18-Month Market Low: 80% of Traders Are Losing Money — But the Top 30 ASX Momentum List Still Shows Where the Diamonds Are
- Christopher Hall
- Mar 28
- 12 min read
When roughly 80% of traders in the US Investing Championship are currently unprofitable — and the ASX is sitting in the bottom 1% of all historical observations, approximately 42% harder than normal to trade — one question becomes urgent: where do disciplined momentum traders look?
According to Gary Glover, Authorised Representative of Novus Capital, the answer comes down to two disciplines that professional traders maintain regardless of market conditions: a systematic process that surfaces genuine relative strength leaders before everyone else notices them, and strict position sizing that keeps risk manageable until conditions improve.
This walkthrough of Gary's Top 30 Momentum List and Launchpad — produced on 10 March 2026 — demonstrates exactly how those two disciplines work together when the majority of the market is in decline.
Why This Is One of the Hardest ASX Markets to Trade in 18 Months
The data from this session paints a sobering picture. Gary referenced figures showing that in the US Investing Championship — a competition that attracts above-average, self-directed traders — fewer than 20% of participants are currently in profit for 2026. To contextualise that: the historical range across prior years runs from a low of 10% in the difficult 2022 market to a high of 38% coming off the COVID recovery in 2020. The average sits somewhere around 20–27% in healthy years.
More relevant to ASX traders: current conditions register in the bottom 1% of all historical observations, approximately 42% harder than a normal trading environment. Only around 15% of ASX stocks are currently trading above their 50-day moving average.
That last figure is critical. Research and practical trading experience both indicate that the statistical likelihood of generating a 10% gain or more within a month is substantially higher for stocks trading above their 50-day moving average. In a market where only 15% of stocks pass that basic threshold, the viable opportunity set is extremely narrow — which is precisely why a systematic momentum ranking process matters more, not less, during difficult conditions.
Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all trading involves risk.
How the Top 30 Momentum List Works as a System
Each Thursday afternoon, FMP members receive the same Top 30 Momentum List that Gary reviews on Friday mornings — a ranking of the strongest quarterly performers on the ASX, updated weekly. Members submit their analysis requests, mark up their own charts, and Gary walks through his assessment of the key names.
The list does two things simultaneously. First, it surfaces stocks demonstrating genuine relative strength — the names holding near 52-week highs while the broader market weakens around them. Second, it identifies which names have been on the list for multiple consecutive sessions, indicating sustained institutional interest rather than a one-off price spike.
In this session, Elixir Energy (EXR) had appeared on the momentum leaders list for 32 consecutive sessions. Solstice Minerals (SLS) had been there for 37. Dateline Resources (DTR) and others were maintaining similarly persistent rankings. That persistence is a signal in itself: in a market where most stocks are being dragged lower, these names are finding consistent buying support session after session.
The companion Launchpad list takes the approach a step further by identifying stocks that haven't yet broken out but are showing the early-stage accumulation characteristics that often precede a significant move. Both Catapult Sports (CAT) and EDU Holdings (EDU) appeared in Gary's Launchpad shortlist this week — with instructive results discussed below.
For a deeper understanding of how these ranking systems connect to pattern identification methodology, the Complete VCP Trading Guide for ASX Markets explains the full framework.
Six Educational Chart Concepts from the Top 30 Walkthrough
Elixir Energy (EXR): Why Sector Strength Is a Double Tick
EXR illustrated what Gary calls a "double tick" setup: a strong-looking chart and a strong sector alignment. Energy is currently the strongest ASX sector, and EXR operates within it. Research going back to 1993 suggests that approximately two-thirds of a stock's directional move is driven by its sector's performance — a finding Gary cites from Weinstein's work and uses to frame every chart assessment.
Beyond sector alignment, EXR is trading near its 52-week highs and appears to be forming a potential VCP — a series of progressively tighter pullbacks following an extended uptrend, with each swing lower contracting in both magnitude and duration. Maintaining higher lows whilst the broader market weakens is precisely the relative strength behaviour that precedes meaningful upward moves.
The full methodology for identifying these setups is covered in How Mark Minervini Finds High-Probability VCPs: The ASX Sector Strength Method.
Dateline Resources (DTR): VCP Mechanics in a Smaller Name
DTR generated significant member request volume this session. The stock had traced a series of progressively tighter contractions following a deep correction: pull back, recover, pull back, recover again — with the whole structure tightening each time and volume dropping off during the corrective phases. The trigger through the consolidation high represented what Gary assessed as a valid VCP entry at that stage.
The key educational point concerns how smaller stocks interact with moving averages. Rather than anchoring a stop-loss to the 50-day moving average as one might with a larger-cap name, Gary's preference for DTR is to follow the swing lows — specifically, holding above the 41.5 cent level as the reference point for managing the position. Smaller names don't respect moving averages as predictably as liquid large-caps; price structure becomes the primary guide instead.
Further detail on DTR's fundamental picture is available here.
Solstice Minerals (SLS): Pullback in Time, Not Just Price
SLS had an impulsive big move on strong volume, followed by what Gary characterised as a pullback in time rather than price — sitting approximately two months into its corrective phase at the time of analysis. Corrective phases following big moves can run two to three months, sometimes extending to five or even seven months, so SLS remains relatively early in the consolidation cycle.
The key observation: volume was starting to return on up days whilst pulling back on lighter-than-average volume — a constructive pattern suggesting the correction is orderly and demand is beginning to reappear. Gary flagged this as one of the more interesting-looking charts on the full list because of that volume dynamic.
Superloop (SLC): Weekly Chart Strength in a Strong Sector
SLC benefits from the same sector logic that applies to EXR, but in telecommunications rather than energy — another area Gary identifies as currently showing sector-wide strength. On a weekly timeframe, SLC shows a powerful long-term trend. The recent correction pulled it back to sit directly on top of a prior swing high — a level that, from a trend structure perspective, preserves the possibility of resuming towards a new high.
Gary also noted a "spring" price action pattern: a brief washout below a support level followed by a sharp recovery off the lows. This type of price action — often described as holding a basketball underwater before it pops — can indicate that selling pressure has been absorbed and buyers are stepping back in off the lows.
Catapult Sports (CAT): What an Episodic Pivot Reaction Tells You About the Whole Market
CAT appeared in the Launchpad shortlist and delivered what Gary described as one of the strongest earnings results he had seen in twelve months: revenue up approximately 25–26%, earnings tracking toward roughly 50% growth for the full year, and a pathway to becoming debt-free. Under normal market conditions, Gary's expectation for a result of this quality would be an episodic pivot — a gap-up followed by a continuation higher throughout the session.
Instead, CAT gapped up, traded higher in the first hour or two, then gave back all of its gains to close only a few cents above the open. Gary's interpretation was unambiguous: "When you get a great result and the tape sells off and doesn't show strength, that's just telling you the strength of the market at the moment."
This is one of the most important diagnostic tools available to a momentum trader. The market's reaction to strong news is more informative than the news itself. A great result that fails to hold is the market communicating that it is not yet ready to reward growth stocks — regardless of how strong the underlying business performance is. For more on how these catalyst-driven setups work when broader conditions are right, the Complete Guide to Episodic Pivot Trading covers the full framework including entry criteria, position sizing, and risk management.
EDU Holdings (EDU): The B-Wave Entry in a False-Break Environment
EDU had tightened up in its corrective phase with a potential B-wave break forming — a setup Gary watches closely. However, the stock broke to a minor new high and then pulled back to a new low, illustrating the primary hazard of chasing breakouts in current conditions.
Gary's preferred approach in this type of market is to wait for the B-wave break and then allow the stock to pull back and retest the 20-day moving average before entering — a safer confirmation level that reduces exposure to false breaks. The patience-based adjustment acknowledges that in a market where even exceptional news fails to hold (see: CAT above), requiring secondary confirmation before committing capital is a rational risk management adaptation.
Other names briefly assessed: Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) and TNE were holding the 10-day moving average and maintaining higher lows despite broad market weakness. Tasmea (TEA) showed a short handle that Gary felt lacked the rounding needed for a high-confidence setup. ELV, ATX, MRD, and FXG all displayed the characteristic pattern of a big impulsive move followed by a contracting corrective phase — the type of setup worth monitoring for a potential second leg once conditions improve. Eagers Automotive (APE), PNI, SRL, ROC, and LTR each received brief assessments, with LTR flagged as a watch despite Gary's broader caution around commodity-linked names given the Australian dollar's recent weakness.
Why Sector Strength Accounts for Two-Thirds of a Stock's Move
The two-thirds figure Gary references is one of the most practically actionable statistics in momentum trading — and it significantly changes how traders should prioritise their research time.
Research going back to the early 1990s demonstrates that approximately 2/3 of a stock's directional move is driven by the performance of the sector it belongs to, rather than the individual company's fundamentals or chart pattern alone. Stan Weinstein's work documents this relationship, and Minervini's SEPA methodology explicitly incorporates sector screening as a prerequisite before evaluating individual charts.
The practical implication: a strong chart in a weak sector has substantially lower odds than a strong chart in a strong sector. EXR in energy and SLC in telecommunications both benefited from this alignment in this session. Names in struggling sectors, regardless of how constructive their individual chart might look, face a structural headwind that the majority of retail traders underestimate.
For a detailed breakdown of how to apply sector filters to ASX momentum stock selection, see How Mark Minervini Finds High-Probability VCPs: The ASX Sector Strength Method.
How Professional Traders Adjust Position Sizing When Markets Are This Difficult
Perhaps the most practically valuable part of this session was Gary's commentary on position sizing — the discipline that separates traders who survive difficult periods from those who suffer avoidable drawdowns.
Gary's current approach: remain underweight overall, play smaller position sizes on high-beta names, and reframe performance expectations accordingly. His target framing for the year illustrates the mindset shift: "If I end up at 8 or 10% and the market's down two or three, that's a good year."
The reasoning behind staying partially active rather than moving entirely to cash is worth examining. Gary referenced his own experience being short into a geopolitical conflict, only to have the market rip sharply for several days as the situation resolved faster than anticipated. The lesson: when macro uncertainty is elevated, taking large directional positions — long or short — carries significant event risk that can override even well-reasoned technical analysis. Playing smaller removes the pressure to be perfectly timed whilst keeping a trader engaged with the setups that will eventually break out when conditions shift.
This connects directly to the Minervini principle of scaling position sizes to overall market conditions — being fully invested only when the weight of evidence supports it, and significantly underweight when it does not. A full treatment of position sizing mechanics appears in VCP Trade Execution on ASX: Minervini's Entry, Position Sizing & Exit Strategies.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Top 30 Momentum List on ASX?
The Top 30 Momentum List ranks the strongest quarterly performers on the ASX by price performance over the prior 90 days. FMP members receive this list each Thursday afternoon, 19 hours before public release — the same list Gary Glover reviews on Friday mornings. Stocks that maintain their ranking across multiple consecutive sessions demonstrate sustained institutional interest rather than a single-session price spike.
Why does only 15% of the ASX being above the 50-day moving average matter for momentum traders?
Research and practical experience both indicate that the probability of generating a meaningful gain — 10% or more within a month — is substantially higher for stocks trading above their 50-day moving average. When only 15% of the market passes this basic threshold, the viable opportunity set becomes very narrow. This makes a systematic screening process essential rather than optional: intuition-based stock selection in this environment carries far higher odds of landing in the 85% of stocks trending downward.
What is the Launchpad in FMP's methodology?
The Launchpad is a forward-looking list identifying stocks showing early-stage accumulation characteristics that often precede a breakout move. It is designed to flag potential leaders before they appear on broader momentum rankings, giving members a head-start on identifying rotation and sector leadership shifts before they become obvious to the wider market.
What does it mean when strong earnings fail to hold a gap-up open?
When a company reports strong results and the stock gaps up but gives back all gains by the close, it indicates that institutional participants are not adding to positions in response to the news. In momentum trading terms, this is a diagnostic signal of market-wide weakness — the market is not yet in a condition where it rewards growth stocks, regardless of individual company performance. Gary's analysis of the Catapult Sports (CAT) result on 10 March 2026 is a textbook example of reading tape reaction over news quality.
How should ASX momentum traders adjust their approach in a market 42% harder than normal?
The primary adjustment is to reduce position sizes rather than stop trading entirely. Playing smaller on high-beta names keeps a trader active and engaged with developing setups whilst limiting the downside if conditions remain difficult. The secondary adjustment is to raise the quality threshold: focus only on stocks meeting multiple criteria simultaneously — sector strength, relative strength near 52-week highs, trading above the 50-day moving average, and a constructive chart pattern showing contraction.
What is a VCP pattern and why does it still work in a difficult market?
A Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) is a chart formation identified by Mark Minervini where a stock consolidates with progressively tighter price swings before breaking out. Each successive pullback is smaller in magnitude than the last, indicating that selling pressure is diminishing. In difficult markets, genuine VCP formations become rarer and more selective — but when they do appear in strong sectors with strong relative strength, they represent the highest-quality setups available. The Complete VCP Trading Guide for ASX Markets covers identification criteria in full.
Key Takeaways
Current ASX market conditions are genuinely difficult — bottom 1% of all historical observations, approximately 42% harder than normal, with only 15% of stocks above the 50-day moving average. That is not a reason to abandon the process. It is a reason to run the process more rigorously, size down, and raise the quality threshold for every trade taken.
The stocks holding near 52-week highs right now, in strong sectors, with constructive volume patterns and persistent momentum rankings, are the names that will lead the next phase when conditions improve. The traders who are learning and refining their methodology during this period are the ones who will be ready when the environment shifts.
FMP members receive the Top 30 Momentum List every Thursday afternoon — 19 hours before public release. [Explore membership options here.]
About This Content
This article is based on analysis and commentary provided by Gary Glover (AR 259215), Authorised Representative of Novus Capital Limited (AFSL 238 168), during a recorded market analysis session on 27 March 2026. Content has been edited and summarised by Finer Market Points for educational purposes. Gary Glover has not independently reviewed or endorsed this publication.
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This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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