Why ASX Oil and Energy Stocks Often Peak by September: The Seasonal Pattern Gary Glover Watches
Written by Christopher Hall, AdvDipFP | Authorised Representative, AFSL 526688 | Updated September 2026
Analysis sourced from Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative, Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168)
The ASX oil and energy sector has historically shown a seasonal pattern of peaking around September before correcting into December, on Gary Glover's practitioner review of prior years. Gary Glover, Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), who reviews ASX momentum stocks in a recorded weekly session with Finer Market Points, flagged this pattern during the 11 September 2026 session while energy and commodity names were driving almost the entire momentum list. This guide sets out what the seasonal pattern is, why the sector was carrying so much of the list going into it, which ASX energy names were showing genuine technical strength, and how a momentum trader can use a seasonal read without treating it as a forecast.
What Is the ASX Oil and Energy Sector's Seasonal Pattern?
A recurring tendency in the oil and energy sector is for prices to run into a peak around September before working through a correction into the final quarter of the year.
"One of my sort of seasonal trades is to watch for a top in oil in September... September through to December is, is historically when some of the biggest corrections have occurred in energy and oil stocks." — Gary Glover, FMP session, 11 September 2026
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that this rhythm tends to repeat because the demand catalysts that support oil prices through the middle of the year fade going into the final quarter, drawing in selling that has been building beneath a strong sector. This is a practitioner-observed tendency, not a back-tested academic study, and it is not a guaranteed repeat — a strong enough underlying trend can push through a seasonally weak window regardless.
Why Was the Energy Sector Carrying So Much of the ASX Momentum List in September 2026?
Commodity and energy names accounted for almost the entire momentum list Gary Glover reviewed in the 11 September 2026 session.
"I think so far, I guess that ninety five percent of the stocks we've covered today have been commodities driven. So yeah, it tells you that tells you everything." — Gary Glover, FMP session, 11 September 2026
Against a market Gary described as difficult to trade more broadly, capital was concentrating into a small number of sectors rather than spreading evenly — and commodities, energy included, were where that concentration was landing. This pattern connects directly to Gary Glover's sector rotation approach: a sector absorbing this much of a momentum list is itself a signal worth tracking, independent of any single stock within it.
The FMP Momentum Profile — accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members — included sector-concentration and Launch Pad readings at the time of the 11 September 2026 session, giving members early access to the educational data discussed in this article.
Which ASX Energy Names Were Showing Technical Strength Heading Into the Seasonal Window?
Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) and Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) were both shaping constructive technical setups in the same week Gary Glover flagged the seasonal pattern.
"It wouldn't surprise me to see Woodside go back and retest that prior high there. So that sector definitely looks pretty robust there." — Gary Glover, FMP session, 11 September 2026
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation is that both names were displaying the tightening price action characteristic of a VCP base forming before a breakout — a stock consolidating in progressively smaller price ranges as sellers are absorbed — even with the oil price itself already looking extended on a short-term view. Gary's own caveat was that the broader energy trade remained robust enough that he "wouldn't be fighting" it despite that near-term extension.
How Should a Momentum Trader Use a Seasonal Pattern Without Treating It as a Forecast?
A seasonal tendency is a risk-management input to weigh alongside other signals, not a standalone trigger to buy or sell.
"Are you in a bull or bear market? Are you in the early stages of a bull market or the late stages? What kind of traction are you getting in your own trading? That's the real key." — Mark Minervini, Trader Line Conference 2025
Mark Minervini's point — that recognising what kind of market or cycle is actually in play matters more than any single signal in isolation — applies directly to a seasonal sector read: a September peak pattern is one input describing where a sector sits in its own cycle, and it earns more weight when it is confirmed by genuine technical structure rather than acted on alone. Gary Glover's own approach reflects the same discipline — flagging the seasonal caution while still describing the current energy setups as strong enough that he "wouldn't be fighting these at the moment." For a different kind of oil-driven volatility — a sudden geopolitical price shock rather than a calendar-based pattern — see ASX oil price shock strategy, which sets out a distinct three-phase framework.
Conclusion
The ASX oil and energy sector has shown a recurring tendency to peak around September before correcting into the final quarter of the year, on Gary Glover's own practitioner review — a tendency, not a guaranteed repeat. Energy and commodity names were carrying almost the entire ASX momentum list heading into this year's window, and Karoon Energy and Woodside were both showing genuine technical strength within it. Traders working through this material are best served treating the seasonal pattern as one input to weigh against confirmed technical structure, in the spirit of Mark Minervini's broader point that recognising the type of cycle in play matters more than any single signal alone.
The analysis in this article draws on Gary Glover's recorded session and the FMP Momentum Profile data, which is published daily and accessible to FMP YouTube Momentum Profile members. Members receive early access to the educational data that forms the basis of articles like this one. For information on FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership, visit the FMP YouTube Momentum Profile membership page.
Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ASX oil and energy sector's seasonal pattern?
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation, developed across his trading career, is that the oil and energy sector shows a recurring tendency to peak around September before working through a correction into the final quarter of the year. This is a practitioner-observed tendency, not a back-tested academic study, and it does not repeat automatically every year.
Why do oil and energy stocks often peak by September?
Gary Glover's anecdotal reasoning is that the demand catalysts supporting oil prices through the middle of the year tend to fade going into the final quarter, drawing out selling that has been building beneath a strong sector trend. This is a general seasonal tendency he watches as one input among several, not a mechanical rule.
Does the seasonal pattern mean energy stocks should be avoided after September?
No. Gary Glover's own view during the 11 September 2026 session was that the broader energy trade still looked robust enough that he "wouldn't be fighting" it despite the seasonal caution. A seasonal tendency is a reason to watch more closely for genuine technical confirmation — such as a break of trend or a failed setup — rather than a trigger to exit or avoid the sector outright.
What is a VCP setup, and how did it apply to Karoon Energy and Woodside in September 2026?
A VCP, or volatility contraction pattern, is a stock consolidating in progressively smaller price ranges before a potential breakout to new highs. Gary Glover's anecdotal observation from the 11 September 2026 session is that both Karoon Energy and Woodside were displaying this kind of tightening price action, which he read as constructive even with the oil price itself looking extended on a short-term view. These are educational examples from a session watchlist, not recommendations.
How does sector concentration, like 95% of a momentum list being commodities-driven, inform a trader's positioning?
Gary Glover's anecdotal observation is that when a very high proportion of a momentum list is concentrated in one sector, it signals that capital is rotating narrowly rather than spreading evenly across the market — itself a signal worth tracking alongside the seasonal pattern and any individual stock setup. This connects to Gary Glover's broader sector rotation approach, which looks for this kind of concentration as one of several accumulation signals.
Sources
# | Source | Type |
1 | Gary Glover (AR 259215), Novus Capital. FMP Session, 11 September 2026. | Practitioner session |
2 | Mark Minervini, Trader Line Conference 2025. | Published research |
All Gary Glover observations in this article are anecdotal practitioner observations developed across his trading career — not formal studies.
Related Finer Market Points Educational Resources:
How Professional Traders React to Oil Price Shocks: The 3-Phase ASX Playbook — Christopher Hall
From Energy to Growth: The 3-Signal Framework Gary Glover Uses to Identify the Next ASX Market Leaders — Christopher Hall
What is a VCP Pattern? Mark Minervini's Volatility Contraction Pattern Explained — Christopher Hall
This article includes a general trading observation made by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded Finer Market Points session on 11 September 2026. The observation reflects Gary Glover's general approach and his anecdotal observations developed across his trading career — it is general commentary only, and is not a formal study, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade any security. It was made in the course of that session and not in response to any individual's circumstances. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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