher marine spot sales. Divisional EBITDA is expected to be approximately A$305 million. Viva Energy noted that this division benefited from favourable hedging and term supply arrangements put in place before the Middle East conflict, and stated those arrangements are expected to be less supportive through the second half.
Convenience and Mobility fuel volumes rose 2.4% to 2,625 megalitres, with divisional EBITDA expected at approximately A$138 million. Convenience sales of A$803 million were down 3.8%, but the composition matters: convenience sales excluding tobacco rose 1.3%, while tobacco sales fell 16.8% against the same period last year. Viva Energy said it expects to open approximately 20 to 25 new OTR stores in FY26, convert 10 to 15 Reddy Express stores, and convert 25 to 30 stores to an unattended self-service format following trials. Its core fuel and convenience network stood at 983 sites at 30 June 2026.
The Macro Backdrop the Margin Sits Inside
The refining margin is a function of an oil market that moved violently through the period. Finer Market Points' commodity research library records Brent crude trading between roughly US$102 and US$105 per barrel in late May 2026 during the naval blockade, then falling approximately 15% across the week of 16–18 June 2026 — the largest weekly decline in that reporting window — after a memorandum of understanding permitting Iranian oil sales was signed and Saudi tankers resumed crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Brent was around US$77 per barrel by 18 June. These figures are drawn from Dow Jones Newswires energy commentary and describe the crude market, not Viva Energy's realised margin, which is set by the spread between refined-product import parity and feedstock cost rather than by the crude price itself.
Finer Market Points has documented how equity markets typically behave through this kind of sequence in the oil price shock playbook for ASX traders.
What the Broker Notes Focused On
Analyst commentary reported by Dow Jones Newswires split on duration rather than on the result itself.
UBS, retaining a buy rating, told clients the first-half EBITDA was about 10% above consensus on beats from both the industrial and convenience divisions, and described the pivot toward refurbishing retail filling stations as self-serve 24-hour outlets as a step that reduces the capital-expenditure burden and probably improves returns in the current environment. UBS lifted its fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share forecast by 8% and raised its price target 3.7% to A$2.80. Shares were up 3.6% at A$2.745 at the time of that note, 12:35 AEST on 29 July 2026, and closed the session at A$2.76.
Jefferies analyst Michael Simotas had taken a more cautious view in a note dated 23 June 2026 — five weeks before the trading update. Jefferies argued refining margins were likely to remain elevated for some time, because crude and product supply would take a while to normalise and inventories to be replenished, and noted that a US sanctions waiver allowing Iran to transact in US dollars (expiring 21 August) likely reduces the discount on Iranian crude bought by Chinese refineries — which Jefferies read as positive for regional refining margins. On the same note Jefferies estimated Viva Energy's second-half Geelong Refining Margin at US$14.60 per barrel, below a market consensus it put at US$16.00, and retained a hold call.
These are third-party broker views reported by Dow Jones Newswires, reproduced here as market context. Finer Market Points does not endorse them, and their inclusion is not a recommendation. The Jefferies estimate predates the 28 July 2026 trading update.
The Move Behind the Ranking
The price history explains why Viva Energy's weekly rank and quarterly rank sit so far apart. The stock traded down to an intraday low of A$1.96 on 24 June 2026 and closed at A$2.76 on 29 July 2026 — a rise of approximately 40.8% across 25 trading sessions, on a stock whose quarterly momentum figure over a longer window is 14.85%. The quarter opened above the June low, so the quarterly number carries the drawdown into late June and understates the run that followed it. That gap is the arithmetic reason a company ranked #52 in the ASX 300 on quarterly performance ranks #12 on the week. Both endpoints and their dates are stated above; this is a historical price change, not indicative of future returns, and not a return available to any trader.
The A$1.96 figure is a recent low, not the 52-week low: Viva Energy's 52-week range runs from A$1.695 to A$2.76, and the 29 July close sat at the top of it.
A Confirmed Catalyst Arriving At a High
Closing at the 52-week high on the session after a trading update puts Viva Energy in a specific configuration. Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), reviews ASX momentum stocks in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points. His anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, speaks to it directly:
A long-awaited positive catalyst is most dangerous when it lands while a market is already extended — near a cyclical high, at a major resistance level, or in a seasonally weak window. Because the optimism was bought during the run-up ("the rumour"), the confirmation ("the fact") can leave little fresh demand.
Gary Glover frames this as a tendency, not a certainty — euphoric markets can extend well past the point at which they look exhausted. The mechanism is set out in full in buy the rumour, sell the fact. It is raised here as educational context for reading a result of this shape, not as a forecast for this company: the disclosed first-half figures and the company's own guidance that hedging arrangements will be less supportive in the second half are the facts on the record.
Why a Large-Cap Appears on an ASX 300 Momentum List
The ASX 300 is a different universe from the ASX as a whole. Ranking the 300 largest listed companies against one another removes the micro-caps that ordinarily dominate a whole-of-market momentum list — it is rare for a company of BHP, Commonwealth Bank or CSL scale to out-move a company with a fraction of its market capitalisation, and the strongest whole-of-market momentum therefore concentrates in the smallest names. Finer Market Points has documented that the leading percentage movers in commodity cycles consistently emerge from outside the ASX 300. Restricting the field measures something different: which large and mid-cap companies are re-rating fastest against their own peer group. Viva Energy at #5, on a market capitalisation of approximately A$4.5 billion, is that narrower measurement — not a whole-of-market ranking.
A new company can also enter a large-cap universe and lead it quickly — the rewritten Nasdaq-100 inclusion rule around the SpaceX listing being a recent illustration, examined in how index inclusion pulls on Australian super.
The Calendar Overlay
Viva Energy's 14.85% quarterly figure is measured across a window that straddles the Australian end of financial year — a period with a documented seasonal pattern. The foundational study by Brown, Keim, Kleidon and Marsh (1983), published in the Journal of Financial Economics, used Australia as its test case precisely because a July–June tax year predicts a July effect where the US calendar tax year predicts the January effect. Finer Market Points covers the mechanics in ASX best and worst performers FY2026. This is context for reading any quarterly figure spanning June and July; the catalyst Viva Energy itself disclosed is the refining margin and the first-half earnings result.
The ASX 300 Momentum Leaders — 29 July 2026
Rank | Code | Company | Momentum score | Q perf. (%) | Weekly perf. (%) |
1 | OFX | 0.3145 | +52.88 | +67.37 | |
2 | AMP | 0.2587 | +54.90 | +3.99 | |
3 | WEB | 0.2132 | +24.16 | +37.45 | |
4 | SGR | The Star Entertainment Group Limited (ASX: SGR) | 0.1843 | +20.95 | +5.83 |
5 | VEA | Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX: VEA) | 0.1730 | +14.85 | +9.80 |
6 | TLG | 0.1677 | +31.91 | +10.71 | |
7 | FBU | Fletcher Building Limited (ASX: FBU) | 0.1519 | +41.09 | +1.72 |
8 | ALL | 0.1338 | +38.77 | +4.90 | |
9 | SHV | Select Harvests Limited (ASX: SHV) | 0.1236 | +15.79 | +2.80 |
10 | CCP | Credit Corp Group Limited (ASX: CCP) | 0.1178 | +27.99 | +2.93 |
The table reports momentum scores only. It is not a ranking of the companies on investment merit, company quality or valuation.
Key Metrics
Metric | Value |
Rank (FMP ASX 300 momentum list, 29 July 2026) | |
Momentum score | 0.1730 |
Weekly performance | +9.80% (ASX 300 rank #12) |
Quarterly performance | +14.85% (ASX 300 rank #52) |
Sessions on the ASX 300 momentum Top 30 | 11 |
Launch Pad entry | 38 trading sessions ago |
Gain since entering the Launch Pad | +19.87% |
Share price, 29 July 2026 close | A$2.76 (session range A$2.59–A$2.76) |
Recent low | A$1.96 intraday, 24 June 2026 |
52-week low | A$1.695 |
52-week high | A$2.76 |
Market capitalisation (29 July 2026 close) | Approximately A$4.5 billion |
Sector (plain English) | Petroleum refining, fuel supply and convenience retail |
Data source | FMP Momentum Research, 29 July 2026 |
All ranks above are measured within the ASX 300 universe and are not comparable with the whole-of-market figures in the weekly ASX momentum leaders list, which ranks the full ASX and counts list tenure separately. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Viva Energy Group (ASX: VEA) do?
Viva Energy Group Limited is an Australian fuel and convenience business with a history spanning more than 120 years in Australia. It owns and operates the Geelong Refinery in Victoria, supplies fuels and lubricants to a network of nearly 1,550 service stations, and operates a retail convenience and fuel network of over 1,280 stores under the Express, OTR and Liberty Convenience brands. It also runs bulk fuels, aviation, bitumen, marine, chemicals, polymers and lubricants businesses supported by more than 25 terminals and 98 airports and airfields.
Why is Viva Energy in the FMP ASX 300 momentum top 10?
Viva Energy ranks #5 on the Finer Market Points ASX 300 momentum list as at 29 July 2026 with a momentum score of 0.1730. The score weighs price performance across more than one time window: its +9.80% weekly move ranks #12 in the ASX 300 universe, while its +14.85% quarterly gain ranks #52. The company has held a position on the ASX 300 momentum Top 30 for 11 trading sessions. A momentum-list appearance measures recent price performance only.
Why has Viva Energy's share price gone up so much?
Viva Energy released a trading update to the ASX on 28 July 2026 disclosing unaudited first-half 2026 Group EBITDA on a replacement-cost basis of approximately A$770–780 million, against A$305 million in the first half of 2025. The company attributed the result principally to elevated regional refining margins, with the Geelong Refining Margin at US$21.1 per barrel versus US$8.2 a year earlier. The share price moved from an intraday low of A$1.96 on 24 June 2026 to a close of A$2.76 on 29 July 2026. The weekly gain of 9.80% and quarterly gain of 14.85% are measured to 29 July 2026, and all of these are historical figures, not a guide to future returns.
Is Viva Energy near its 52-week high?
Viva Energy closed at A$2.76 on 29 July 2026, which is its 52-week high. Its 52-week low is A$1.695. Separately, the stock traded down to an intraday low of A$1.96 on 24 June 2026 before the run into late July — that June figure is a recent low, not the 52-week low. These are reported price facts only: a momentum-list ranking measures recent price performance, not company quality or valuation, and the position of a share price within its 52-week range says nothing about where it goes next.
What is the Geelong Refining Margin?
The Geelong Refining Margin, or GRM, is a non-IFRS measure Viva Energy uses to describe the performance of its Geelong Refinery. The company calculates it as the import parity price of the relevant refined products less the actual purchase cost of crude oil and other feedstock, expressed in US dollars per barrel. Viva Energy states that the measure involves elements of estimation, is not alone a measure of historical financial performance, and is only one contributor to replacement-cost underlying EBITDA. It reported a GRM of US$21.1 per barrel for the first half of 2026.
Is Viva Energy profitable?
Viva Energy is an established, revenue-generating company rather than a development-stage business — but a high revenue base does not guarantee a profit. In its most recently reported full financial year the company recorded revenue of approximately A$28.5 billion and a statutory net loss of approximately A$421 million, according to ASX company financial data. The 28 July 2026 trading update relates to unaudited first-half 2026 EBITDA on a replacement-cost basis, which is an earnings measure before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation and before inventory-value movements — it is not a statutory profit figure, and the audited result had not been released at the time of writing.
Is Viva Energy a top ASX 300 stock?
A momentum-list ranking is not an assessment of company quality, valuation or investment merit. Viva Energy is one of several ASX 300 companies showing strong recent price momentum, and its #5 position reflects price performance across the measured windows only. This is general educational information, not a recommendation.
How is the FMP ASX 300 momentum list different from the FMP ASX momentum top 10?
The two lists draw on different universes and are not interchangeable. The weekly Finer Market Points momentum list ranks the full ASX, where micro-cap and exploration companies typically produce the largest percentage moves. The ASX 300 list ranks only the 300 largest listed companies against one another, surfacing large and mid-cap re-ratings that a whole-of-market list rarely shows. Ranks, quarterly ranks and list-tenure counters are calculated within each universe separately.
Access the Research
Finer Market Points members access the weekly Top 30 ASX momentum data — the same proprietary research that flagged Viva Energy — 19 hours before the Gary Glover weekly session goes live. Join the Finer Market Points membership.
Sources
# | Source | Type |
1 | Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX: VEA), 28 July 2026, "1H26 Trading Update and Unaudited Financial Result" | ASX Announcement |
2 | Stuart Condie, Dow Jones Newswires, 28 July 2026, "Viva Energy Bulls Say Earnings Upgrade Cycle Is Underway — Market Talk" (UBS) | Analyst Note |
3 | David Winning, Dow Jones Newswires, 23 June 2026, "Viva Energy's Refining Margins Likely to Stay Elevated for Some Time — Market Talk" (Jefferies, Michael Simotas) | Analyst Note |
4 | Viva Energy Group Limited, 20 April 2026, "Geelong Refinery Update" | ASX Announcement |
5 | Viva Energy Group Limited, 23 June 2026, "Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit Restart at Geelong Refinery" | ASX Announcement |
6 | Dow Jones Newswires, Market Talks — Energy commentary, May–June 2026 (FMP Global Markets research library) | Industry Commentary |
7 | Finer Market Points, FMP ASX 300 Momentum Research, 29 July 2026; ASX market data and daily price history, 29 July 2026 close | Proprietary Research |
8 | Gary Glover, Finer Market Points recorded session, 16 June 2026 | Management Interview |
9 | Brown, Keim, Kleidon and Marsh, 1983, "Stock Return Seasonalities and the Tax-Loss Selling Hypothesis", Journal of Financial Economics | Academic Study |
Gary Glover's contribution is an anecdotal practitioner observation drawn from a recorded Finer Market Points session, not a formal study.
Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources
How Professional Traders React to Oil Price Shocks: The 3-Phase ASX Playbook
Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact: How a Market Catalyst Can Mark a Top
Why ASX Small-Cap Mining Stocks Outperform in a Resource Boom
Dogs of the ASX: FY2026 Performers and the EOFY Tax-Loss Selling Trap
The SpaceX IPO, Index Inclusion and Australian Superannuation
This article includes a general trading observation made by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded Finer Market Points session on 16 June 2026. The observation reflects Gary Glover's general approach and was not made in relation to Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX: VEA). Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes. Gary Glover has not independently reviewed or endorsed this publication.
Educational Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Consider your financial situation and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Finer Market Points Pty Ltd, CAR 1304002, AFSL 526688, ABN 87 645 284 680. This general information is educational only and not financial advice, recommendation, forecast or solicitation. Consider your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting. Seek appropriate professional advice. We accept no liability for any loss or damages arising from use. Authors and presenters may hold positions in discussed companies and investment products.
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