Why Is Neuren (ASX: NEU) #1 on the FMP ASX 300 Momentum List? A Record DAYBUE Quarter and an Upgraded Royalty Range
- Christopher Hall
- Aug 12
- 9 min read
Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | August 2026
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: NEU) is a Melbourne-based biopharmaceutical company whose approved Rett syndrome treatment, DAYBUE (trofinetide), is commercialised worldwide by its partner Acadia Pharmaceuticals under an exclusive licence. As at 11 August 2026, Neuren ranked #1 on the Finer Market Points ASX 300 momentum list with a quarterly return of 81.04% — the second-highest quarterly return in the ASX 300 universe that week — and a weekly return of 25.2%, ranked fourth in the same universe.
The catalyst: a record quarter and an upgraded royalty range
On 5 August 2026, Neuren reported that DAYBUE net sales for the second quarter of 2026 were US$125 million, up 30% on Q2 2025 and 24% on Q1 2026 — the highest quarterly sales since launch. Neuren's own royalty income for the quarter was US$12.9 million, up 34% on Q2 2025 and 24% on Q1 2026.
The guidance change matters more than the quarter. In the same 5 August 2026 announcement, Acadia raised its full-year 2026 DAYBUE net sales guidance to US$480–510 million from US$460–490 million, which Neuren stated implies full-year 2026 royalty income to Neuren of US$53–56 million, up from a previously implied US$50–54 million. Acadia also reaffirmed a target of US$700 million of DAYBUE net sales in 2028. These are forward-looking estimates made by Acadia and Neuren, not outcomes.
Neuren attributes the quarter's growth almost entirely to volume, and specifically to DAYBUE STIX — the powder formulation that became broadly available in the US from early April 2026. By the end of Q2 2026, 40% of all US DAYBUE patients were receiving STIX, and approximately 45% of STIX demand came from new or returning patients.
Neuren's Chief Executive Officer, Jon Pilcher, said in the 5 August 2026 announcement:
"We are pleased to see an exceptional quarter for DAYBUE, with very strong sales volume growth reflecting the early success of STIX in the US, as well as achievement of the positive CHMP opinion."
Two dated items behind the quarter
On 29 June 2026, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Medicines Agency adopted a positive opinion, following a re-examination procedure, recommending that the European Commission grant marketing authorisation for DAYBU (trofinetide) for neurobehavioral symptoms of Rett syndrome in adults and paediatric patients aged five years and older. If the Commission grants it, the authorisation would apply across all 27 EU member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, and Neuren would be entitled to US$35 million following first commercial sale in Europe, sales milestone payments of up to US$170 million on escalating annual net sales thresholds, and tiered royalties from mid-teens to low-20s percent of net sales. Commercial launch in Germany is anticipated in early Q4 2026, subject to that approval decision.
The financial base was set out earlier. In the Chairman's address of 27 May 2026, Neuren reported royalty income of A$65 million for the year ended 31 December 2025, up 15% on the prior year, profit after tax of A$30 million, and cash and short-term investments of A$296 million at year end against A$222 million twelve months earlier. Cumulative income from the Acadia licence since DAYBUE's April 2023 launch had reached A$525 million. Cash stood at A$293 million at 31 March 2026, and the company said it had paused its share buyback pending a capital-management review to be confirmed with its half-year results in August 2026.
Beyond DAYBUE, Neuren is running the Koala Phase 3 trial of NNZ-2591 in Phelan-McDermid syndrome — the first Phase 3 trial ever conducted for that disorder. As at 27 May 2026 it had seven sites activated with fourteen more nearing activation, and nine patients randomised. NNZ-2591 is an investigational medicine and is not approved for sale in any country. Topline results from Acadia's Japanese trofinetide trial remain on track for the September to November 2026 window, with a Japanese regulatory submission anticipated in 2027.
Key metrics
Metric | Value |
Rank (FMP ASX 300 momentum list, 11 August 2026) | 1 |
Momentum score (ASX 300 universe) | 0.3426 |
Weekly return (rank 4, ASX 300 universe) | +25.2% |
Quarterly return (rank 2, ASX 300 universe) | +81.04% |
Trading sessions on the ASX 300 Top 30 | 31 |
Trading sessions since ASX 300 Launch Pad entry | 31 |
Return since ASX 300 Top 10 Launch Pad entry | +40.36% |
Closing price (10 August 2026, last settled session) | A$23.00 |
52-week low | A$11.00 |
52-week high | A$23.67 |
Market capitalisation (at the 10 August 2026 close) | ~A$2.9 billion |
Sector (plain English) | Biopharmaceuticals — neurodevelopmental disorders |
Data source | FMP Momentum Research (11 August 2026, intraday capture); ASX market data (10 August 2026) |
All ranks above are measured within the ASX 300 universe and are not comparable with the whole-of-market figures in the weekly ASX momentum leaders list, which ranks the full ASX and counts list tenure separately.
The last settled close of A$23.00 on 10 August 2026 sits roughly 95% of the way up a 52-week range of A$11.00 to A$23.67. That is a factual position in the range and nothing more — a 52-week high is a record of where the stock has traded, not a level it is expected to reach, return to or hold.
The ASX 300 momentum board — 11 August 2026
# | Code | Company | Momentum score | Quarterly return | Weekly return |
1 | NEU | Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited | 0.3426 | +81.04% | +25.2% |
2 | FPR | FleetPartners Group Limited (ASX: FPR) | 0.2642 | +36.4% | +12.54% |
3 | CTT | Cettire Limited (ASX: CTT) | 0.2415 | +23.26% | +17.78% |
4 | AMP | 0.2247 | +56.33% | +8.56% | |
5 | MYX | Mayne Pharma Group Limited (ASX: MYX) | 0.2081 | +33.33% | +4.92% |
6 | OFX | 0.2074 | +44.25% | +1.87% | |
7 | JHX | James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) | 0.1939 | +52.67% | +9.92% |
8 | GMD | Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX: GMD) | 0.1936 | +15.64% | +26.72% |
9 | WEB | 0.1875 | +36.1% | +4.29% | |
10 | CSL | CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) | 0.1798 | +39.75% | +6.9% |
This table reports momentum scores measured within the ASX 300 universe as at 11 August 2026. It is not a ranking on investment merit, company quality or prospects.
Why an ASX 300 momentum list is a different measurement
The ASX 300 and the full ASX are two distinct universes producing two non-interchangeable measurements. Whole-of-market momentum concentrates in the smallest names, because a company the scale of BHP, CBA or CSL rarely out-moves a company with a fraction of its market capitalisation over a quarter. Christopher Hall's observation, drawn from his study of ASX thematic cycles, is that the leading percentage movers in commodity cycles consistently emerge from companies sitting outside the ASX 300 — set out in why ASX small-cap mining stocks outperform in a resource boom.
Restricting the field to the ASX 300 measures something different: which large and mid-cap companies are re-rating fastest against their own peer group. Neuren at roughly A$2.9 billion would not appear near the top of a whole-of-market percentage ranking dominated by micro-caps, and its #1 position here says it is the fastest re-rating name among its own size cohort. The exception to the general pattern is a new entrant to a large-cap universe, which can lead it quickly — the dynamic examined in what a SpaceX IPO and index inclusion would mean for Australian super.
The calendar the quarterly figure sits inside
Any quarterly figure measured across June and July sits inside the Australian end-of-financial-year window. Brown, Keim, Kleidon and Marsh (1983), in the Journal of Financial Economics, used Australia as their test case precisely because a July–June tax year predicts a July effect where the US calendar year predicts a January effect. The mechanics are set out in the ASX best and worst performers of FY2026.
That is context for reading any quarterly number spanning those months — not a cause. In Neuren's case the company has disclosed its own catalysts on the record: the CHMP positive opinion on 29 June 2026 and the record Q2 result with an upgraded royalty range on 5 August 2026.
The dated items still ahead
Four disclosed dates sit in front of the company, each of which will either confirm or test the figures above. Neuren's half-year results are due in August 2026, and the company said on 27 May 2026 that it would confirm the outcome of its capital-management review — including whether the paused buyback resumes or franked dividends commence — at that result. The European Commission's decision on the CHMP recommendation is expected in the months following 29 June 2026, with commercial launch in Germany anticipated in early Q4 2026 and a US$35 million payment to Neuren on first commercial sale in Europe. Topline results from the Japanese trofinetide trial are expected between September and November 2026, with a Japanese regulatory submission anticipated in 2027 and US$15 million payable on first commercial sale there. And the Koala Phase 3 trial continues to enrol toward its planned 160 randomised patients.
None of those dates is a forecast of price, and each is a company or regulator timetable that can move. They are listed here because a momentum ranking is a backward-looking measurement, and the dated catalogue of what has been disclosed is the part a reader can actually check.
Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the FMP ASX 300 momentum list different from the FMP ASX momentum top 10?
They measure different universes and are not comparable. The Finer Market Points ASX momentum top 10 ranks the full ASX, where the largest percentage moves come overwhelmingly from micro-cap and small-cap companies. The ASX 300 momentum list restricts the field to index constituents, so it measures which large and mid-cap companies are re-rating fastest against their own peer group. Rank, quarterly return, sessions on the Top 30 and Launch Pad tenure are all counted separately within each universe — the same company can show very different figures on the two lists in the same week, and both are correct.
What does Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU) do?
Neuren develops drug therapies for serious neurological disorders caused by genetic abnormalities or brain injury, targeting the role of insulin-like growth factor 1 in the brain. Its approved product, DAYBUE (trofinetide), treats Rett syndrome and is commercialised by Acadia Pharmaceuticals under an exclusive worldwide licence, with Neuren receiving royalties and milestone payments rather than selling the drug itself. Its investigational candidate NNZ-2591 is in a Phase 3 trial in Phelan-McDermid syndrome and is not approved for sale in any country.
Why has Neuren's share price gone up so much?
Neuren recorded a quarterly return of 81.04% as at 11 August 2026 within the ASX 300 universe on Finer Market Points momentum data. That quarter coincides with two dated disclosures: the CHMP positive opinion recommending EU marketing authorisation for DAYBU on 29 June 2026, and the 5 August 2026 report of record Q2 DAYBUE net sales of US$125 million with Acadia's full-year 2026 guidance raised to US$480–510 million, implying US$53–56 million of royalty income to Neuren. The sequence is documented coincidence in timing; no causal attribution to any single announcement is made here.
Does Neuren sell DAYBUE itself?
No. Neuren granted an exclusive worldwide licence to Acadia Pharmaceuticals for the development and commercialisation of trofinetide, so Neuren's DAYBUE income is royalty and milestone income rather than product revenue. For the year ended 31 December 2025 that royalty income was A$65 million, and cumulative income from the licence since the April 2023 launch reached A$525 million as reported on 27 May 2026.
Is Neuren near its 52-week high?
At its last settled close of A$23.00 on 10 August 2026, Neuren traded roughly 95% of the way up a 52-week range of A$11.00 to A$23.67. Those are reported prices, not levels the stock is expected to reach or hold, and a momentum-list ranking measures recent price performance over a defined window only.
What is Neuren's royalty guidance for 2026?
Following Acadia's 5 August 2026 upgrade of full-year 2026 DAYBUE net sales guidance to US$480–510 million, Neuren stated the implied full-year 2026 royalty income to Neuren is US$53–56 million, up from the previously implied US$50–54 million. Both figures are estimates derived from a partner's sales guidance and are subject to the forward-looking-statement caveats in Neuren's announcement.
Is Neuren a top ASX biotech stock?
Neuren is one of several ASX-listed healthcare and biotechnology companies, and is unusual among them in having an approved product generating royalty income rather than being pre-revenue. A momentum-list appearance measures recent price momentum within a defined universe and period — not company quality, pipeline value, balance-sheet strength or investment merit. This is general educational information, not a recommendation.
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FMP members access the weekly Top 30 ASX momentum data — the same proprietary research behind this ASX 300 ranking — 19 hours before the Gary Glover weekly session goes live. Find out more about FMP membership.
Sources
# | Source | Type |
1 | Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited, ASX announcement, 5 August 2026 — "Record Q2 DAYBUE® net sales of US$125m; CY26 royalty upgraded" | Company announcement |
2 | Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited, ASX announcement, 29 June 2026 — "DAYBU® (trofinetide) recommended for approval in the European Union" | Company announcement |
3 | Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited, ASX announcement, 27 May 2026 — Chairman's Address and CEO presentation, 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders | Company announcement |
4 | Finer Market Points Momentum Research — ASX 300 momentum dataset as at 11 August 2026 (intraday capture) | Proprietary data |
5 | ASX market data via markitdigital — closing price 10 August 2026, 52-week range and shares on issue | Market data |
6 | Brown, P., Keim, D. B., Kleidon, A. W. and Marsh, T. A. (1983), "Stock return seasonalities and the tax-loss selling hypothesis: Analysis of the arguments and Australian evidence", Journal of Financial Economics, 12(1), 105–127 | Academic research |
Educational Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Consider your financial situation and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Finer Market Points Pty Ltd, CAR 1304002, AFSL 526688, ABN 87 645 284 680. This general information is educational only and not financial advice, recommendation, forecast or solicitation. Consider your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting. Seek appropriate professional advice. We accept no liability for any loss or damages arising from use. Authors and presenters may hold positions in discussed companies and investment products.
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