The ASX Seasonal Peak Pattern: How a Stretched Valuation Turns a Repeating High Into a Pullback Signal — Woolworths, 2026
Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated September 2026
Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)
An ASX seasonal peak pattern is a stock repeating a price high around the same point on the calendar across multiple years — and it becomes a materially stronger caution signal when that repeat coincides with a valuation well above the stock's own historical range. Gary Glover, Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), who reviews ASX momentum stocks in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points, flagged exactly this combination on Woolworths (ASX: WOW) during the 1 September 2026 session: a repeating August price peak, and a price-to-earnings multiple sitting well above the stock's own history. This guide explains what the pattern is, how many years Gary has tracked it, why the stretched valuation sharpens the read, what pullback scenarios he is watching, and — the more useful lesson — whether the same lens applies beyond Woolworths to the rest of the ASX.
Gary Glover and Christopher Hall review the ASX momentum leaders — recorded 1 September 2026.
What Is the ASX Seasonal Peak Pattern, and Why Does It Matter for Blue-Chip Traders?
A seasonal peak pattern is a stock repeating a high, or a low, around the same calendar point across multiple years. It is useful context for a momentum trader — never a standalone trade signal. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that a recurring calendar pattern earns its place alongside other reads, not ahead of them. This is a practitioner observation, not a formal study.
The mechanism is straightforward once named: a company with a predictable reporting calendar, a defensive earnings profile, and a large, relatively stable shareholder base can develop a genuine seasonal rhythm — buying pressure builds into a reporting period, and selling pressure follows once the result is out and the next catalyst is further away. That rhythm shows up on a chart as a repeating high around the same month, year after year. It does not show up as a law of physics; it shows up as a tendency, and tendencies can break.
This is the same discipline behind Gary's evergreen three-condition sector rotation framework, discussed in more depth below — no single input is treated as sufficient on its own. A seasonal pattern earns its weight when it lines up with an independent read, such as a stretched valuation. Used alone, a seasonal tendency is trivia. Used as one leg of a two-leg check, it becomes something a blue-chip trader can actually act on with discipline — tighter risk management around a position, not a forecast of what happens next.
How Many Years Has Woolworths Peaked in August — and What Comes Next?
Woolworths has shown a recurring August price peak followed by fourth-quarter weakness across recent years, on Gary Glover's own chart review during the 1 September 2026 session.
"I wish I was more aware of it earlier. It's had a pretty strong seasonality bias — I think the last six years in a row here, we've had a pretty decent reaction." — Gary Glover, FMP session, 1 September 2026
Walking through the chart, Gary pointed to an August peak in each of the recent years he reviewed, followed by weakness into the final quarter of the year. This is a pattern Gary has tracked across recent Augusts — in this session he described it as running six years in a row; four days earlier, in the 28 August 2026 session, he independently flagged the same Woolworths pattern and put the count at five years. Rather than assert either bare number as settled fact, the honest summary is that Gary's own recall of the pattern's length has varied slightly between two sessions held days apart — a reminder that this is anecdotal chart-pattern recognition developed across a trading career, not a formal, back-tested count. This is a practitioner observation, not a formal study.
What matters more than the exact count is what Gary does with it: his own reflection was that he had not weighted the pattern heavily enough in the past. That kind of self-aware admission — flagging a pattern late rather than claiming to have called it in advance — is a stronger trust signal than a polished retrospective would be. It is also the reason this article treats the pattern as forward-looking context to monitor, not a settled rule to trade mechanically.
Why Does a Stretched Valuation Make a Seasonal Peak More Dangerous?
A stock trading well above its own historical earnings multiple has less valuation support beneath a seasonal pullback than one trading near its historical average. A seasonal tendency describes when a pullback might begin; a stretched valuation describes how far it can plausibly travel before it finds support from value-conscious buyers. Combine a repeating calendar high with a valuation extreme and both the timing risk and the depth risk point the same direction.
Gary put a specific figure on it:
"This stock is on about thirty-one, thirty-two times earnings — if we look at the ten-year average, that's on a very high side of where this stock typically trades." — Gary Glover, FMP session, 1 September 2026
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that Woolworths' historical multiple sits closer to 22–23 times earnings, averaging around 26 times in more recent years. The gap between that history and a current reading of 31–32 times is the valuation half of this article's pattern. It is measured the same way Gary measures the first condition in Gary Glover's three-condition sector rotation framework — against a stock's own history, not against the market in general — though in the opposite direction: that framework looks for a sector trading unusually cheap relative to its own history, while this read is a stock trading unusually expensive relative to its own history. The measurement discipline is the same; the two conditions sit at opposite ends of it.
Woolworths is not alone at this multiple. Gary drew a direct comparison to Commonwealth Bank:
"Everyone loves the little bit of security in CBA, but it's pretty pricey." — Gary Glover, FMP session, 1 September 2026
Company | Current P/E (Gary's read, 1 Sep 2026) | Typical historical range |
Woolworths (ASX: WOW) | ~31–32x | ~22–23x, averaging ~26x recently |
Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) | ~31–32x | Cited by Gary as a comparable stretched multiple, not separately broken down this session |
Both are large, defensive-leaning names carrying a similar premium multiple in the same session — Gary's anecdotal read is that the appeal in both cases is the perceived safety of the business, and that the market is paying a full price for that safety.
What Pullback Levels Should Traders Watch on Woolworths After an August Peak?
Gary's chart-derived levels frame two scenarios to monitor, not a forecast of what will happen next.
"I think this could come back to thirty-six pretty easily... about six to eight dollars there would probably be a pullback." — Gary Glover, FMP session, 1 September 2026
Scenario | Approximate level | Gary's framing |
Modest pullback | ~$36 | Described as achievable "pretty easily" against recent price levels |
Deeper pullback | ~$32 (a $6–8 retracement from levels near the session date) | Noted as a further, deeper scenario — not the base case |
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation from the 1 September 2026 session is that a pullback to approximately $36 is one plausible scenario, with a deeper pullback toward roughly $32 as a further possibility — not a prediction of which one occurs, or when. He also noted that some past instances of this kind of move on Woolworths have run deeper than either figure, which is a useful reminder that scenario levels are a starting point for risk planning, not a ceiling on how far a pullback can travel. Traders working through pullback depth more generally may find Fibonacci retracement on the ASX a useful companion framework — it sets out how far a pullback typically runs by security class, rather than for one stock in isolation.
The FMP Momentum Profile — accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — included relative strength and valuation-context readings across ASX blue-chip names at the time of the 1 September 2026 session, giving members early access to the educational data discussed in this article.
Is This Pattern Unique to Woolworths, or Does It Apply Across the ASX?
Several other ASX majors were reading as similarly extended in the same week Gary flagged the Woolworths pattern — which is the more useful, reusable lesson here. A seasonal-peak-plus-stretched-valuation read is a lens a trader can apply across ASX blue-chip names, not a Woolworths-specific quirk.
"Macquarie is probably the only one that hasn't had a decent pullback... it's going to have a fairly decent monthly reversal bar." — Gary Glover, FMP session, 1 September 2026
Macquarie (ASX: MQG) — the only major bank, on Gary's read, that had not yet pulled back this year; extended on the monthly chart and away from its longer-term moving average. Gary's anecdotal scenario is a pullback toward approximately $200, framed as a monthly-timeframe read rather than a near-term call.
BHP and Rio Tinto — carried over from Gary's commentary the prior week, both flagged as looking "pretty extended" and "pretty vertical" on his chart review.
This broader extension across several ASX majors is context that connects back to the mid-term-year seasonal weakness Gary discussed more generally this session — September and October are, on his own historical review, typically the two weakest months of a mid-term year, a pattern covered in more depth in how midterm election years affect markets.
Readers working through the mechanics of extension and profit-taking after a large move may also find ASX momentum profit taking explained directly relevant to how Gary reads a stock like Macquarie once it has moved a long way from its own moving average.
How Should a Momentum Trader Use a Seasonal-Plus-Valuation Signal Without Predicting the Market?
A repeating seasonal pattern plus a stretched valuation multiple is a reason to tighten risk management around a position — trailing stops, position sizing, watching for a genuine technical confirmation — not a reason to short a stock or exit blind ahead of a pattern that has not yet repeated.
This is the same discipline behind the buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact dynamic: a well-known, widely anticipated pattern arriving near a stretched valuation or a seasonally weak window is a recognised risk point worth extra attention, not a signal to act on mechanically. Markets can also extend well past where a seasonal-plus-valuation read would suggest caution is due — Gary's own commentary this session noted the broader market was not showing the aggressive distribution that would typically accompany a market top, even with several majors reading as extended.
The practical takeaway for a momentum trader is process, not prediction: treat the seasonal pattern and the valuation read as two independent checks, watch for a technical confirmation — a break of a key moving average, or a volume-backed reversal bar of the kind Gary applies to a stock like Macquarie — before acting, and size any position around that confirmation rather than around the calendar alone.
The supporting Momentum Profile data from the 1 September 2026 session is accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members.
Conclusion
The seasonal-peak-plus-stretched-valuation pattern on Woolworths is real, on Gary Glover's own chart review — but it is non-predictive. Woolworths' current ~31–32x P/E against a historical range closer to ~22–26x is the independent valuation input that sharpens the seasonal read; combined, the two arguments point toward tighter risk management around the pattern, not a forecast of what happens next. The same lens generalises: several other ASX majors, including Macquarie, Rio Tinto and BHP, were reading as similarly extended in the same week. Traders working through this material are best served watching for a genuine technical confirmation — a moving-average break or a reversal bar — rather than treating a repeating calendar high as a trigger on its own.
The analysis in this article draws on Gary Glover's recorded session and the FMP Momentum Profile data, which is published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members. Members receive early access to the educational data that forms the basis of articles like this one. The valuation and seasonal-pattern readings discussed above, from the 1 September 2026 session, are available to members. For information on FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership, visit the FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership page.
Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a seasonal peak pattern in ASX stocks, and can it be traded reliably on its own?
A seasonal peak pattern is a stock repeating a price high around the same point on the calendar across multiple years. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that a seasonal pattern works best as one input among several rather than a standalone trade signal — it describes recurring calendar behaviour, not a guaranteed repeat. This is a practitioner observation, not a formal study. Combining it with an independent read, such as a valuation check, is how experienced ASX traders typically use it.
How does Woolworths' current P/E multiple compare with its historical average?
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation from the 1 September 2026 session is that Woolworths was trading on roughly 31–32 times earnings, against a historical range he put closer to 22–23 times, averaging around 26 times in more recent years. This reflects Gary's own practitioner read on ASX-listed Woolworths specifically — not a universal retail-sector benchmark. A gap of this size between the current and historical multiple is the valuation half of this article's seasonal-plus-valuation pattern.
Does a stock always fall after hitting a seasonal peak?
No. A seasonal peak pattern describes a tendency observed across recent years, not a rule that repeats automatically. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation is that the pattern is a caution flag worth monitoring alongside other signals — such as valuation — rather than a trigger to act on by itself. Markets can extend well past where a seasonal pattern would suggest a top is due. Traders in this situation may wish to speak with a qualified financial adviser before acting on any trading decision.
What other ASX blue-chip stocks were showing signs of price or valuation extension in September 2026?
During the 1 September 2026 session, Gary Glover flagged several ASX majors reading as extended alongside Woolworths — Macquarie, which he described as away from its longer-term moving average and due a "fairly decent monthly reversal bar," plus BHP and Rio Tinto, carried over from his commentary the prior week. These are educational examples from a session watchlist, not recommendations, and their momentum-driven appearance in Gary's review is not an endorsement of any of the companies named.
How does Gary Glover combine valuation and seasonal chart signals when assessing a stock like Woolworths?
Gary Glover's anecdotal approach, developed across his trading career, is to treat a seasonal chart pattern and a valuation read as two independent checks rather than one combined signal — a stock can show one without the other. When both point the same direction, as with Woolworths' repeating August peak and its stretched P/E multiple in the 1 September 2026 session, Gary's practitioner view is that the combination carries more weight than either alone. This is a practitioner observation, not a formal study.
What is the difference between a seasonal bias and a technical sell signal?
A seasonal bias is a historical tendency for a stock or market to behave a certain way around a calendar point — useful context, not an entry or exit trigger. A technical sell signal, by contrast, is a specific chart-based confirmation, such as a break of a key moving average or a defined reversal bar. Gary Glover's anecdotal practice is to treat the seasonal bias as a reason to watch more closely for a genuine technical confirmation, not to act on the calendar alone.
How deep could a pullback go if Woolworths' seasonal pattern repeats in 2026?
Gary Glover's anecdotal scenario planning from the 1 September 2026 session names two levels to watch, not a forecast: a more modest pullback toward approximately $36, and a deeper pullback of roughly $6–8 that would take the stock toward approximately $32. Depth is measured against recent price levels near the session date, and Gary noted some past instances of this pattern have produced stronger moves than either scenario.
Sources
# | Source | Type |
1 | Gary Glover (AR 259215), Novus Capital. FMP Session, 1 September 2026. | Practitioner session |
2 | Gary Glover (AR 259215), Novus Capital. FMP Session, 28 August 2026 (cross-session reference — corroboration of Woolworths seasonal pattern count only, not quoted directly). | Session reference (no confirmed publication) |
3 | Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW), ASX Markets, accessed 1 September 2026, company financial data: https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/WOW | External Research |
4 | Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), ASX Markets, accessed 1 September 2026, company financial data: https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/CBA | External Research |
All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.
Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources:
How ASX Momentum Traders Identify Sector Rotation Opportunities Before the Catalyst Arrives — Christopher Hall
How Deep Should an ASX Pullback Go? Retracement Depth for the Index, Industrials and Miners — Christopher Hall
Midterm Election Year Stock Market Cycles: The Complete Guide for ASX Traders in 2026 — Christopher Hall
When ASX Momentum Breakouts Stop Working: Gary Glover's 50-Day Extension Rule and Pullback Entry Method for Difficult Markets — Christopher Hall
Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact: How a Market Catalyst Can Mark a Top — Christopher Hall
This article includes a general trading observation made by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded Finer Market Points session on 1 September 2026. The observation reflects Gary Glover's general approach and his anecdotal observations developed across his trading career — it is general commentary only, and is not a formal study, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade any security. It was made in the course of that session and not in response to any individual's circumstances. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The information, opinions and other materials appearing on this website are of a general nature only and shall not be construed as advice. Finer Market Points Pty Ltd, CAR 1304002, AFSL 526688, ABN 87 645 284 680. This general information is educational only and not financial advice, recommendation, forecast or solicitation. This is not taxation advice. Rose Bay Equities accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, opinions or other materials provided on or accessible through this website. This website has not been prepared with reference to your individual financial or personal circumstances. You should not rely on any advice on this website without first seeking appropriate professional, financial and legal advice. Further, where Rose Bay Equities makes third party material available or accessible through this website you acknowledge that Rose Bay Equities is a distributor and not a publisher of that content and that its editorial control is limited to the selection of those materials to make available. We accept no liability for any loss or damages arising from use. Authors and presenters may hold positions in discussed companies and investment products.
Comments