When ASX Momentum Breadth Hits a Two-Year Low: The September 2022 Precedent
- Christopher Hall
- Jul 10
- 3 min read
Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated July 2026
When ASX momentum breadth hits a two-year low, it has historically coincided with market turning points rather than the start of a deeper decline. Christopher Hall's observation, drawn from the FMP Momentum Profile, is that the weakest breadth readings tend to appear close to lows, not far from them. This short note sits alongside the Momentum Profile filter system and explains the September 2022 precedent Gary Glover pointed to.
What a Two-Year Low in Momentum Breadth Has Signalled Before
The Momentum Profile is most often read for where the strength is — but its weakest readings carry information too. At the 10 July 2026 session, the FMP Momentum Profile — published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — showed top-30 momentum strength better than only about 2% of observations across the prior two years, with roughly 48% of the market trading above its 50-day moving average.
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that readings this weak tend to appear close to lows, not far from them. His dated reference point: 27 September 2022 registered one of the weakest momentum-profile readings in years — and it fell one week before the October 2022 low, which had not been surpassed since. Consistent with William O'Neil's teaching that leading stocks reassert relative strength before the market turns, the names that go on to lead the next advance tend to show that strength first, and can be back near their 52-week highs within about two weeks of the low.
This is a practitioner observation and a historical parallel, not a prediction. Weak breadth can persist, and no single reading times a turn — the point is that a compressed Momentum Profile is a condition to watch closely, not a signal to act on alone.
Watch the 10 July 2026 session this note draws on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBjLscWF6ao
Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a two-year low in momentum breadth mean?
It means the strength of the market's leading momentum stocks has compressed to its weakest level in about two years. Christopher Hall's observation from the FMP Momentum Profile is that such readings have historically coincided with market turning points rather than the start of a deeper leg down — a condition to watch, not a signal to act on by itself.
What happened on 27 September 2022?
Gary Glover's anecdotal reference point is that 27 September 2022 registered one of the weakest momentum-profile readings in years, one week before the October 2022 market low that had not been surpassed since. It is offered as a historical parallel, not a prediction — weak breadth can persist and no single reading times a turn.
Sources
# | Source | Type |
1 | Gary Glover (AR 259215), Novus Capital. FMP session, 10 July 2026. | Practitioner session |
2 | Christopher Hall, Finer Market Points. FMP Momentum Profile data, 10 July 2026. | FMP proprietary data |
3 | William O'Neil / IBD — relative strength reasserts before market turns. | Published research |
All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.
Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources
Analysis attributed to Gary Glover (AR 259215) reflects his anecdotal observations developed across his trading career, shared in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points. It is general commentary, not personal financial advice, and is not a formal study. Gary Glover is an Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168).
Educational Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Consider your financial situation and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Finer Market Points Pty Ltd, CAR 1304002, AFSL 526688, ABN 87 645 284 680. This general information is educational only and not financial advice, recommendation, forecast or solicitation. Consider your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting. Seek appropriate professional advice. We accept no liability for any loss or damages arising from use. Authors and presenters may hold positions in discussed companies and investment products.
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