JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman: Why Gary Glover Calls ASX Retail the Least-Crowded Trade
Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated October 2026
Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)
The least-crowded trade on the ASX, according to Gary Glover, is not a hot thematic — it is JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) and Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN), two retailers that have absorbed a year of selling on little more than a rate-hike narrative. Gary Glover, who reviews ASX momentum stocks in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points, has returned to this same contrarian setup across three separate sessions in September 2026 — and each time the thesis has held, even as the entry point has cheapened further.
Gary Glover reviews ASX value shares and sector rotation during a high-inflation trading environment — recorded 29 September 2026.
Why Does Gary Glover Call Retail the Least-Crowded Trade on the ASX?
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career and not a formal study, is that the most crowded trade invites the least opportunity, and the least-crowded trade the most. In a 15 September 2026 session, he contrasted copper — which he described as the most crowded trade in the market at the time, with everyone already positioned long — against JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman, which he characterised as among the least crowded, having already absorbed heavy selling on post-Budget interest-rate concern while trading on multiples and yields not seen in several years (sub-15x earnings, 5–5.5% yields). The logic runs opposite to the relative strength approach covered elsewhere on this site — here the setup sits in the names the market has already punished hardest, not the ones still running.
What Did the Chart Tell Gary Glover Earlier in September?
In an 8 September 2026 session, Gary Glover applied a separate but related observation: an old high on a chart often becomes new support once price retraces back down to it — and, if that level fails, it just as often becomes the new low a stock trades against. He applied this to JB Hi-Fi, which had retraced roughly two-thirds of its 2023-low-to-2025-high range back to a long-term trendline sitting near its old 2024 high, and to Harvey Norman, which had given back around three-quarters of the same range. He framed both as names nobody wants to touch while retail sentiment is weak — which in his experience is often close to where a low actually forms. It is the same kind of support/resistance role-reversal logic that sits alongside other chart-structure patterns Gary applies, including the cup-and-handle setup.
Did the September Reporting Season Confirm or Break the Setup?
JB Hi-Fi broke an ascending wedge during reporting season and gapped down below it on high volume — on the surface, a weak signal. Gary Glover's read, during the 29 September 2026 session, was more constructive: the stock has "basically halved" from its highs, trades under 15 times earnings with a yield over 5%, and in his words, "you just don't get to buy that sort of quality stock on those multiples." He added a demographic qualifier to the broader "discretionary spend is dead" narrative often applied to retail — some cohorts, notably younger people still living at home with fewer fixed costs, retain high discretionary spend — making a blanket pessimistic read on retail, in his view, too blunt an instrument. Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB) showed a smaller parallel the same session: it also reported well, sold off regardless, and returned to an old support line. The same contrarian logic has shown up before in sold-off sectors on this site, including agricultural stocks during the 2026 oil shock.
What Does This Mean for a Trader Watching These Stocks Now?
Across three sessions, Gary Glover's practitioner view has stayed consistent even as the entry point has cheapened further: a least-crowded setup is not the same as a low-risk one, and a contrarian position can extend lower before it resolves. This disclosure is made in accordance with the Gary Glover Source Disclaimer at the end of this article.
Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Gary Glover call JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman the least-crowded trade?
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation is that the most crowded trade invites the least opportunity and the least-crowded trade the most. He has described JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman as among the least-crowded names on the ASX, having absorbed heavy selling on rate-hike concerns while trading on compressed multiples and elevated yields rarely seen in recent years.
What chart pattern did Gary Glover apply to JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman?
He applied a support/resistance role-reversal read: an old high can become new support once price retraces to it, and the same level can become a new low if it fails. JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman had each retraced a substantial portion of their 2023–2025 trading range back toward that zone.
Did JB Hi-Fi's reporting season result confirm or break the setup?
JB Hi-Fi gapped down out of a chart pattern on high volume during reporting season, which looked bearish on the surface. Gary Glover's read was more constructive — the stock had become substantially cheaper on a price-to-earnings and yield basis, which he treated as reinforcing the contrarian case rather than breaking it.
Does a least-crowded trade setup mean lower risk?
No. Gary Glover's commentary across these sessions treats "least-crowded" as a description of positioning and valuation, not a risk rating — he has noted the setup can extend lower before it resolves, consistent with how contrarian trades typically behave.
About the Author
Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP, is an Authorised Representative (AFSL 526688) and the editorial lead at Finer Market Points, covering ASX-listed momentum stocks and market data for an Australian trading audience. Read more on the author's profile page.
Sources
# | Source | Type |
1 | Gary Glover, Finer Market Points recorded session, 8 September 2026. | Gary Glover session |
2 | Gary Glover, Finer Market Points recorded session, 15 September 2026. | Gary Glover session |
3 | Gary Glover, Finer Market Points recorded session, 29 September 2026. | Gary Glover session |
All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.
Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources
Why the Stocks That Fall the Least Are the Ones That Run the Hardest: Relative Strength as a Leading Indicator — Christopher Hall
Cup and Handle Pattern: ASX Systematic Guide — Christopher Hall
Why ASX Agricultural Stocks Are Showing Relative Strength While the Market Falls: The Oil Shock Play — Christopher Hall
This article includes general trading observations made by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded Finer Market Points session on 29 September 2026. The observation reflects Gary Glover's general approach and his anecdotal observations developed across his trading career — it is general commentary only, and is not a formal study, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade any security. It was made in the course of that session and not in response to any individual's circumstances. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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